Quantium data analysis: True player ownership stats, Round 12

After many weeks or even months of planning, the first ‘big’ bye week is finally upon us. 

The big bye weeks are unquestionably the most important three weeks of the season in determining your overall rank.  A high score can see you soar up the rankings – but a heavily depleted squad can end your season in terms of overall glory.

The changes to rules this year make it lightly easier than previous years, no doubt many Supercoaches are panicking due to the state of their squad. 

Let’s take a look at the ownership of each player eligible for Round 13 and then see how the top 100,000 teams are placed in terms of starting numbers pre trades this week – you might not be as badly placed as you think!

BREAK AWAY FROM THE PACK with Quantium, Australia’s premier data science and artificial intelligence company. Create your own career power play and join the team today. Visit our website for more information. CEO Adam Druissi is a contributor to SC Playbook.

FLB (non-DPP)

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback – filtered to only include players available this week.

With Reece Walsh selected for Queensland, the vast majority of teams have no fullback available prior to trades this week.  The table below shows non-dual FLBs (so excludes the likes of Rueben Garrick and Kalyn Ponga).  Aside from Clint Gutherson (owned by just 14% of the top 1,000 teams) and Scott Drinkwater (3%), there are very few fullbacks even available for selection!

With the Eels and Cowboys having a bye in rounds 14 and 15 respectively, I’m not sure I’d be rushing to pull my team apart to bring in either guy at this point.  Gutherson at least plays the big three bye rounds.

CTW

The most commonly owned CTWs playing Round 13 amongst the top 1,000 teams are Rueben Garrick (90% owned), Greg Marzhew (49%), Jarrod Croker (42%) and Alex Johnston (33%).

Lachie Miller’s relegation to the bench impacts 20% of the top 1,000 teams.

12% of the top 1,000 are delighted to have Campbell Graham playing after not being selected in the Blues side.

5/8

Five-eighth is the least impacted position in Round 13.  Aside from Cameron Munster (owned by 19% of the top 1,000), Dylan Brown, Cody Walker, Isaiya Katoa and Josh Schuster are all available and heavily owned at five eighth.

HFB

Half back is arguably the most impacted position during origin with Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary owned by 98% and 93% of the top 1,000 teams respectively.

2RF

Not an easy week at 2RF with 3 of the top 5 owned 2RFs unavailable (Preston, Fifita and Hosking).  Bearing in mind that most teams would likely own Tapine and Horsburgh at FRF, that leaves the likes of J’Maine Hopgood, Jackson Ford, Jack De Belin and Connelly Lemuelu to get the job done for teams. 

8 of the top 100 own Toby Couchman and would have been chuffed with his first half try against the Dolphins.

FRF

Whilst Payne Haas is unavailable this week, teams have 1.5 FRFs on average pre-trades led by Joseph Tapine (owned by 65% of the top 1,000), Big Red (25%), Tohu Harris (22%), Jack De Belin (20%) and AFB (20%). 

HOK

With Harry Grant owned by 80% of the top 1,000 teams, only a third of Supercoaches ended Round 12 with a hooker playing Round 13.  With Damien Cook not selected in Origin, at the time of writing almost 20,000 teams have traded him into their side for Round 13 (including me).

Results

Players Available in Round 13

The table below sets out the distribution of numbers of players available for selection in Round 13 by rank – prior to any trades this week.   Note that only 6% of teams in the top 10,000 has 13 or more players available pre trades! 

One team in the top 100 (the team coming 7^th) has just 4 players – and one of those is Valynce Te Whare who is selected on the Dolphins bench!  I’d suggest that team takes a screenshot of their top 10 position while they can!

In my case, I’m roughly 30,000^th (yes, rough season) and have 10 players pre trades.  So looking at the table below, just 32% of teams ranked ahead of me have more players than me – and 48% have less than me.  So hopefully I am well positioned to make a decent jump up the rankings.

The final row in the table shows the average number of players available for selection by ranking zone.  So, on average, the top 100 teams have 10.1 players available and the top 10,0000 teams have 9.5.  Bear in mind that not all of these players are equal of course! 

The chart below sets out the average number of players available for the top 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams again and so on.  As you can see, teams near the lead are more prepared for the bye – but as the table shows, there are still plenty of teams in poor shape.  Hence why bye rounds provide the greatest opportunity for ranking moves than any other rounds.

For those in the top 2,000, I’ve further broken down the average ownership in groups of 100 in the chart below.  Again, almost every group of 100 teams is slightly better placed than the next 100 teams behind them.

With teams short of players, everyone gets a double shot at captaincy this week – use it wisely!

Good luck again to everyone in Round 13! 

Do you ever feel uneasy with how much you’re gambling with? You’re not alone, footy fans love a punt, but sometimes it can get a bit out of control. There’s help available with Gareth Wyatt and the team at CECAL. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, so make the call and get in contact here: https://bit.ly/3L2yG1W