Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 12

The climb up the overall rank comes to a halt with the Sean Darcy injury which cuts deep. 

2324 was my score which saw me slide a little.  

The whole O’Neill out and back in really messed with my VC and cost me 50 points as I did initially have it on Sicily. 

Together with the rookie carnage, I had to keep and field JVR for his 55, so all in all it was a weekend to forget. 

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Throw in the suspension to Sicily, and the rookies who have died, and I’m nearly ready to throw in the towel. 

Selection on Thursday better be kind!  I think I’ll be able to field 18, just.

This time last week I thought I was setup nicely for the byes, but those plans have nearly been made redundant.  I might have to get creative to get out of this mess. 

I have 14 trades left, three premium spots to fill, and a ruck injury to deal with.

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My Watchlist

Christian Petracca (MID $655.7k) – Another great score and a luxury trade target, or someone to bring in for an injury perhaps.

Zac Butters (MID/FWD $652.1k) – Continues to do the business but is way too expensive.

Jarrod Witts (RUC $605.1k) – I need a Darcy replacement and he fits the bill perfectly with his bye, but can I afford to get Oliver back in if I bring him in?

Tim English (RUC $592.1k) – His price is still tumbling.  Do I bring him in now, or put a band aid in place until after his bye?  He’s not completely dominating as he once was.

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Andrew Brayshaw (MID $581.1k) – One to consider after this weekend’s bye.  Three big scores in his last four.

Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) – He’ll be in my side after this weekend.  He’s back.

Jack Macrae (MID/FWD $574.8k) – The only relevant DPP addition to the game, but will he keep this role with Treloar back?  With that uncertainty, and the round 15 bye, I must pass for now.

Jordan De Goey (MID $543.5k) – Having a real break-out year and still well priced.

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Max Gawn (RUC $518.9k) – Missed FWD DPP by 0.1% which is heartbreaking.  Still an option as a Darcy replacement.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k) – Injured but will be cheap for his output when he returns.

Callum Mills (MID $471.4k) – Waiting for him to return and bottom out.  He’ll be so cheap!

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Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $471.2k) – Had a great ruck split and second half on the weekend.  Could be back.

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $452.8k) – Geelong and him are on the nose, but surely that will change soon.

Kieren Briggs (RUC $254.4k) – Might be my solution to my R2 and cash generation issues, on a temporary only basis.

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Break-even Analysis

MUST HAVE’S

Eddie Ford (FWD $123.9k) B/E -114:  Ticks every single box (scoring potential, job security, eye test, role) so he must be coming into your side this week.

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CONSIDER

• Kieren Briggs (RUC $254.4k) B/E -64:  Has two 100 scores against decent opposition.  Richmond, NM and Fremantle before the bye where you could ditch him for potentially a quick $150k cash grab.
• George Wardlaw (MID $193.8k) B/E -16:  Poor score on the weekend which makes him a slow burn at his price.  Not what I’m looking for despite the good job security.  I think I’m passing but understand the appeal.
• Jordan Ridley (DEF $428.7k) B/E -5:  I started the year with him, so I won’t go back.  Clear appeal but I think Red Dog is much better.
• Jack Macrae (MID/FWD $574.8k) B/E 41:  Very good forward option, but I just don’t trust Bevo enough to spend close to $600k on him.
• Mason Redman (DEF $570.2k) B/E 55:  This is Red Dog and he’s worth the extra money if you can afford him.  Kicks goals and has a much higher ceiling than Ridley.
• Jarrod Witts (RUC $605.1k) B/E 96:  An obvious Darcy replacement who just straight up scores bulk points every week.  As consistent as they come.
• Tom Stewart (DEF $587.1k) B/E 109:  Top 3 defender in the league who has the perfect bye.

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TRADE OUT OPTIONS

• Sean Darcy (RUC $567.4k) B/E 179:  A confirmed hamstring strain which means multiple weeks on the sidelines for the big fella.  Must trade.
• Will Powell (DEF $470k) B/E 148:  Failed premium for those who went there.  Depending on your side you may need to hold him.  If your bye numbers are good sell him now.
• Ben King (FWD $383.8k) B/E 116:  Well done if you started him but it’s time to cash out before he bleeds the cash he’s made.
• Will Day (DEF/MID $457.6k) B/E 116:  He is scoring well in DT.  Would be great if he cleaned up his use and stopped turning it over.  He’s still a hold for me.
• Will Ashcroft (MID $420.4k) B/E 109:  He’s legit only a Gabba option.  4 of their next 7 are at home so you could hold.
• Samson Ryan (RUC/FWD $344.5k) B/E 101:  Must trade, no good with Nank in the side.

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• Liam Stocker (DEF $391.3k) B/E 73:  Perfect time to trade and use his money to build a bank.
• Arthur Jones (FWD $254.9k) B/E 73:  Love his game, but not overlay a Supercoach friendly role.  Will start losing money as of now.
• Sam Simpson (MID/FWD $250.6k) B/E 59:  If he’s not named this week, he is a must sell.
• Alwyn Davey (MID/FWD $179.7k) B/E 56:  Watching the team sheet closely.  Hopefully he gets another chance.  Trade if not named.
• Mitchell Knevitt (MID $258.3k) B/E 50:  Same as Simpson, must be selected this week otherwise trade.
• Anthony Caminiti (FWD $242.1k) B/E 48:  Cash him in.
• Matt Roberts (MID/FWD $148.6k) B/E 38:  Dead rookie.  Trade if you can as there’s no guarantee he’ll play when he recovers.

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Tag Watch

Jordan De Goey – West Coast have a tagging fetish for some reason.  O’Neill (if named) probably runs with him due to his current form.

Nick Daicos – Reuben Ginbey might get the job.

Will Day – Could get attention from Drew as its proved to work against him.