Quantium data analysis: True player ownership stats, Round 13

After months of planning for the first big bye round, Round 14 looms to be an equally interesting challenge for many teams! 

With so many teams loading up on players from the Eels, Knights and Sea Eagles last week, the combination of those teams having a bye and impending origin carnage means that many teams will be unable to field a full 17 this week.

Let’s take a look at the ownership of each player eligible for Round 14 and then see how the top 100,000 teams are placed in terms of starting numbers pre trades this week – you might be surprised!

BREAK AWAY FROM THE PACK with Quantium, Australia’s premier data science and artificial intelligence company. Create your own career power play and join the team today. Visit our website for more information. CEO Adam Druissi is a contributor to SC Playbook.

FLB (non-DPP)

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback.

Jahream Bula is now the most owned fullback in NRL Supercoach.  44% of the top 1,000 teams now own Bula.

With Turbo, Latrell and Gutho all out this week, many teams are scrambling at fullback.  As an example, 13 of the top 100 and 12% of the top 1,000 currently have no fullback available prior to trades this week. If either Teddy or Walsh were to fail to back up that number would blow out considerably.

CTW

Several well owned CTWs are unavailable in Round 14.  Reuben Garrick (owned by 95% of the top 1,000), Greg Marzhew (71%), Jarrod Croker (46%), Haze Dunster (11%), Jack Bird (10%), Burbo (10%), Max Feagai (7%), Lachie Miller (6%), Jeral Skelton (5%), Maika Sivo (4%) and Hammer (4%) are all unavailable. 

A further 21% own Valynce Te Whare who only played 4 minutes off the bench last week.

5/8

Cameron Munster is now owned by just 5% of the top 1,000 (versus 19% a week ago). 

Teams running with two of Dylan Brown, Kalyn Ponga and Josh Schuster at five eighth will be forced to make a trade or team shuffle this week.

HFB

Approximately 25% of teams sold Nicho Hynes last week, with a further 6% selling Nathan Cleary.

Hynes is now owned by just 73% of the top 1,000 whilst Cleary is owned by 87%.  18% of the top 1,000 will have appreciated Mitch Moses’ efforts last week – but are without him in Round 14.

2RF

The two most owned 2RFs in Supercoach are Josh Schuster and J’Maine Hopgood – both unavailable in Round 14.

86% of the top 1,000 still own David Fifita and will be sweating on the big man backing up this weekend.

FRF

Joseph Tapine and Tohu Harris are now the most popular FRFs amongst leading teams – with approx. 80 of the top 100 and 76% of the top 1,000 owning each. 

Payne Haas is now owned by just 53% of the top 1,000.

HOK

Approximately 40% of the top 1,000 brought Damien Cook into their side last week.  Cook is now owned by 47 of the top 100 – versus 53 for Harry Grant.

23% of the top 1,000 own Jeremy Marshall-King and 17% own Reece Robson – making hooker much more interesting than earlier in the season.

Results

Players Available in Round 13

The table below sets out the distribution of numbers of players available for selection in Round 14 by rank – prior to any trades this week.  

Two teams in the top 100 (including the team coming second) have just 13 players – meaning that even with a boost they will be short this week.  And that’s before any further origin carnage.

In my case, I’m roughly 20,000^th and have 20 players pre trades.  So looking at the table below, only 1% of teams have more players available.  Unfortunately I own Valynce Te Whare which may make it challenging for me to loop – so I wish I owned 19!

The final row in the table shows the average number of players available for selection by ranking zone.  So, on average, the top 100 teams have 16.4 players available and the top 10,0000 teams have 16.6.  Bear in mind that not all of these players are equal of course! 

The chart below sets out the average number of players available for the top 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams again and so on.  As you can see, teams near the lead are actually in slightly worse shape than those below – largely a function of owning so many Eels, Knights and Sea Eagles players which helped them last week.

For those in the top 2,000, I’ve further broken down the average ownership in groups of 100 in the chart below.  Again, almost every group of 100 teams is slightly worse placed than the next 100 teams behind them.

Needless to say these numbers are only going to get worse after Origin on Wednesday night. 

Every year we see multiple players not back so if any highly owned players such as Nathan Cleary, David Fifita, Nicho Hynes, Payne Haas, Harry Grant, Turbo, Valentine Holmes, James Tedesco, Reece Walsh or Brian To’o were to fail to back up it would cause chaos amongst leading teams. 

Keep an eye out for updates on the WhatsApp chat group.

Good luck to everyone in Round 14 and go the Blues! 

It’s State of Origin time!! this week for our betr SC Playbook multi, we’ve got Turbo, Addo-Carr, and Munster to combine for 2+ tries in Origin 1! FOLLOW HERE