Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 13

1930 points for me this week which is a good start to the bye rounds and saw me climb into the top 2k for the first time this season. 

Huge call keeping JVR paid off handsomely, as did a last-minute decision to trade in Briggs instead of Wardlaw. 

Looked a masterstroke captaining Merrett at half time, but a Liam Shiel tag in the second half tempered celebrations slightly. 

Very happy overall especially as I’ve decided to anti-pod Tim English which is not exactly going great.

I wanted to use one trade this week to bring in Neale, but I’m $2k short of upgrading Weddle which is a pain.  It’s either hold and see if Weddle makes $2k more than Neale this week or trade some under-performing “premiums” like Ziebell and Day.

Sign up to SC Playbook in 2023! Gain access to stacks of additional premium articles every week during the season, our major subscriber prize, our Whatsapp community featuring Qnas with our team of contributors, and plenty of other bonus features. SUBSCRIBE HERE!

Embed from Getty Images

My Watchlist

Caleb Serong (MID $610.2k) – He’s flown under my radar all season.  +$111k on his starting price with a 114 average.  Off his bye he looks a great option.

Andrew Brayshaw (MID $581.1k) – Three big scores in his last four.  Is he a better pick than his teammate who is having a break-out?  Will that $30k be super handy elsewhere?  I’m just worried he gets most of the attention from the opposition.

Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) – Comfortably the number 1 trade in target this week.

Chad Warner (MID $552.2k) – 4 tonnes in the last 5 see’s him on the radar.  Another coming off the bye but will he keep this up with Mills back soon?

Fantasy betting? You read that right… this week for our betr SC Playbook multi, we’ve got Sydney to win and Steele to score 115+ AFL Fantasy points! FOLLOW HERE

Jack Steele (MID $520.9k) – Looked banged up and in need of the week off.  If he comes out and looks good Thursday night, I will consider him at the cheap price.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k) – Injured but may be too cheap to ignore when he returns.

Callum Mills (MID $471.4k) – Waiting for him to return and bottom out.  He’ll be so cheap!

Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $458.8k) – Has bottomed out but has the bye after King’s Birthday.  Trading Briggs to him looks a no brainer.

Embed from Getty Images

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $446.1k) – Important win for the Cats which could be their turning point.  A tonne for Jezza who looks a good option for round 14, 15 and beyond.

Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k) – 125 against the top team has him firmly in the discussion, but can you trust his body?

Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k) – Was on 50 at half time before lack of match fitness took hold against the Dees.  Everything is trending upwards.  Promised more midfield minutes and has valuable DPP.

Over the next 12 months an estimated 60% of all fixed rate mortgages are going to expire. Patty and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best rate possible. It’s a super easy process, so flick them a message. Save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Break-even Analysis

MUST HAVE’S

• N/A

Embed from Getty Images

CONSIDER

• Kieren Briggs (RUC $340.4k) B/E -32:  If you need an R2 bringing him in will give you cash to upgrade elsewhere, otherwise pass.
• Lewis Melican (DEF $172.3k) B/E -18:  Might be worth a shot if named for Thursday night. 
• Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k) B/E 6:  A great score on the weekend but I just cannot trust him.
• Ben Keays (MID/FWD $389k) B/E 7:  This one is interesting.  Has he been in the midfield rotation because he’s tagging?  Or is he part of the first-choice midfield team?  I expect the former and for him to be back in the forward line for longer stints again.  Passing.
• Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k) B/E 26:  Already had his bye, cheap, DPP and expected to play more midfield as of now.  Ticks a lot of boxes and you can keep him as a M9/F7 loop player.  Just need his body to hold up for a minimum 3 weeks.
• Nic Martin (MID/FWD $482.1k) B/E 32:  Having a hell of a season but passing as a SC option.
• Jordan Ridley (DEF $475.7k) B/E 45:  3 tonnes on the trot and we know Essendon have a great draw.  Appealing option at a budget price.

Embed from Getty Images

• James Sicily (DEF $608.9k) B/E 49:  Expensive but he showed his ceiling the last match he played.  Hopefully he’s had his rush of blood for the season.
• Caleb Daniel (DEF/FWD $582k) B/E 53:  Wow, where was this when I owned him as a POD in 2021.  Going huge every week.  Seems to have benefited from some defensive injuries at the kennel.
• Jack Sinclair (DEF $531.2k) B/E 78:  We need him to play half back, not midfield.  Has shown his ceiling and appealing coming off the bye.
• Bailey Dale (DEF $520.4k) B/E 79:  Another who has benefited from injuries.  A great option for those who R15 bye looks alright.
• Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) B/E 86:  Almost a must have against the Hawks this week.  Perfect upgrade target.

Embed from Getty Images

TRADE OUT OPTIONS

• Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $517.6k) B/E 172:  Aaron Hall has killed him.  I think he’s a trade unless Hall is dropped.
• Harry Sheezel (DEF/FWD $464.2k) B/E 119:  Similar story to JZ.  Hall in has had a negative effect, plus he’s playing all over the ground.  I think I’m holding.
• Will Day (DEF/MID $440.7k) B/E 102:  Such a frustrating player to own.  His DT to SC ratio is terrible.  No tonne since round 4 is telling but at least his price is not massively fluctuating.

Embed from Getty Images

• Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $313.6k) B/E 83:  Did owners get lucky with his second half scoring against the Crows?  Or did something click?  Was on track for another terrible score at half time.  Has made $100k but if I owned, I’d probably hold and hope for the best.
• Alex Cincotta (DEF/MID $235.3k) B/E 43:  I like the way he plays but he’s close to topping out.  Can trade now if you need to, or do we hold him as D7 cover?
• Josh Weddle (DEF $325.8k) B/E 38:  Should still make money but Sicily and Mitchell back might see him back to 60 scoring.  Understand people trading but I’ll hold for one more.

Embed from Getty Images

Tag Watch

Tom Green / Stephen Coniglio:  Do the Kangas continue with Shiels after the job he did on Merrett in the second half?  Hope not as I own both.  Perhaps if one is utterly dominating.

Patrick Cripps:  Jye Caldwell might have the run with role.

Bailey Dale / Caleb Daniel:  One might get some attention from Darcy Byrne-Jones I think.

Rory Laird / Jordan Dawson:  I expect one will get attention from Xavier O’Neill.