Spy Talk: Nicho v SJ

There is a lot of chat around selling Nicho Hynes this week. If you have depth and trades (say six or more) I’m maybe ok with it but I’ll tell you what, for the rest of us mere mortals who don’t have a plethora of trades in hand, I don’t really think it’s the best idea to be honest.

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Let’s assess

1. Hynes scores 26 against Penrith. Ok, but who doesn’t! It’s Penrith!
2. He is losing a heap of cash. Yep, but it’s not the time of year for making money especially when you check Nicho’s run home. Bunnies this week could be tricky, but he will likely still go ok. Then it’s Titans, Cowboys, Newcastle & Canberra! It’s a decent enough run home and he does average 94 for the year.

I just worry any trade will be a little sideways at a time where any trades held for the final weeks could prove critically!

The case to sell him revolves mostly around my main man SJ and the form of the NZ Warriors v what you think the Sharks will throw up for the run home!

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NZ are flying and it’s centered around the great man himself who has managed to find career best form at a time when his speed and agility is a thing of the past. His ability to get deep into the line off great service from his middle men and hooker Wayde Egan, and then the amount of quality running options outside him has created the perfect scenario. Add in a top shelf kicking game, goal kicking, and ever improving support play and it has led to four tons in his last seven games and two scores above 75. A score of 22 in the wet where it was monsoonal wasn’t ideal and if you own, the NZ weather is a thing of nerves.

I can see the temptation to make the trade but be wary of injury and the possibility that one trade could lead to two if SJ goes down. For the love of all things sport and life, please don’t do it to us! Injuries withstanding, it’s game on and as always, I think it’s best to break it down to try and determine how many points we are looking at for both men and then determine if a trade is worth it.

It’s of course impossible to say, and the below is fraught with danger but let’s have a crack.

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Hynes

V Souths – A potentially tough proposition but Souths aren’t yet what they were earlier in the year. No doubt this can change but it’s tricky to tell where both Cronulla & Souths are at. I can see Nicho scoring anywhere between 40 & 90 in this one. Let’s split the difference and call it 65.

V Gold Coast – Can’t knock this one although he is lined up against the Titans stronger edge of Foran/Fifita. Nicho does like to roam however. Score prediction 70-130. Every chance at a 100.

V Nth Qld – Good attacking track at Townsville. Playing an opposition with a lot to play for. 60-90 my prediction so let’s go with 75.

V Newcastle – The Knights have lifted but an arvo game gives Nicho a shot at points once more. On current form I think it’s similar to the above and he goes somewhere 60-90. Call it 75 again.

V Canberra – Depends how desperate Canberra are. So hard to say and it may well depend on ladder position for both teams. Let’s say they both need a win, it’s another reasonable matchup but not outstanding given he opposes Jack Wighton’s edge. 65 points.

Total points = 295-465 estimated at 380 at 76PPG

Note – Nicho has a high variance and could go anywhere between 40 and 180 on any given day which makes it super hard to predict.

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SJ

V Titans – He (like Nicho) gets the tougher Titans edge which is annoying for owners. 6pm game in Qld helps. Hopefully he roves a little to link with Jackson Ford and co on the left. I think he scores somewhere in the realm of 50-120. Call it 85.

V Wests Tigers – Who honestly knows with the Tigers and weather could be a factor (Night game New Zealand). This has the biggest variance, and I am predicting a score of 50-130 with weather and with the Tigers showing up being the unknown. 90 points splitting the difference.

V Manly – I decent enough matchup with a night NZ game again a slight concern. Score prediction 60-90 (75 the middle)

V St George – Another NZ night game but what a matchup against St George’s right edge. Surely 70 minimum and up to 150. 110 estimate.

V Dolphins – Saturday arvo Dolphins who likely will be ready for mad Monday. Suncorp surface. 120!

Total points = 330-630 estimated at 480 at 96PPG

Note – NZ night games are the concern here and must be factored in but he is still more than capable if it’s not raining and windy and even if it is, there are still scores in him but just maybe capped a little if it’s poor conditions (80 odd)

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For what it’s worth

Nathan Cleary

Total points = 360-680 estimated at 520 at 104PPG

Note – Highest floor for mine on the run home and highest ceiling.

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The Sum Up

So, prediction wise it lands as a fair win for SJ but you can see the concern in the SJ match breakdowns (NZ weather & night time), whereas you can also see Nicho has a potentially good run after this week but he could also run into desperate sides. As a result, both are really hard to say. Nicho has the pedigree whereas SJ has the form and matchups minus the conditions. I will say though that SJ’s floor compared to Hynes’ is a slight concern but may well be offset by the draw for the run home.

Say my predictions are bang on and SJ does average 20 more, then that’s 100 points extra in total. Is that worth the trade for your side? If short on trades, then maybe not because you could make up that easily by covering late injuries. If you have trades left maybe the trade is the play!!

The other major factor is that it’s so hard to predict that using a vital trade may but a huge risk. My predictions could just be plain wrong and Nicho rolls on with an 80-90 average and SJ lobs along at 70-75. That’s Supercoach for you and it’s my job to have a crack at what I think they score in each match to help you decide! From there you then need to make up your own mind legends 😉

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What would I do?

Four trades or less I would hold Nicho.

Five plus trades I can see the value and I wouldn’t knock anyone doing it but I’m also not entirely convinced given prices are now similar and I think it’s a 50-50 call

Hynes to Cleary I would do for anyone with five plus trades and probably even four trades remaining, but likely not if lower as Nicho could still match Cleary. I just think Nath is the man for the run to finals!