Final word: Skippers, weather watch, super PODs Rd 1

We’re just hours away from the first ball of Big Bash 13.

All the pre-season study culminates in 16 players that can make or break your Supercoach season from the outset.

We begin the year with one team on a triple game round, and four others on the double.

There’s numerous internationals to come back into their respective squads mid-way through the round, as well as a host of men from the PM’s XI fixture.

Who they’ll replace and what roles they’ll play we can only guess.

Yep, it’s a tricky start to Supercoach BBL13.

But it’s fun, a tricky opening should see some diversity in squads which is exactly what we want.

Let’s take a look at the final word leading into round 1.

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Weather Watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Thursday, 3PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.

Thursday

7:15PM: Heat v Stars, The Gabba, Brisbane

Forecast: Sunny, 32 degrees, 0% chance of rain

Verdict: All clear

Friday

7:15PM: Sixers v Renegades, SCG, Sydney

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 31 degrees, chance of a thunderstorm in outer west in afternoon and evening, 10% chain of rain

Verdict: Likely all clear barring any storm build up

Saturday

7:15PM: Strikers v Heat, Adelaide Oval

Forecast: Rain. Possible heavy falls. 90% chance of 5 to 20mm

Verdict: Bad, very bad. With the Heat on the triple this is a huge concern for their contingent. This forecast has me very hesitant to overinvest in Heat players. Sunday looks even wetter so once it sets in it may not be leaving Adelaide too quickly.

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Sunday

7:15PM: Renegades v Scorchers, GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Forecast: Shower or two, 21 degrees, 70% chance of 0-6mm of rain.

Verdict: Nothing too substantial to note, but certainly worth monitoring the updated forecasts leading into the game in case it gets any worse.

Monday

7:15PM: Hurricanes v Sixers, UOT Stadium, Launceston

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 28 degrees, 20% chances of any rain.

Verdict: Looking fine.

Tuesday

7:15PM: Thunder v Heat, Manuka Oval, Canberra

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 35 degrees, 30% chance of 0 to 1mm of rain.

Verdict: Looking all clear

Wednesday

7:15PM: Stars v Scorchers, MCG, Melbourne

Forecast: Shower or two, 28 degrees, 60% chance of 0-10mm of rain.

Verdict: Certainly worth noting there is some forecasted potential rain around at this stage, but it’s almost a week away so I wouldn’t read into it much at all.

Looking ahead

The Heat have the triple game week, and the round 3 bye.

They’ll be heavy in ownership but will need to be moved on by round 2 or 3.

The Renegades have the best early tournament Supercoach draw with the round 1 and 3 double, they should feature heavily.

The Stars have the double in round 1 and 3 also, but a bye wedged in between in round 2.

This is fine as it will allow loophole opportunities when they have the bye next round, just be wary of starting too many players as you could be left short in round 2 if other players aren’t named.

I think three max is okay, two seems the safe number.

The Sixers and Scorchers have the double to start, but don’t have another for some time and can be moved on after this round.

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Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

Nathan Coulter-Nile – 2.7% ownership

Anyone who listens to the SC Playbook podcast saw this coming a mile away.

NCN is a favourite of mine.

He’s a gun cricketer, and a gun Supercoach player.

He bowls key overs, is very capable of big late order hitting and gets fielding positions on the boundary very conducive to catching opportunities.

He started last season on the double game week, belting out 187 points!!!

Resting risk is always the concern with him due to his fragile body, but the Stars games are six days apart which is very encouraging.

The bigger concern is that Haris Rauf expected to play the second game, so there’s some worry he may be a direct replacement, but I’d still bac NCN to hold his spot.

Super tempting…

Tom Rogers 4.2% ownership

With five games in the first three rounds, I’m very surprised a star of last season in Tom Rogers (the Renegades version) is such low-ownership.

He’s another who bowls key overs for his side, and is also capable of some late order hitting.

He took 23 wickets, for a Supercoach average of 59.6.

Again, there’s a touch of rotation risk with Peter Siddle in the squad this season, hence why he’s very low, but it may just be a risk worth taking.

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Skippers

Wow there’s a lot of options here.

If we knew he was playing all three games, Michael Neser with a great allrounder role for the Heat would be top pick fairly comfortably.

However, he is not only not guaranteed to play all three, but there’s also the wet weather forecast for the Heat’s second game in Adelaide.

Spencer Johnson looks a solid play from the Heat but has also had injury concerns leading into the tournament.

Sam Billings or Colin Munro should play all three but are unreliable as bat only options.

I don’t love any other Heat players.

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For all the reasons listed above, I’m looking towards the proven guns such as Glenn Maxwell or Tom Curran with great allrounder roles.

Put it this way, even if the Heat get all three games in, and let’s say Johnson, Billings or Munro all play each game, as either bowling or batting only options they really only have three major scoring opportunities across the three games (plus wicketkeeping as a far more minor scoring option for Billings).

If you select say Curran or Maxwell or any proven allrounder on the double, they’re essentially getting four genuine scoring options across just two games.

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Sure Maxwell may not bowl, or Curran might not bat, but this is unlikely, and there’s always some degree of uncertainty.

For me, I like Maxwell as vice-captain and Curran as captain.

You could apply the above logic to any number of Supercoach guns with allrounder capabilities.