Final word: Skippers, weather watch, super PODs Rd 4

Round 3 was a strong reminder of a few different elements of Supercoach Big Bash.

The first one is how quickly it can change.

With popular vice-captain Glenn Maxwell struggling in his first game, tonnes of Supercoaches opted for captain Will Sutherland.

Sutherland battled in game one, and was struggling early on in game two for the Renegades with no wickets in his first three overs.

He went on to bowl the second last over of the innings, taking three wickets to record around 150 points for those who captained in the space of about five minutes.

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It was one of just countless examples of the speed your round can change, emphasised even further by Kane Richardson’s following over which also produced huge points after a poor start.

The second lesson was just the importance of role in the game, in this instance death bowlers.

Sutherland got his three wickets in an over, Richardson then jagged one and a runout.

Haris Rauf bagged three bowling at the death also to rescue his score, while Dan Sams got three in the final over of the game for the Thunder.

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It’s invaluable landing that player, but it’s not always straight forward working out who will bowl the death at each club, and even then match circumstances won’t always present that opportunity.

The Stallions had another underwhelming round, but we are still crawling up the rankings so that’s something.

The boys managed 811 points to move up into 9,073^rd overall. More respectable, but still a long way off where we want to be.

I’ve got two Thunder players stored on the bench leading into Round 4, so hopefully there’s more green on the horizon.

Let’s take a look at the Final Word for Round 4.

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Weather Watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Wednesday, 1PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.

Wednesday

7:15PM: Heat v Thunder, The Gabba, Brisbane

Forecast: Possible shower, 33 degrees, 40% chance of rain. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe.

Verdict: It’s a daunting forecast for the game with potentially severe storms. It might be nothing, it might belt The Gabba come game time and call the match off. It’ll be one of those nights where we need to monitor the radar leading in, because if it’s looking bad it may impact trade plans significantly as it may present the opportunity to fade Thunder players on the double and look elsewhere.

Thursday

7:15PM: Hurricanes v Stars, Blundstone Arena, Hobart

Forecast: Shower or two, 21 degrees, 50% chance of 0 to 1mm of rain.

Verdict: Looking pretty clear at this stage.

Friday

7:15PM: Renegades v Strikers, Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 22 degrees, 5% chance of rain.

Verdict: All clear

Saturday

7:15PM: Thunder v Sixers, Sydney Showground

Forecast: Shower or two, 27 degrees, 60% chance of 0 – 1mm of rain.

Verdict: Looking fairly clear at this stage, monitor any updates throughout the week.

Looking ahead

We enter a few easier rounds for Supercoach which is delightful, especially over a busy period leading into New Year.

The Thunder are the only team on the double and hence should be priority trade targets.

The Perth Scorchers have the bye in round 4 and 5, so any expensive players should probably be sold, however they’re the only team on the bye those weeks so it could be worth holding one or two for loophole opportunities.

Even trading in a player like Sam Whiteman or Cooper Connolly (duals, cheap) is a major option for anyone without any non-active players.

The Stars are on the double in round 5 who most Supercoaches are already heavily invested in, so there’s probably not too much value in going towards their players, aside from possibly Beau Webster of course.

For those considering Jamie Overton and Paul Walter, the Strikers have the double in Round 6 and the Heat in Round 7, adding value to their credentials this week.

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Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

Generally speaking I’ll look to single game week players, with doubles upcoming, as the low-ownership double game round players on that given week tend to sky-rocket out of super POD territory once the round begins and trades are locked in.

Dan Sams and Usama Mir were last week’s picks at tiny ownership and went huge, knocking out 155 and 113 points respectively.

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Tim David – 0.2%

The Australian rep opened the bowling for the Hurricanes in the last game and was fairly economical without taking a wicket.

I don’t love picking batsmen at five or below, but I also think David will get decent enough opportunity in a generally fragile Canes’ batting order.

The Canes’ play early in the next two rounds making him a decent auto-emergency loop play too.

We know he’s class, he’s cheap, and is at remarkably low-ownership, so he might be worth a sneaky Super POD play.

Chris Jordan – 4.2%

Another Hurricane in Englishman Chris Jordan is another who looms as a buy with that same favourable auto-emergency loop draw in coming rounds.

He produced a remarkable knock of 59 off 20 balls just two games back and is bowling key late overs for the Hurricanes.

Despite coming off a poor score of 2 having gone wicketless and not batting, he still has a breakeven of -2 so there’s some money incoming.

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Breakevens

Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.

The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.

Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)

Paul Walter -65

Jamie Overton -52

Beau Webster -51

Mitchell Swepson -40

Mac Wright -40

James Vince -38

Aaron Hardie -29

Hamish McKenzie -26

D’Arcy Short -19

Matt Short -17

Shaun Marsh -17

Tom Rogers -14

Jack Edwards -13

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Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)

Ben Dwarshuis 145

Nathan McAndrew 123

Chris Green 107

Caleb Jewell 107

Corey Anderson 104

Tanveer Sangha 101

Ollie Davies 99

Jhye Richardson 98

Michael Neser 93

Wes Agar 93

Jake Fraser-McGurk 88

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Skippers

The Thunder are on the double and play in game one, making them the logical round 1 choice for vice-captains.

Dan Sams will likely be the top pick following his big round 3 performance and elite role batting at six and bowling death.

I find it hard to go past Sams, but there’s also plenty of opportunity to go elsewhere as he has a bit of a rough injury history and has only bowled his max overs in one of three games so far this season.

If looking elsewhere, you’re probably going towards Cameron Bancroft if you’re opting to invest.

I think the fact he’s now wicket-keeping (provided no Gilkes) just gives him a bit of a safety blanket over the likes of Ollie Davies.

If not owning Bancroft and you’re wanting to go high upside, throw it on Ollie Davies and cross your fingers.

If your VC fails, there’s plenty of decent captaincy options, with Matt Short being the top pick.

Glenn Maxwell has lost some appeal as he’s currently not bowling due to his arm injury, making teammate Beau Webster a strong pick based on form and role.