Squad breakdown: Brisbane Broncos 2024 Supercoach analysis

The Brisbane Broncos enter the 2024 season as premiership heavyweights following a heartbreaking grand final loss to Penrith.

They’ll be out to go one better this season, and despite the loss of key players in Tom Flegler and Herbie Farnworth, they look every chance to do so.

Supercoach-wise, their early season draw is a concern.

The trip to Vegas for round 0 is less than ideal to begin the year when looking through a Supercoach lens.

Perhaps it won’t impact the travelling sides too significantly, and they do have the bye in round 1, but it’s a bit of an unknown at this stage.

Furthermore, it means we have to lock in any Broncos players a week earlier than the remaining 13 clubs which is far from ideal.

Their first five rounds are against strong sides which is a major concern.

With all that being said, they’re a gun side and perhaps those unknowns will steer people away from their Supercoach contingent which creates opportunity for the bold.

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Brisbane Broncos predicted team

1. Reece Walsh
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Selwyn Cobbo
4. Kotoni Staggs
5. Corey Oates
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Corey Jensen
9. Billy Walters
10. Payne Haas
11. Jordan Riki
12. Brendan Piakura
13. Patrick Carrigan

14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Fletcher Baker
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Xavier Willison

Unavailable:

Analysis: Selwyn Cobbo is confirmed to start at centre in place of the departed Herbie Farnworth.

This leaves a wing spot vacant, and the Broncos have a plethora of options to choose from.

Corey Oates is reportedly flying and is edging Deine Mariner for a starting spot.

The 14 jersey is also up for grabs, with Tyson Smoothy the front-runner, however a big pre-season could easily see rookie hooker Blake Mozer earn the spot.

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Draw

Roosters (Vegas), Rabbitohs (H), Panthers (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Raiders (H)

First five rounds rating: 2/10

Guns

Reece Walsh ($813,000, FLB)

Basically since the 2023 season ended I was keen on starting with Reece Walsh this year.

That was until the Vegas trip and the early draw for the Broncos came out with a tough run of fixtures.

Walsh averaged 80 points last season in his first full NRL season with the Broncos.

He’s just 21-years-old and is clearly improving with every game he plays.

I genuinely believe he can average 95+ this season, but the early draw concerns me, especially the US trip.

From about round 5 I’m keen to have plans in place to lock him in, but I haven’t ruled out making a play from the start of the season.

If anything were to happen to Adam Reynolds that’d see Walsh kick goals, he’d be straight in for me. Although Kotoni Staggs could be preferred as second choice kicker.

People will allude to his volatility in scoring last season with lows of 38, 23, 42 and 22 and use it as a red flag.

Perhaps fair, but watching those games closely he was also a whisker off going 80-100+ on a number of occasions.

Kalyn Ponga this year was far and above the best player in Supercoach once back at fullback and fully fit following head knocks, he also had volatility in his scoring every year to date.

Likely a wait for me on Walsh, but very tempting.

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Payne Haas ($750,400, FRF)

My opinion from most years hasn’t changed on Payne Haas in round 1.

Will he be the top scoring FRF at the end of year? Probably. Will he score over 60 every game? Probably. Will I start with him? No.

Haas averaged 74 points per game last season, an upgrade on averages of 63 and 68 in the year’s prior.

This means he’s priced close enough to his peak, so I don’t see how you get any real value in him early.

He didn’t score a century last season, and has just two tonnes to his name in the past four seasons. Those scores were 105 and 106.

If you don’t start him, he won’t hurt you.

If he starts with an 80 point average (would be a new career high) he’ll make a handful of cash, but you can easily cop that as you generate cash elsewhere.

People will claim he’s a set-and-forget so it’s saving a trade to start with him, but the reality is that he may get fewer minutes and rests over Origin, he might get injured, or suspended, so there’s fairly small chance you’ll actually hold him all season.

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Mid-rangers

Selwyn Cobbo ($602,900)

No interest in Cobbo for me with his move to centre.

He’ll score less tries, get less linebreaks and likely have a reduced workrate.

Further to that, Reece Walsh loves to cut out his centre when sweeping wide.

Add in the tough draw and he doesn’t appeal to me at the price.

Ezra Mam ($532,800, 5/8)

Five-eighth is a tough position to start the year, making Ezra Mam somewhat appealing to begin the season.

Again, the draw is enough for me to steer clear, but if I’ve wrapped Walsh as a buy as he continues to evolve his game, it’d be rude not to mention Mam who is only getting better.

It’s probably a case of chasing last week’s points, those points being a grand final hat-trick four months back.

I’m not overly keen, but he’s very much a cut-priced alternative to the guns such as Cody Walker, Dylan Brown and Cam Munster.

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Brendan Piakura ($426,800)

With Kurt Capewell departing it opens up an 80 minute role for Piakura who I rate highly.

He’s priced on a 42 point average from 57 minutes per game in 2023.

He averaged 59.6 points in five 65+ minute games last season.

He averaged 39.4 in base stats (tackles and runs) in those games.

I see him as a Briton Nikora type player who will rely more on attacking stats to score well, but he has the talent in a gun team to produce those attacking stats.

I feel there will be 40 point scores mixed with tonnes.

Definitely on my round 1 radar, although 2RF does look like a position with plenty of quality options to choose from.

Corey Oates ($451,500, CTW)  / Deine Mariner ($569,700, CTW) / Jesse Arthars ($376,000)

Firstly, I won’t be starting Corey Oates so don’t freak out.

However, whether it’s Oates, Mariner or Arthars lining up on the right wing it’s a Supercoach gold mine outside Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh.

I’m more flagging this as a position to watch through trials and early season as there may be some interest sparked in time.

Arthars at the significantly cheaper price entices me if he switches edges this season.

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Cheapies

Blake Mozar ($238,900)

Billy Walters will start at hooker in round 1, so Mozar isn’t a realistic option.

However he’s a very highly touted young hooker that is every chance to feature in the NRL more this season.

If anything happens to Walters, Mozar could be fast-tracked into the starting role.

He may play off the bench from round 1, but faces competition from Tyson Smoothy.

Not for now, but keep an eye on the young rake.

Xavier Willison ($265,200)

Cheap, strong, great buy to start the year.