H2H NRL Supercoach Tips: Navigating the run to finals

As we said at the start of the Major bye period, your approach during this crucial time is entirely dependent on your performances so far in your league.

Flying high? Well it’s a great time to consolidate by saving trades and grabbing pieces for Finals.

Needing to hustle to continue to stack wins? Well you’re in the right place.

This time of year, effectively the 4th quarter of the regular SuperCoach season, is always plenty of fun.

With 15 rounds in the books, not only should you know exactly what’s required to make your finals, but we also now have a very solid grasp on the match-ups thanks to the data available.

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It goes without saying that in Head-to-head, match-ups mean everything.

But this article won’t just help you if you’re that way inclined.

Knowing which sides have favourable draws can also help shape your moves for Classics, especially with every trade decision becoming more vital by the week.

As it stands there are six teams we consider that are ‘hard’ matchups based on their defense; Bulldogs, Roosters, Panthers, Storm, Sharks and Broncos. 

There are seven sides we consider ‘easy’ matchups based on conceding a lot of points; Dragons, Tigers, Raiders, Knights, Eels, Titans and Bunnies.

Everyone else is somewhere in between.

And while we know things can change, and game plans and styles can also dictate how certain sides match-up, the general data tells a compelling story in most instances.

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Round 16-22 breakdown by team

The below image shows the draw for all teams from rounds 16-22, including the Major byes.

It’s been colour-coded to clearly showcase the ‘easy’, ‘medium’ and ‘hard’ matchups based on the total average amount of SuperCoach points that sides are conceding. 

What patterns do you see?

As mentioned on this week’s podcast it’s no surprise during the middle of the season that the highest profile teams – such as the Panthers, Storm, Broncos and Roosters – typically avoid playing each other and can therefore have softer periods.

To help quantify this strength of schedule we have created a simple formula to grade the difficulty of matchups across this period to see which club has the softest upcoming draw.

Additionally, knowing that the Major Byes aren’t counted in a lot of H2H Leagues, we’ve produced a second set of results with the results from rounds 16 and 19 removed. The results are below.

8 Takeaways for Round 16-22

Based on these results, there’s a few observations we can conclude:

1. Storm, Warriors and Rabbitohs can lift in attack

The Melbourne Storm, New Zealand Warriors and Rabbitohs have a great upcoming strength of schedules for both H2H and Classics.

We could see an uplift in the attacking performance from all three of these sides.

2. Storm and Warriors have it easy

The Storm and Warriors lead the way with four ‘easy’ games during that span.

3. The Dragons come up against some of the best in defence

The Dragons have a difficult draw in both Classics and H2H, whilst also have two byes.

They play four of the six best defensive sides during this period.

There’s not a huge amount of SC relevance outside of Lomax, but given he misses his side’s ‘bye’ appearance through Origin it could be time to sell.

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4. Panthers draw opens up after Round 20

When removing the Major byes, the upcoming Penrith draw improves significantly.

Their run post Origin 3 looks to be high-scoring.

For H2H players they could prove relevant post round 20.

5. The Cowboys will be doing it tough

For Classics, the Cowboys draw is difficult with two byes and three of their five matches against the best defensive sides.

It could be time to consider moving on from Scott Drinkwater with the abundance of fullback options available.

6. Cash-gen opportunity for Knights players

The Knights have three good match-ups between rounds 17-19 before two hard match-ups and a bye after Origin 3.

Could we see a strong cash growth of cheapie prospect Fletcher Sharpe?

7. Eels have a nightmare schedule after Round 20

The Eels draw is similar to the Knights with three ‘easy’ games in rounds 17-19 before a bye and no more easy games.

Round 20 could be the ideal time to hop off Blaize Talagi.

There could also be an opportunity to hop off of Dylan Brown if a decent option emerged at the position.

8. Bye and non-bye discrepancy big for Manly

The Sea Eagles have the biggest discrepancy between their ‘byes’ versus ‘non-byes’ ranking. For H2H players, there’s a decent opportunity to go against them during this time.

While the rankings are done off of data, the observations are just suggestions and it’s important to back your gut if you think what’s coming through on paper doesn’t fit in with your views.

Next week, we’ll help you even more with your future planning through an analysis of the different Finals series for each of the different league settings.