The Final Word: Round 16 NRL Supercoach Strategy

The second major bye round is on our doorstep, at the time of writing literally just a few hours until kick-off!

A timely reminder that in the three major bye rounds only your top 13 players from your 25 man squad count towards your total round score.

Plenty will be comfortable with 13+ numbers, while many others will be battling to field a full squad.

Don’t panic if you’re struggling for a full team, it’s a tough week and many will be in the same boat.

Round 16 and 19 there’s seven teams on the bye, while Round 17 and 20 there are three teams on the bye.

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Approach the four major bye rounds collectively.

There’s no point making trades this week if you’re comfortable for numbers and end up with 17 players, only to get to round 19 and realise you only have eight players available.

Take a quick look at how many players you currently have for each of those four mentioned rounds and it’ll help shape your trades this week.

For the record, 12 or 13 players this week is more than fine, particularly if they’re relatively strong players, not named Poasa Faamausili or Joe Chan who I don’t really count as a number this week.

If you’re a bit shorter this week, there’s every chance you’re better placed for following major bye rounds than rivals who are stacked this week.

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Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 5% owned) that should be on your radar.

Note that all below are based on ownership % among top 10% ranked teams overall.

Herbie Farnworth (4.5% own) – $704,100

If Herbie hadn’t burst out to such a high price I’d be so keen, I just can’t justify getting him.

Anyone with cash in bank to do so though should strongly consider him with a 67 point average this season, with an outstanding 36 base per game.

He has a three round average of 94 points per game, and has scored just three tries this season.

After Melbourne this week (missing a host of stars), the Dolphins face the Dragons, bye then Rabbitohs without their Origin stars.

He’s running at Melbourne’s significantly weaker edge tonight.

Daniel Tupou (0.5% own) – $549,000

One of the most proven and reliable players in Supercoach, in a red-hot team, with a soft draw for the rest of the season, just 0.5% owned.

Daniel Tupou, come on down…

He’s averaging a rock solid 62 points this season with a strong 31 in base.

With upcoming games against the Bulldogs (defensive juggernaut Stephen Crichton on his edge is out), Tigers and Dragons to come he could have big scores in him.

What’s putting most Supercoaches off, myself included, is the high ownership of Roosters backline players already owned such as James Tedesco, Dom Young and Joey Manu, along with Sam Walker for many others.

Did I mention he’s just $549k?

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Supercoach Captain

Regular columnist Clementine Cassidy was flat stick with work this week, so I’m stepping in for a far briefer summary of the week’s best captaincy plays.

Remember that with most struggling to field a full 13 this week we essentially get a free crack at the vice-captaincy loophole, meaning we get two shots at getting it right.

It’s a funny week, James Tedesco should rightly be the most popular captaincy option averaging over 90 this season, disregarding his 4 point concussion game against the Bulldogs last time out.

He’s in vintage Supercoach touch, busting tackles, scoring and setting up tries and just looking all round lethal.

It helps that the stars around him are firing for the first time in a few years.

Despite this, the match-up isn’t actually that good, at all…

The Bulldogs have the second best defensive record in the NRL, and concede the least points to fullbacks in the game!

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The Roosters are hot favourites to win, but are we forgetting the Dogs beat them last time out?

It’s weird, my gut tells me Teddy is the safest and probably best option, but the stats say otherwise, so decide for yourself.

Despite returning from injury, David Fifita is another clear standout.

Fifita is averaging a ridiculous 86 points for a back-rower and will again be the go-to running at Shaun Johnson who has just returned from a pec injury.

Fifita missed the first three rounds due to injury, then returned with a score of 57.

Since then he hasn’t scored below 71, after that his lowest is 81, gun.

Unlike most forwards he also has that enormous ceiling we all chase in skippers, with a top score of 126 this season and a 150+ in the past.

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I also love Jahrome Hughes and Eliesa Katoa as vice-captaincy plays.

Katoa gets the dream match-up running at Isaiya Katoa which is where the Storm will look to target all night.

He’s the safer option of the Storm pair and also has upside.

Hughes has more upside, but is also a bit riskier in a weakened Storm outfit.

I do think this pair can have a night out running at young Isaiya and will likely prove POD VC plays.

For me it’s VC Fifita and C Teddy, but I do feel it’s a great weekend to go against the grain.

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BETTING PLAYS

Let’s hope this doesn’t age like milk in a sauna, but my lock of the week is Jack Bostock to score a try tonight at $2.10.

He’s going at the Storm’s weak defensive edge on the right where I feel the Dolphins will target all night.

Bostock into Eliesa Katoa should net you $5-6 which looks a nice value play.

Tune into this week’s episode of the Half-Backed podcast with myself, former Raider (and brother) Sam Williams and ex-TAB data analyst Jimmy Hughes for all our punting plays for Round 16.

Aside from trying to find winners, we also get inside the genius footy mind of Sam which is littered in rugby league IQ so check it out if interested.

The episode has dropped in the SC Playbook Spotify/Apple feed.

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