Round 17 NRL Team Lists: Supercoach Analysis

Two major bye rounds down, one to go.

This week, it’s another mini bye round with three teams sitting out including the Titans, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs.

Our approach to trading begins to change now in that the vast majority of Supercoaches are starting to become a little wary of running low on trades.

That’s normal, and not a bad thing, but it does mean that we can’t really afford to waste trades and expect to easily fix them up later on in the year.

My advice from here is that when trading a player in, do your absolute best to make sure that player is a keeper for the end of season.

With plenty of Supercoaches running sub 15 trades it’ll prove costly to have to get a player in and then out again later.

By this though I’m referring to the stronger players you trade in, you’ll still have to make cash with trades such as a Fletcher Sharpe type to fund the guns, but if you’re paying over $500k for a player you probably want to be comfortable holding them until the end of the season.

While this mini bye round is easier than the previous in round 14, we are nearing what I believe is comfortably the hardest bye round in round 19.

It’s a tricky week that is likely to see many Supercoaches playing short, assuming that between now and then there’s injuries, Origin call-ups and anything else that can happen to remove players from our squads.

Focus on this round, because it’ll be tough going.

Embed from Getty Images

The Cooma Stallions had a respectable week in round 16 with 1,009 points to rise to 11k overall.

Across the board my players went quite well, and bigger rises seemed inevitable, but as was the story of the season I continue to miss the star players of the weekend.

Not so much Keano Kini and Jayden Campbell who were fairly low-ownership, but instead Api Koroisau who belted out 133 against my beloved Raiders to rub salt into the wound.

I was very surprised to see Api owned by over 40% of the top 10% ranked overall! Killer…

Anyway, green arrows are green arrows so at least there was movement in the right direction.

Let’s take a look at NRL Supercoach Round 17, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.

PRICE DROP! We’ve dropped out prices for the remainder of the season. Access extra premium articles every round of the season, access our subscriber-only Whatsapp group with contributor feedback, late mail and other threads, our major unlimited group prize and plenty more. SIGN UP HERE!

Embed from Getty Images

BULLDOGS v SHARKS 

Friday, 8pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Jacob Kiraz 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jaeman Salmon 13. Bailey Hayward

Bench: 14. Jake Turpin 15. Josh Curran 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Lipoi Hopoi

Reserves: 19. Jacob Preston 20. Drew Hutchison 21. Eli Clark 22. Harry Hayes 23. Stephen Crichton

Analysis: The Bulldogs miss the final major bye round.

Matt Burton is the sixth most sold player at the moment following his 16 points against the Roosters.

Don’t panic, with Stephen Crichton and Bronson Xerri out, he shifted to centre for this game against a gun defensive outfit in the torrential rain.

He’s scored well all season and is an invaluable 5/8-HFB dual position player.

There aren’t many standouts at 5/8 at the moment so I believe he’s an indefinite hold.

Sam Hughes’ time is up.

If he’s your fourth FRF and you don’t have to worry about playing him you can probably hang tight unless a decent replacement turns up, if he’s your third option and you may have to rely on playing him at times I’d look to sell.

Jacob Kiraz scored 100 in the wet without a try or try-assist, simply elite.

He’s a season-long keeper.

Embed from Getty Images

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Siosifa Talakai 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Tuku Hau Tapuha

Reserves: 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Jesse Colquhoun 20. Mawene Hiroti 21. Teig Wilton 22. Jayden Berrell

Analysis: The Sharks play the third major bye round and have a stunning draw from here on out.

They face the Bulldogs, Titans, Tigers, bye, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Titans, Knights, Dragons, Warriors and Sea Eagles.

It’s just about as good as it gets for the run home.

It makes Ronaldo Mulitalo very juicy at a bottomed out $492k which is mouthwatering.

With Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall both on deck, there’s no reason why he can’t elevate his scoring to that of earlier in the season.

Mulitalo averages 85.28 in eight games this season with Trindall and Hynes, including nine tries to his name.

At the price he looks the perfect fourth/fifth CTW for the run home to play on match-up, which with that draw is most weeks.

Briton Nikora has also caught the eye of plenty after breaking his season open with 120 points against the Dolphins before the bye.

There’s no doubting that at $570k he appeals, but he also averages just 60 this year with 47 in base which is solid.

Prior to that century, he had a five round average of just 51.4.

Prior to that Dolphins game, he had just one try, no try-assists and one line break in 11 games which does make me think that he surely only elevates his scoring from here.

Locked into 80 minutes with the soft draw I do like the buy, but I’m a little wary that the masses will flock to him which takes away some appeal from a guy that hasn’t been great this season.

At $871k, with a breakeven of 213, Nicho Hynes is about to plummet cash, but with the upcoming draw he’ll be a must-have from either next week or the week after.

Embed from Getty Images

WARRIORS v BRONCOS

Saturday, 3pm, Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Marata Niukore 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Dylan Walker 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Kurt Capewell

Reserves: 18. Tom Ale 20. Jacob Laban 21. Edward Kosi 22. Taine Tuaupiki 23. Moala Graham-Taufa

Analysis: Very little to be said about the Warriors after their 66-6 loss to the Titans with no round 19 coverage.

You couldn’t look to buy any at the moment, but we may get a number of them very cheap post bye period if they can turn a corner.

Addin Fonua-Blake is among the most sold this week, this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

He’s had a poor month with scores of 34, 53, 103 and 37 and is dropping rapidly in price at $667k with a breakeven of 130.

However he’s clearly one of the best FRF options in the game and is still getting good minutes, so trading him out seems a ridiculous option.

I’m still a non-owner and will look to pick him up when he bottoms out in price.

Shaun Johnson is out for a month due to injury.

Embed from Getty Images

Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Kobe Hetherington

Bench: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Fletcher Baker 16. Josiah Karapani 17. Martin Taupau

Reserves: 18. Joshua Rogers 19. Blake Mozer 20. Reece Walsh 21. Payne Haas 22. Patrick Carrigan 23. Corey Oates

Analysis: The Broncos do play the third major bye round.

There’s every chance they’re without some, if not all of their Origin stars on a three day back up in New Zealand.

I can’t make a strong case to buy any until after Origin three where they’ll become genuine options with a soft run home.

Reece Walsh and Payne Haas will be high on my radar once they’ve gotten through Origin.

Embed from Getty Images

KNIGHTS v EELS

Saturday, 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Knights: 1. Fletcher Sharpe 2. Enari Tuala 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Will Pryce 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Kai Pearce-Paul 17. Brodie Jones

Reserves: 18. Mathew Croker 19. Jack Hetherington 20. Jack Cogger 21. Krystian Mapapalangi 22. David Armstrong

Analysis: The Knights play the third major bye round and have a nice run upcoming against the Eels, Raiders and Sea Eagles (without Origin players).

Fletcher Sharpe looms as a potentially elite cheapie with scores of 72 and 62 against the Panthers and Storm.

Across those two games he had two tries, 11 tacklebreaks and 32 runs.

At just $204k, with a breakeven of -68, he could be a perfect pick-up to free up cash and hopefully get through until after round 19 where he should be sold for a tidy profit.

With David Armstrong lurking there is some job security, but he’s leaving the club and has also been playing wing in NSW Cup.

Debutant Will Pryce can also play fullback, but Sharpe looks relatively safe to me and a nice buy if you have a fullback slot available.

Looking for for the best rate on your home loan? Paddy and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best rate possible. It’s a super easy process, so flick them a message. Better yet, save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Last year’s sensation, Greg Marzhew, is ridiculously cheap at just $463k having scored just two tries in 11 games.

He’s averaging just 47 this season and has seven scores under 50.

It’s evident that Kalyn Ponga was imperative to his scoring, but he does present a case with the draw incoming.

His base and power numbers are still great, he just can’t find any attack.

Across his last six games, he’s had a ridiculous 41 tackle breaks and 105 runs. 

That’s 6.8 tacklebusts and 17.5 runs per game.

Just remember if interested, you’re paying $463k, not his starting price of $789k so he doesn’t have to average 77 points to be a worthwhile buy and he does have the potential to explode once Ponga returns.

Kai Pearce-Paul returns from injury and has been named on the bench.

Embed from Getty Images

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Blaize Talagi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Joe Ofahengaue

Bench: 14. Matthew Arthur 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Matt Doorey 17. Ryan Matterson

Reserves: 18. Daejarn Asi 19. Joey Lussick 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Jake Tago 22. Charlie Guymer

Analysis: The Eels play the third major bye round and have a great short-term run against the Knights, Rabbitohs and Titans.

After the Origin period they have a bye, Storm, Warriors (in NZ), Panthers, Roosters and Broncos.

For this reason they’re fairly short-term buy prospects for anyone interested, but I struggle to make a case even with signs of form coming back.

I’d be very nervous owning any attacking players for that post Origin period.

With Kelma Tuilagi out for an extended period, Shaun Lane starts on the edge, where he likely runs at Will Pryce which is an excellent match-up.

Blaize Talagi has great match-ups the next three rounds and looks a play in 17s.

The naming of promising rookie hooker Matt Arthur could be bad news for Brendan Hands owners moving forward.

Embed from Getty Images

STORM v RAIDERS

Saturday, 7:35pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Grant Anderson 4. Jack Howarth 5. Xavier Coates 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Christian Welch 15. Bronson Garlick 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Joe Chan

Reserves: 18. Reimis Smith 19. Dean Ieremia 20. Alec MacDonald 21. Kane Bradley 22. Sualauvi Faalogo 23. Chris Lewis

Analysis: The Storm don’t play the final major bye round, but with a gun attacking team and games against the Raiders and Tigers incoming they remain very relevant.

I’ve spoken at nauseam about them leading into last week’s bye so I’ll keep it brief.

Jahrome Hughes = Indefinite hold.

Harry Grant = Round 20/21 buy.

Ryan Papenhuyzen = Huge watch as he bottoms out, with Nick Meaney out he’ll likely goal-kick.

Tyran Wishart (aka the next Immortal) = Sell to Nicho/Cleary when time is right.

Sua Fa’alogo = Dropped, sell.

Eli Katoa = Keeper, buy.

Embed from Getty Images

Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Kaeo Weekes 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Ata Mariota 16. Trey Mooney 17. Jordan Martin

Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Zac Woolford 20. Adam Cook 21. James Schiller 22. Emre Guler

Analysis: The Raiders miss the next major bye round and are in awful form so they can essentially all be sold outside of Joe Tapine ahead of a brutal trip to Melbourne.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAGONS v DOLPHINS

Sunday, 2pm, Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Max Feagai 5. Mathew Feagai 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth

Bench: 14. Blake Lawrie 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Toby Couchman 17. Luciano Leilua

Reserves: 18. Michael Molo 19. Christian Tuipulotu 20. Ryan Couchman 21. Jesse Marschke 22. Jack Bird 23. Fa’amanu Brown

Analysis: The Dragons play the third major bye round but aren’t overly Supercoach relevant especially when it comes to keepers.

Zac Lomax is one of the more popular trade ins among all coaches, but I don’t love it.

Is he a keeper? Absolutely.

However he’ll miss round 19 due to Origin and round 20 on the bye with the Dragons, and he also plays the Roosters next week.

After the bye the Dragons face the Panthers and Storm.

At $779k, that’s a lot of coin sitting on the bench for a few weeks in one of the lesser attack relevant teams.

Embed from Getty Images

Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Tesi Niu 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Kenny Bromwich 11. Connelly Lemuelu 12. Euan Aitken 13. Max Plath

Bench: 14. Felise Kaufusi 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Tevita Pangai Junior

Reserves: 18. Josh Kerr 19. Sean O’Sullivan 20. Kurt Donoghoe 21. Trai Fuller 22. Oryn Keeley

Analysis: The Dolphins do play round 19 making them relevant, but they are on the bye next week which is worth noting.

With their outstanding Origin period bye schedule I’ve already spoken time and time again about them so I won’t go into too much detail.

Jamayne Isaako has bottomed out at $614k and is a decent purchase.

He looks the ideal fifth CTW for the run home to play on match-up, while providing an extra round 19 number.

There will be highs and lows, but with a bottom score of 41 this season he’s a joy to own.

Max Plath and Euan Aitken continue to chip away and remain relevant, while Herbie Farnworth remains a very viable POD play for the run home.

Embed from Getty Images

PANTHERS v COWBOYS

Sunday, 4:05pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Daine Laurie 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Matt Eisenhuth

Reserves: 18. Brad Schneider 19. Mavrik Geyer 20. Luron Patea 21. Casey McLean 22. Luke Sommerton 23. Trent Toelau 24. Tyrone Peachey

Analysis: Penrith don’t play the final major bye round and are every chance to rest players after both Origin games to come.

Brian To’o is a fairly popular purchase this week following back-to-back tonnes including a monster 171 against Manly.

I don’t particularly like him out on the left wing where he’d been starved of attacking ball prior to that game, but with a base of 36 he’s reliable regardless.

All that being said, I don’t love the buy at $776k due to the resting risk. 

I’d be surprised if he didn’t rest either this weekend or after Origin three, potentially both.

The extended turnaround on Sunday is very handy, but also tricky if you do trade him in and he gets ruled out on Sunday.

With a soft run home for the Panthers I’ll eye him from after the Origin period as a POD play.

All of the above applies to Dylan Edwards as well.

Izack Tago is at a ridiculous price of $433k with a reasonable 55 average this season.

He also has a base of 34 per game which is excellent.

He went back-to-back tonnes in round 2 and 3, since then he’s scored over 47 just twice (58 and 74).

In that stretch of 10 games he has just two tries and no try-assists.

Nathan Cleary is due back potentially next week, but perhaps more likely after the round 19 bye.

In four games, with Cleary as his halfback inside him this season, he has scores of 46, 145, 100 and 34.

In seven games to begin 2023 with Cleary he averaged 85.43 points per game including highs of 158 and 124, and just one score under 53.

There was only a couple of other games they played together in which Tago was injured in both.

One to monitor in coming weeks…

Embed from Getty Images

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jake Clifford 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Harrison Edwards 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Sam McIntyre

Bench: 14. Tomas Chester 15. Jake Granville 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Griffin Neame

Reserves: 18. Thomas Duffy 19. Jamal Shibasaki 20. Valentine Holmes 21. Murray Taulagi 22. Tom Dearden 23. Reece Robson 24. Reuben Cotter

Analysis: The Cowboys don’t play round 19 and face the Panthers in Penrith this week.

They also face a tough run of games for the remainder of the season, although it is worth nothing that after this week they do play six of their final eight games in Townsville which is a huge boost.

Owners of Scott Drinkwater, Val Holmes, Heilum Luki and the rest will be praying for Penrith to mass rest in this fixture.

Let’s see how they go over the next few weeks then reassess any buys after their round 19 bye.

Embed from Getty Images

ROOSTERS v TIGERS

Sunday, 6:15pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Sitili Tupouniua 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Terrell May 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Spencer Leniu 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Sandon Smith 19. Siua Wong 20. Blake Steep 21. Ethan King 22. Michael Jennings 23. Salesi Foketi 24. Delasalle Vaa

Analysis: The Roosters miss round 19 but are in red-hot form and have a soft run home.

They played the first two major bye rounds so they’ve been the most spoken about team for many months, so most of what I’d say would just be repeating myself.

Sam Walker is an indefinite hold and probably gets moved to Hynes/Cleary at some stage soon.

After missing one week, yes just one week, plenty sold Dom Young…

He’s now down to 65% ownership among the top 10% overall, leading into games against the Tigers and Dragons!

If you sold, I advise you stomach your pride and buy him back at $712k as there could be a pair of big scores coming up and he’s every chance to be the top averaging CTW on the run home.

Embed from Getty Images

Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Solomona Faataape 3. Brent Naden 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Luke Laulilii 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Reuben Porter 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Justin Matamua

Bench: 14. Heath Mason 15. Sione Fainu 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. David Klemmer

Reserves: 18. Kit Laulilii 19. Charlie Staines 20. Tallyn Da Silva 21. John Bateman 22. Justin Olam

Analysis: The Tigers put in a stunning performance against the Raiders to give themselves a tick of Supercoach relevance leading into round 19 which they play.

Api Koroisau went huge and looks a decent buy at $637k.

He may have some lower scores on the run home, but with his attacking upside and goal-kicking duties intact there’ll be some higher scores too no doubt.

The hooking position isn’t overly appealing at the moment, so you can lock him in as a keeper if you buy.

Lachlan Galvin rewarded the patience of owners who held tight during his injury.

He tonned up against the Raiders and will hopefully be around that $600k mark before being moved on after round 19 for a keeper.

After attacking stats eluded him for the early part of the year, Samuela Fainu found plenty against the Raiders for 89 points. 

While fairly attack reliant, at $517k with dual FRF-2RF positioning and bye coverage to come he remains a great pick up.

Again, there will be some lower scores but he’s also a focal point of their attack.

Viewing him as a 2RF he isn’t a keeper, viewing him as a FRF he’s definitely a season long hold provided the 80 minute role remains which it’s very likely to do.

John Bateman has been named on the extended bench on return from injury and could come in for Reuben Porter.