Round 18 NRL Team Lists: Supercoach Analysis

NRL Round 18 is set to deliver a full set of games, what a blessing!

With mass Origin restings and injuries causing late outs in round 17, it reinforced for future Supercoach seasons that these mini bye rounds in the week following Origin with three teams on the bye are often the trickiest of the year.

Hopefully everyone scrambled their way to a full team and were able to knock out a decent score.

The Cooma Stallions went reasonably well with 1,131 points to move up a few spots to almost bang on 10k overall.

Still a long way from where we need to be, but it’s two weeks of trending in the right direction so I shan’t be too bitter!

I did manage to save two trades which is very reassuring heading into the business end of the season, although after saying I’d get Greg Marzhew all week I held off when Kai Pearce-Paul started and Sua Fa’alogo played fullback with Ryan Papenhuyzen out. 

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Not to worry…

In more positive news my dreaded captaincy curse was broken with a James Tedesco masterclass on Sunday night, granted about 70% of top ranked coaches also had Teddy.

In less positive news, my Joey Manu curse remains alive and well after the big fella went down early in the same contest.

Some partnerships just aren’t meant to be…

The Spy brought in Jeremy Marshall-King that day who lasted about 20 minutes and could be gone for the season, so there’s always someone out there who’s had a tougher day than you!

Let’s get stuck into the NRL Supercoach Round 18 analysis, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.

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EELS v RABBITOHS

Thursday, 7:50pm, CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Jake Tago 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Blaize Talagi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Ryan Matterson 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Shaun Lane

Bench: 14. Matthew Arthur 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Matt Doorey 17. Charlie Guymer

Reserves: 18. Daejarn Asi 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Morgan Harper 22. Luca Moretti

Analysis: Parramatta play the final bye round next week.

Blaize Talagi continues to score well, he’s scored in six consecutive games including a double against the Knights that could easily have been a hat-trick and a tonne.

The right edge of Parramatta is sizzling at the moment with Talagi reaping the rewards.

Hold for the next two match-ups against the Rabbitohs and Titans then sell for a hefty price for their round 20 bye.

Bryce Cartwright knocked out 85 in that clash and remains a POD pick-up, although with a brutal run home I do believe he’s more of a short-term play and not a season keeper.

Ryan Matterson starts on the edge, while Shaun Lane starts at lock.

Maika Sivo is out for an extended period with a hamstring injury, Jake Tago starting on the wing.

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Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Cameron Murray 12. Jai Arrow 13. Keaon Koloamatangi

Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tallis Duncan 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Michael Chee Kam

Reserves: 18. Jye Gray 19. Liam Le Blanc 20. Fletcher Myers 21. Adam Christensen 22. Thomas Fletcher

Analysis: The Rabbitohs have finished their byes for the season and have found form over the last month of footy.

Their next month is soft, but from round 22 onwards it becomes a horrible run home.

Head-to-head focused players take note with a run from round 23-27 against the Storm, Tigers, Knights, Panthers and Roosters.

Cody Walker earned dual HFB-5/8 status this week and remains a decent buy.

The five-eighth position isn’t overly strong at the moment so if you’re buying you’re probably holding for the season, including that tougher run home.

Keaon Koloamatangi was/is/should be on my radar, but I’m a little wary.

He’s been a beast since moving to the middle with a five round average of 82 points.

However, with Cameron Murray back and Jai Arrow getting season-ending shoulder surgery either after this game or next, there’s every chance he moves back to the edge.

This isn’t killer news to his Supercoach prospects as he can still score well, but it has been the move to the middle which has seen his scoring soar.

Murray has surprisingly been named to start on the edge, whether that plays out remains to be seen.

Damien Cook has attracted lots of attention this week with an outstanding five round average of 90 points.

I don’t love it as he’s now at $709k with a season average of 67 which is almost on par with the top echelon of hookers.

My concern is that unless the Rabbitohs make a big run to come home he’s likely to see lesser minutes in the back end of the season as he’s leaving the club next year.

They’ll want to get time into future starting hooker Peter Mamouzelos if that does occur.

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SHARKS v TITANS

Friday, 6pm, C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Coffs Harbour

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Daniel Atkinson 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Thomas Hazelton 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Siosifa Talakai 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Teig Wilton

Reserves: 18. Jesse Colquhoun 19. Tom Rodwell 20. Braden Hamlin-Uele 21. Tuku Hau Tapuha 22. Jayden Berrell

Analysis: The Sharks play the third final bye round, then have one bye left in round 20.

Nicho Hynes has dropped out of form and price to $741k, so the question is do we buy back now with a breakeven of 118 or wait and watch another week?

I suggest buy…

Keep in mind I’m currently an owner and would like nothing more than for people to wait a week, but with a match-up with the leaky Titans defence he could blast through that 118 breakeven.

Ronaldo Mulitalo is a ridiculous price of just $469k this week and appeals with the draw.

After a blistering start to the season, most thought his downfall in scoring was associated with the loss of Braydon Trindall on the left edge.

However he managed just 41 points with a try-assist against the Bulldogs.

More to the problem could be the loss of Siosifa Talakai on his inside, and the arrival of Kayal Iro.

When Iro first came into the team in round 4, Mulitalo scored three straight doubles in the first three games.

Since then he’s scored just two tries in nine games.

The early onslaught of tries suggests maybe Iro isn’t a concern, but the run since says otherwise.

I still think Mulitalo is a good buy, but it is something to consider about the star winger before recruiting. 

There’s a few selling Iro this week, but with the draw to come and round 19 coverage I’d absolutely be holding for a minimum of two more weeks.

He’s worth far more than his $493k price tag right now suggests. He has a base of 43 this season which may be number one in the CTW position.

Briton Nikora delivered for his host of new owners with 79 points and remains a great pick-up.

Sione Katoa is out due to concussion, with Daniel Atkinson a surprise replacement on the wing.

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Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. AJ Brimson 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall

Bench: 14. Isaac Liu 15. Josiah Pahulu 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Joe Stimson

Reserves: 18. Tanah Boyd 19. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 20. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 21. Ken Maumalo 22. Jaylan De Groot

Analysis: The Titans have finished their byes for the season.

David Fifita seems like a big chance at an Origin recall for game three, if I was a non-owner I’d wait a week and see how that plays out.

Jayden Campbell isn’t available with a broken hand, but he should return next week according to reports.

Keano Kini has been incredible over the last month with scores of 153, 112, 43 and 132.

He’s now $685k with a breakeven of -49 and could be a great short-term play with games against the Sharks, Eels, Sea Eagles and Dolphins.

I do believe that he’s a sell from round 21 or 22 when the draw gets tougher though, so I’m not all that interested in getting him at that price then having to trade him out again in a month.

Despite putting 66 on a hapless Warriors outfit, I just don’t trust the Titans to be honest, so I’m not interested.

Beau Fermor earned dual 2RF-CTW status in a huge win for owners, he’s a hold until after round 19 then reassess.

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BRONCOS v PANTHERS

Friday, 8pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Deine Mariner 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Kobe Hetherington 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Josiah Karapani 17. Martin Taupau

Reserves: 18. Tristan Sailor 19. Joshua Rogers 20. Cory Paix 21. Blake Mozer 22. Kotoni Staggs

Analysis: The Broncos play the final major bye round, but with Penrith this week and their Supercoach relevant players all Origin bound I’m not overly interested in anyone until after the game three decider.

Josiah Karapani owners with hopes of making quick cash and getting round 19 coverage were dealt a cruel blow as he came off the bench for 1 point against the Warriors.

Even with Kotoni Staggs (extended bench) likely out, he’s still been named on the bench.

They’ll be hoping he finds his way into the starting team next week for round 19.

Payne Haas and Reece Walsh look like genuine options for the run home, but don’t go early.

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Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Daine Laurie 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Matt Eisenhuth

Reserves: 18. Brad Schneider 19. Luron Patea 20. Trent Toelau 21. Casey McLean 22. Luke Sommerton

Analysis: The Panthers miss Round 19 on a bye and are again every chance to rest Origin players in Round 20 as they did last weekend.

For that reason, I’d be reluctant to bring in Brian To’o at $776k despite the -30 breakeven.

It’s a lot of money and a key trade for a bloke who may well play Brisbane at Suncorp then miss two games in a row.

Last week I flagged Izack Tago’s stats with and without Nathan Cleary over the last two seasons, those numbers held up with the strike centre only able to knock out 36 against the Cowboys at home.

He could be sub $400k when Cleary returns after Origin and be a steal, despite a clear lapse in form at the moment.

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BULLDOGS v WARRIORS

Saturday, 3pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jaeman Salmon 13. Bailey Hayward

Bench: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Josh Curran 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Lipoi Hopoi

Reserves: 19. Jeral Skelton 20. Jake Turpin 21. Blake Taaffe 22. Harry Hayes 23. Jack Todd

Analysis: The Bulldogs miss round 19 which is their final bye of the season.

For that reason, I don’t think they’re overly relevant this week, but with a soft run home they’ll hit the radar again from round 20 onwards.

Bailey Hayward earned dual HFB-2RF status last week and is an option at $269k with a breakeven of 5.

Still no Jacob Preston…

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Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Dylan Walker 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Jackson Ford

Reserves: 18. Jacob Laban 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Ali Leiataua 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Leka Halasima

Analysis: The Warriors miss round 19 and have another bye in round 27, making them fairly unappealing at the moment despite a win over the Baby Broncos.

For POD hunters, Te Maire Martin has scores of 93, 115, 111 and 102 this season without Shaun Johnson for an average of 105.25.

He’s dual 5/8-FLB with a fairly soft run home, but despite the impressive numbers I’m not enticed namely due to the draw and $696k price tag.

Addin Fonua-Blake has hit a slump with a three round average of just 44 points.

He’s just dropped to $602k with a breakeven of 111 and will be dirt cheap in a few weeks time for anyone looking to pick-up the prolific front-row try-scorer.

Chanel Harris-Tavita scored 75 with a pair of tries on the weekend and is just $274k with a breakeven of -7.

Unfortunately, despite being one of the most versatile players in the competition, he’s available at HFB only.

He played three games as a starting five-eighth this season, so he probably should have been given it in positional updates but not to worry.

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TIGERS v STORM

Saturday, 5:30pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. John Bateman 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Justin Matamua

Bench: 14. Heath Mason 15. Sione Fainu 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. David Klemmer

Reserves: 18. Reuben Porter 19. Tallyn Da Silva 20. Solomon Alaimalo 21. Kit Laulilii 22. Justin Olam

Analysis: The Tigers play round 19 then have their final bye in round 26.

With games against the Storm then Sharks they aren’t overly appealing outside of players already owned.

18-year-old Lachy Galvin scored 59 in a team beaten 40-6 in wet conditions on the weekend which is outstanding.

He’s a hold until round 20, then we can reassess his longevity from there.

Cheapie Reuben Porter played just 53 minutes against the Rooster but managed a very acceptable 53 points, including 43 in base.

Unfortunately for owners John Bateman‘s return means he moves to 18th man in a huge blow for cash generation and a potential extra number next week.

If he shifts to a bench role in limited minutes he could become an AE nightmare, or nuff with only 2RF positioning which is less than ideal.

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Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Grant Anderson 4. Jack Howarth 5. Kane Bradley 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Bronson Garlick 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Sualauvi Faalogo 15. Christian Welch 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Joe Chan

Reserves: 18. Reimis Smith 19. Alec MacDonald 20. Dean Ieremia 21. Chris Lewis 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Analysis: The Storm miss round 19 which is their final bye of the season.

Ryan Papenhuyzen has been named at fullback in a big win for owners, however he does remain in doubt with a foot issue.

With a great match-up against his former club, this will be a big watch all week, also for Sua Fa’alogo owners who would again play fullback if Papi misses out.

Fa’alogo is $531k with a breakeven of 90 and has been named on the bench, if he did start I’d be holding for this great match-up, if he doesn’t he’ll be out of the Stallions side.

Hold all Storm players through this match-up, then reassess before next week’s bye if they’re season keepers or if they’re able to be moved on.

After reports suggested Jack Howarth would be out for a week or two, he’s surprisingly been named to start at centre.

Reimis Smith is however lingering at 18th man.

No Harry Grant for a second week running is a huge blow for his owners.

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COWBOYS v SEA EAGLES

Saturday, 7:35pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame

Reserves: 18. Jake Granville 19. Braidon Burns 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Jake Clifford 22. Jaxon Purdue

Analysis: Form-wise the Cowboys have burst back to Supercoach relevance over the last month and a bit.

Draw-wise they lack a bit of appeal though with a bye next week and again in round 25, then tough games against the Bulldogs and Sharks after Origin.

Add in the fact that Origin players may not back up again after the game three decider and it further reduces appeal.

Let’s reassess from round 20 onwards once the bye has passed and we have info on Origin players backing up.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Tolutau Koula 2. Jason Saab 3. Tom Trbojevic 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Toafofoa Sipley 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Lehi Hopoate 15. Karl Lawton 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown

Reserves: 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Aaron Schoupp 20. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 21. Caleb Navale 22. Aitasi James

Analysis: Manly play the next major bye round, then have their final bye in round 22.

With Tom Trbojevic returning Lehi Hopoate drops to the bench in a blow for owners wanting him as a key number next week.

With a breakeven of 1, you’d ideally hold for the cash rise albeit likely small, and the potential for a starting number next week if he were to find himself back in the starting team.

Hopefully Turbo drops plenty from his $769k price tag while playing centre, before returning at fullback for the run home at a discount.

Tolutau Koula becomes very appealing having been named at fullback at just $434k.

In his only game at the back this season, he scored 79 against the Broncos at Suncorp.

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The risk lies in Tommy and when he shifts to fullback, but you’d think he at least gets a few weeks at the back if not longer.

With a breakeven of 47 it can probably wait a week as we saw those who went early last time he played fullback get burned.

Haumole Olakau’atu is popular this week at a bargain rate of $598k having bottomed out after his 13 points in 24 minutes against Penrith a few weeks back.

Disregarding that Penrith game, he’s averaging a keeper-like 75.45 points per game.

In those games he’s averaging 5.1 tackle busts.

He’ll obviously miss next week due to Origin so it can wait, but I have no major knock on anyone going early.

Reuben Garrick returns from a head knock and is ripe for picking either this week or next with a breakeven of 114.

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ROOSTERS v DRAGONS

Sunday, 2pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Michael Jennings 4. Sitili Tupouniua 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Naufahu Whyte 15. Terrell May 16. Nat Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu

Reserves: 18. Ethan King 19. Siua Wong 20. Sandon Smith 21. Blake Steep 22. Salesi Foketi

Analysis: The Roosters miss round 19 and then have another bye in round 23 which takes a fair bit of appeal away from their Supercoach contingent despite another tantalising match-up with the Dragons this week.

I would buy Dom Young regardless of the above, he’s clearly a must-have for the run home and could have scored 170 if Joey Manu didn’t get hurt early in the demolition of the Tigers.

Joey Manu is set to miss a month of footy which could be as few as two games potentially as the Roosters don’t play next week anyway.

The round 23 bye is awkward as he likely misses round 20 (Storm), then may return for round 21 (Sea Eagles) or Round 22 (Dolphins).

If you’re short on trades, let’s say sub 13, I’d be very tempted to hold, if you have more then 15 he looks like a sell. 

The appeal is that after round 23 the Roosters face the Eels, Titans, Raiders and Rabbitohs where he could finish huge, I’ll likely sell and look to buy back post bye.

With plenty of players to pick from this week, Terrell May is a genuine sit candidate from 17s as minutes may be very limited.

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Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth

Bench: 14. Blake Lawrie 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Toby Couchman 17. Luciano Leilua

Reserves: 18. Michael Molo 19. Fa’amanu Brown 20. Ryan Couchman 21. Savelio Tamale 22. Jack Bird

Analysis: The Dragons do play Round 19, but I still have very little interest in their Supercoach contingent.

People are again looking to buy Zac Lomax but he’ll miss next week due to Origin then Round 20 on the bye. 

His scoring will also be limited against the ruthless Roosters defence. Pass.

Jacob Liddle has been on a low-key tear with a five round average of 75 points with three tries in that period playing 80 minutes each week.

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RAIDERS v KNIGHTS

Sunday, 4:05pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Albert Hopoate 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Adam Cook 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Ata Mariota 16. Trey Mooney 17. Simi Sasagi

Reserves: 18. Sebastian Kris 19. Zac Woolford 20. Emre Guler 21. James Schiller 22. Hohepa Puru

Analysis: The Raiders miss round 19 and present no Supercoach appeal at the moment.

Joe Tapine is the only keeper in this team, and I wouldn’t be rushing to buy as a non-owner.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Enari Tuala 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Will Pryce 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Fletcher Sharpe 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Brodie Jones 17. Dylan Lucas

Reserves: 18. Mathew Croker 19. Jack Hetherington 20. Jack Cogger 21. Krystian Mapapalangi 22. Thomas Cant

Analysis: The Knights play round 19 and are finding some attacking flair of late.

With a fairly soft run home, including an excellent head-to-head finals draw from round 23 onwards and the return of Kalyn Ponga there’s a few players that appeal.

Ponga’s shock return is devastating for the masses who flocked to Fletcher Sharpe last week who now finds himself on the bench.

Owners will be crossing fingers and toes Ponga gives it another week, allowing Sharpe to get in one more big rise.

Greg Marzhew burst back to his best against the Eels after a disappointing season that saw him averaging just 47 points before his 120 on the weekend.

At $505k he’s a bargain price that could be set to explode when Ponga returns.

For those with short memories, the beast averaged 77 points last season!

Dylan Lucas returns from a niggle on the bench for now, meaning Kai Pearce-Paul has been named to start for the time being.

He’s been disappointing of late and has been a tough hold.

I’ll hold for the extra number next week then move him on immediately after.

Bradman Best went huge with 130 on the weekend to take his season average to 62 points.

He’s a very popular buy but I’m not overly convinced, he’s always had big scores but has never been overly consistent despite a great base of 37 per game.

He scored 130 against the Eels and 127 against the Tigers, excluding his injury impacted game against the Titans he has four scores under 40 in 12 games.

I don’t think he’ll let you down as such, but at $649k his price is getting up there.

Jayden Brailey starts at hooker with Phoenix Crossland out due to a head knock.