Round 20 NRL Team Lists: Supercoach Analysis

The major bye period is over for 2024, thankfully!

Aside from one less game and a few likely restings this week, we finally get the opportunity to pick from a near full strength Supercoach squad.

With the major bye period done, the run home to NRL Supercoach glory begins.

Whether you’re in the hunt for the overall crown, or fighting for head-to-head glory against mates, we’re approaching the business end of the season.

The time is now to set your team up for the final stretch, prioritise the guns you desperately want and put a plan in place to get them back into your team.

I traditionally go very hard on trades over the next two to three week stretch to get my team exactly how I want it to finish the season, and this year will be no different.

I’m looking at utilising my final boost of the season to bolster my squad.

And boy does it need it…

The Stallions managed just 888 points last round for a small drop to remain in 11k overall (closer to 12k than 11k unfortunately).

We have 13 trades left leading into the weekend, so hopefully the ability to go hard on the run home can help regain some respectability at Stallions HQ.

Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach Round 20 team analysis, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.

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RAIDERS v WARRIORS

Friday, 8pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Trey Mooney 16. Ata Mariota 17. Zac Hosking

Reserves: 18. Adam Cook 19. Albert Hopoate 20. Simi Sasagi 21. Zac Woolford 22. Emre Guler

Analysis: Tom Starling may grab some interest at $299k with a -31 breakeven after starting the past two games for the Raiders.

However he could revert back to a 30 minute bench role at any stage. Pass.

There’s no Supercoach interest in the Raiders at the moment outside of Joseph Tapine who is a hold for owners.

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Warriors: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Adam Pompey 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Jackson Ford 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Leka Halasima

Reserves: 18. Tom Ale 20. Bunty Afoa 21. Edward Kosi 22. Moala Graham-Taufa 23. Jacob Laban

Analysis: Mitch Barnett has flown under the radar of late with a three round average of 106 points and a five round average of 97 points.

However, at $776k, I think the ship has sailed.

For any Supercoaches who don’t own Addin Fonua-Blake that are in need of a front-rower, he’s now at a bargain rate of just $562k and is a great pick-up.

Minimal interest elsewhere at the Warriors until we see a bit of form.

With Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad injured, Taine Tuaupiki starts at fullback, while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck shifts to the wing where he’ll be a close watch.

Ali Leiataua is a genuine cheapie downgrade option at $238k ahead of his second game.

He played Penrith in round 11, scoring 65 points in an impressive debut.

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RABBITOHS v TIGERS

Saturday, 3pm, Industree Group Stadium, Gosford

Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Cameron Murray 12. Michael Chee Kam 13. Keaon Koloamatangi

Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tallis Duncan 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Siliva Havili

Reserves: 18. Dion Teaupa 19. Fletcher Myers 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Thomas Fletcher 22. Jacob Host

Analysis: Jye Gray delivered for the Stallions last week with 64 points.

While the time to buy was last week for the bye coverage, at $318k with a breakeven of -33 and dual 5/8-FLB positioning with a soft Tigers match-up he remains a decent buy.

South Sydney players are more about holds than buys at this stage for the most part.

Stick strong with Cody Walker and Keaon Koloamatangi for the foreseeable future, likely until the end of season.

I like Cameron Murray for the run home at $523k with attacking upside, the concern will be if minutes reduce as the Rabbitohs fall completely out of finals contention.

With big minutes incoming in Origin, a quick turnaround and a breakeven of 70 it can wait a week anyway.

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Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Solomona Faataape 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. David Klemmer 11. John Bateman 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Fonua Pole

Bench: 14. Latu Fainu 15. Alex Twal 16. Sione Fainu 17. Jordan Miller

Reserves: 18. Justin Matamua 19. Heath Mason 20. Reuben Porter 21. Solomon Alaimalo 22. Apisai Koroisau

Analysis: Despite being named on the reserves, Api Koroisau is likely out for a week or two despite being named on the extended bench which is a good result for owners who anticipated a forced trade this week.

Provided you have cover for the next week or two at hooker I think he’s definitely a hold if out this week.

The only other real talking point is whether to hold or sell Lachlan Galvin.

He’s still good value at $571k and despite his high ownership, plenty will sell off in coming weeks so I do think he’ll be in relative POD range soon enough.

As solid as he is, I do think with the Tigers are likely to throw in the towel for the run home at stages so there are far higher upside five-eighth options to pick up. I think he’s a sell.

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KNIGHTS v BRONCOS

Saturday, 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Krystian Mapapalangi 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Will Pryce 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Dylan Lucas

Reserves: 18. Tyson Gamble 19. Mathew Croker 20. Thomas Cant 21. Fletcher Sharpe 22. Thomas Jenkins

Analysis: Kalyn Ponga will attract plenty of interest this week, but I think it’s a wait and watch for a few rounds.

He’s at $786k with a breakeven of 180 and faces a desperate Broncos outfit this week, then has the bye, then plays Penrith away.

The Knights play the Tigers in Newcastle in round 23 where he’ll be far cheaper, make plans to get him in for a soft run home that week.

The same goes for the entire Knights side who aren’t appealing as buys until then.

Greg Marzhew managed just 14 against the Sea Eagles, don’t be too deterred though as he had a cork for a large part of the game and had no opportunity with Bradman Best and Kalyn Ponga out who feed him plenty of quality ball.

Will Pryce has been named in the halves with Tyson Gamble named at 18th man which may be a switch later in the week.

If Pryce misses out he’ll be a sell having made just $52k and is a sell, ouch.

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Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Joshua Rogers 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington

Bench: 14. Blake Mozer 15. Tyson Smoothy 16. Josiah Karapani 17. Martin Taupau

Reserves: 18. Vaa Semu 19. Cory Paix 20. Reece Walsh 21. Selwyn Cobbo 22. Patrick Carrigan 23. Payne Haas 24. Adam Reynolds

Analysis: Despite being winless since Magic Round the Broncos have my interest, at few of them anyway.

They have a soft run home and every game is vital to them as they fight to play finals footy.

While the Origin stars have been named on the extended bench, I expect them to back-up provided they get through unscathed.

Reece Walsh is very appealing at $763k despite likely losing the goal-kicking duties very soon with Adam Reynolds a surprise naming on the extended bench.

Dating back to Round 10, he has a three round average of 96 points and could explode on the run home.

Excluding his 1 point game in four minutes against the Panthers he’s averaging 80.2 this season.

Payne Haas will be forced to play big minutes on the run home and is every chance to be the top averaging FRF.

He’s priced at $701k with a breakeven of 68 and unsurprisingly hasn’t scored under 50 this season. I think he’s a terrific pick-up.

Jesse Arthars has a three round average of just 18 points!

Despite this, I actually think he’s a buy. Hear me out…

Plenty will take a nuff option to free up cash, but Arthars is now just $240k which is almost bottom dollar.

In a desperate Broncos side with Reece Walsh back, I think he’s a very handy seventh CTW to own with no plans to actually play him.

But as inevitable carnage hits late in the season you might find yourself having Arthars as an extra number up your sleeve rather than the nuff and that extra $40k.

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STORM v ROOSTERS

Saturday, 7:35pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Sualauvi Faalogo 15. Christian Welch 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves: 18. Reimis Smith 19. Joe Chan 20. Dean Ieremia 21. Chris Lewis 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Analysis: Here’s hoping both teams back-up their Origin stars for what will be a blockbuster clash, but I’m not convinced they will.

Harry Grant is dealing with a sternum injury which will have him in major doubt.

Tyran Wishart can be moved to Nathan Cleary next week likely for $50k which is remarkable.

Ryan Papenhuyzen is just $652k and will likely be a POD fullback for the run home with games after this week against the Eels, Dragons and Rabbitohs. 

With a breakeven of 100 it can wait a week.

There’ll be a big watch on Storm players this week ahead of potential buys next round.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Sitili Tupouniua 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Terrell May 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Sandon Smith 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Naufahu Whyte

Reserves: 18. Ethan King 19. Siua Wong 20. Blake Steep 21. Jake Elliott 22. Salesi Foketi 23. Michael Jennings 24. Zach Dockar-Clay

Analysis: The Roosters are also every chance to rest certain players.

Make plans to get Angus Crichton into your team as the best 2RF this season.

Surely after playing 80 for the Blues on a three day back-up he’s either rested or plays fewer minutes?

Perhaps not, time will tell.

Regardless, with a breakeven of 121 I’m happy to wait until next week.

Connor Watson looks a great pick-up and barring injuries shouldn’t play too many minutes in Origin.

He’s just $677k with a breakeven of 63 and a 66 point average as an 80 minute player since round 6.

In his last seven games he’s averaged 82.57 with an absurd 62.57 in base!

In that period he has just one try and two try-assists.

With Jared Waerea-Hargreaves suspended for four weeks who has averaged 37 minutes per game this season, Terrell May likely becomes a hold with bigger minutes now more assured.

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PANTHERS v DOLPHINS

Sunday, 2pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Paul Alamoti 6. Brad Schneider 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Luke Garner 13. Matt Eisenhuth

Bench: 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luron Patea

Reserves: 18. Isaiah Iongi 19. Mavrik Geyer 20. Soni Luke 21. Tyrone Peachey 22. Jarome Luai 23. Brian To’o 24. Liam Martin

Analysis: Nathan Cleary returns and is likely to be a must-have soon enough with Penrith boasting a nice run home.

Some people are moving early to get a jump on others with a soft fixture against the Dolphins in Penrith, I’m not entirely convinced it’s the right move though.

Firstly, he has a mammoth breakeven of 189 so there’s very likely to be big price drops incoming, potentially over $100k.

Secondly, he’s returning from a hamstring injury he’s hurt twice already this season, so does he ease back into it? Namely his running game that accumulates so many Supercoach points.

Thirdly, do Penrith’s Origin stars back-up after game three? There’s every chance they rest which brings the Dolphins right back into this contest if so.

Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo haven’t been named, while the others are on the extended bench.

Not for me this week, I’ll be making plans for next week.

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To reiterate what I wrote a few backs with Izack Tago…

Tago is at a ridiculous price of $398k with a reasonable 53 point average this season.

He also has a base of 34 per game which is excellent.

He went back-to-back tonnes in round 2 and 3, since then he’s scored over 47 just twice (58 and 74).

In that stretch of 12 games he has just two tries and no try-assists.

In four games with Cleary as his halfback inside him this season, he has scores of 46, 145, 100 and 34.

In seven games to begin 2023 with Cleary he averaged 85.43 points per game including highs of 158 and 124, and just one score under 53.

There was only a couple of other games they played together in which Tago was injured in both.

He looks a nice way to free up cash for bigger trades and to have as a sixth or seventh CTW to play based on match-ups.

Brian To’o is flying with a three round average of 120, but as a result he’s at $866k.

With Cleary back who will get plenty of ball on the opposite side I don’t think he’s worth that cash.

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Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich

Bench: 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Trai Fuller

Reserves: 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Tesi Niu 20. Anthony Milford 21. Mason Teague 22. Oryn Keeley

Analysis: The Dolphins present little interest with an extremely tough run home.

They face the Panthers, Titans, Roosters, Warriors, Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos and Knights.

Just three of those games are at Suncorp Stadium, two of which are against the Broncos and Titans.

Their players are fine to hold, but I wouldn’t look to buy any.

Even the likes of Herbie Farnworth and Jamayne Isaako could be sells.

Tevita Pangai Jnr is probably the exception on the potential buy radar following his 90 points against the Rabbitohs.

He’s just $379k with dual FRF-2RF positioning.

In 51 minutes against the Rabbitohs, he had 15 runs (14 over 8m for 2 points), three offloads, four tackle busts, a try and a line break which are elite attacking numbers for a FRF.

The question will be whether or not he maintains the minutes, but if he does he could finish with a bang.

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SEA EAGLES v TITANS

Sunday, 4:05pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tommy Talau 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Nathan Brown 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Caleb Navale 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Jamie Humphreys 21. Corey Waddell 22. Taniela Paseka

Analysis: Manly have a soft run home, but they do face the Roosters next week into a bye which is awkward.

Tom Trbojevic fired last week at fullback with 119 points.

As good as he looked, note that the vast majority of his scoring came from his ballplaying when carving up the Knights edges which included two back-rowers at centre.

I think he’s a good buy at $730k, but I’m far from convinced he’ll be anywhere near his explosive best until the back end of the season.

That being said, the Titans match-up this week is terrific once again.

With some variety in the HFB position with Nicho Hynes out long-term, Daly Cherry-Evans becomes a very viable option at just $600k.

Historically, he always backs up from Origin so he should be good to go provided he gets through unscathed.

He has back-to-back scores of 82 and 105, with a 26 against the Panthers in Penrith before that which led to the lower price tag.

Additionally, if anything happens to Reuben Garrick he becomes the goal-kicker in a team with huge point scoring potential.

For those that don’t already own Sam Walker or Jahrome Hughes as a Cleary partner, I like the buy.

Ben Trbojevic has been named to return from a concussion on the bench which makes him a sell.

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Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall

Bench: 14. Isaac Liu 15. Klese Haas 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Josiah Pahulu

Reserves: 18. AJ Brimson 19. Joe Stimson 20. Tanah Boyd 21. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 22. Jaylan De Groot

Analysis: Despite finding form of late, there’s not a huge amount of Supercoach interest at the Titans with David Fifita already highly owned.

Keano Kini is a sell at $758k after being benched last week in favour of AJ Brimson at fullback.

For now Kini has been named to start, with Brimson 18th man, which just isn’t happening, so provided it does start as per last week you can move him on. Dezzy Hasler playing absolute silly buggers there…

The relevant player is the man with the hot hand in Jayden Campbell.

Having seemingly locked down the five-eighth position, he boasts a three round average of 119 points to sit at $743k with a breakeven of -30.

He’s also benefitted from the goal-kicking duties in a rejuvenated Titans attacking outfit.

Their run home is fairly tough, but upcoming matches against the Sea Eagles and Dolphins are favourable match-ups.

I think the ship has sailed, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers!

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COWBOYS v BULLDOGS

Sunday, 6:15pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jake Clifford 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Jake Granville 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Sam McIntyre

Bench: 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Jamal Shibasaki 17. Griffin Neame

Reserves: 18. Thomas Duffy 19. Semi Valemei 20. Valentine Holmes 21. Tom Dearden 22. Jeremiah Nanai 23. Reece Robson 24. Reuben Cotter

Analysis: With a fairly difficult run home I don’t love the Cowboys as buys, granted they do play five of seven games in Townsville which softens the fixtures a fair bit.

The likes of Valentine Holmes and Reece Robson are fine to hold, but I wouldn’t look to invest.

Scott Drinkwater is a POD fullback for the run home with a season average of 76 points, but I like others with softer draws.

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Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Lipoi Hopoi

Reserves: 19. Harry Hayes 20. Drew Hutchison 21. Hayze Perham 22. Jeral Skelton 23. Chris Patolo 25. Kitione Kautoga

Analysis: The Bulldogs have finished their byes and have a soft run home.

Matt Burton is dirt cheap at $539k with a breakeven of 48.

He’s cheap due to 16 point game in the wet against the Roosters in round 16 where he played centre and hardly touched the ball.

Outside of that, he’s averaging 78.18 points since round 4.

That includes a low score of 39 and his second lowest of 63.

Jacob Kiraz is on my radar at $714k with a breakeven of 126.

A lower score this week would see him drop well below the $700k mark and be ripe for picking for the run home.

The injury to Max King may be a gift to Sam Hughes owners who may be a viable third FRF option for the run home if he jags additional minutes.

You’d still be reluctant to play him, but he may be able to plug a spot when required.