The Final Word: Round 20 NRL Supercoach Strategy

NRL SuperCoach Strategy

It’s goodbye to the Major bye rounds in 2024, and hello to crunch time.

We’re now formally in the fourth quarter of the SuperCoach season but with every question that gets answered – heck yes Jayden Campbell is a Top 3 five-eighth for the run home – there’s plenty more that get thrown up.

The time to build your final team is now.

And if you traded out any guns prior to or during the Origin period, the sooner you can get them back means the sooner you can start enjoying them.

As I said in this article two weeks ago as trade numbers dwindle, the importance of each decision increases as the trades to correct mistakes or react to injuries become scarce.

Most coaches will be doing overtime at the moment on their trade planning to ensure that every trade is a step forward.

There should really only be three types of players on the menu at the moment; guns, nuffs, and downgrades with upside.

To be clear on my definition of a downgrade, they’re essentially any player who I think can well above the value that they’re currently priced at.

It could be a ‘fallen gun’ – like an Izack Tago – or just a player whose potential has increased due to circumstance – like a Tevita Pangai Junior.

To help you in navigating this period I am going to share my thoughts on what the perfect final 17 side could look like, and include some nuff and downgrade options at each position.

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Hookers

Best option: Connor Watson

Since moving into the starting lock role, Watson’s numbers have been off the charts and it’s no coincidence he earned an Origin call-up.

This position sucks for his ceiling but with a soft draw to end the year, it’s really only the Round 23 bye standing in the way of Watson scoring the most points at hooker for the rest of the year.

Contenders for the throne:

Reece Robson, 64.6 average.

Tough draw but he’s been excellent this season and has a lot of home games where he could find attacking stats

Reed Mahoney, 65.9 average.

Very solid draw this year and no more byes this season.

Harry Grant, 64.4 average.

Normally the king, but does a sternum injury hold him back?

Downgrades:

Chris Randall, $519k.

Slowly coming into relevance while starting at lock for the improved Titans.

Wayde Egan, $403k.

A 5RA of 44 doesn’t scream “buy” but if he were to get back to 80 minutes he’d be an elite option.

Tom Starling, $299k.

Good minutes in the last two games for the Raiders but would you want to use a trade on a Ricky Stuart coached player?

Peter Mamouzelos, $204k.

Could he be the starting hooker soon if Souths are out of Finals contention?

Nuffs:

Jamie Humphreys, $204k.

Good upside if he does play. Handy dual too.

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FRF:

Best options: Payne Haas and Mitch Barnett

Payne Haas, $701k, 72 average.

In a position where only three players are averaging over 65, the narrative for Haas to dominate for the rest of the season to help his club get into the Finals is almost too perfect.

A great buy if named this week to backup post Origin.

Mitch Barnett, 69.5 average.

Dual position, absolute beast, just super expensive at the moment.

Contenders for the throne:

Joseph Tapine, $669k.

No byes remaining and with a 5RA of 76 we are firmly entering ‘Tapine Time’ where Ricky lets him off the leash to end the year.

AFB:

He has fallen off a little of late but still rolling a 5RA of 60.8 which, for only $562k is excellent value.

Terrell May, $685k.

He’s got some cockroach characteristics about him in that he just won’t go away. His 5RA of 80 is elite and I don’t think you can really sell him despite the appeal given his price – his upside at the position is rare.

Downgrades:

TPJ, $379k.

A player with rare upside at the position. Why the hell not.

Joe O, $394.6k.

Surely has to play 50 minutes at least in this Parramatta pack.

Nuffs:

Myles Martin, $204k.

Dual position and not gonna get a game anytime soon in Newcastle.

Villiami Fifita, $204k.

When people see that you’ve brought in Fifita they’ll be jealous.

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2RF:

Best options: Angus Crichton, David Fifita, Keaon Koloamatangi

Angus Crichton, $786k.

I’m calling him the best at the position because in the side he plays in I see him having a far greater try scoring potential than big Fifi.

As with Watson, the bye in round 23 and potential rest at some point due to Origin hurt but not owning would hurt more.

Big Dave Fifita, $743k.

Punches out 80s without really breaking a sweat. The Titans left-edge is humming too.

Keaon Koloamatangi, $716k.

I don’t think this is that controversial but I know some people will think it is.

Keaon is averaging 85 since moving to lock which is simply elite stuff. It looks like the job is his now.

Contenders for the throne:

EKat, Olu, Nikora, Yeo:

Hard to separate the pack after the three big boppers, especially when they’ve all got pretty good draws too.

Don’t sleep on Patrick Carrigan post Origin either who could go on a tear if he’s fit.

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Downgrades:

John Bateman, $481k.

I couldn’t do it, but it’s hard to argue against his work rate which sees him drop 50s for fun.

Shawn Blore, $473k.

Started the season red hot and has dropped back a little, but on draw the Storm have a fantastic run and he could be a buy if you needed to free up cash.

Nathan Brown, $432.4k.

Quietly ticking along with a nice 3RA of 56 which is mostly in base. Should he hold a starting point he’s very affordable for a guy who can average nearly 60.

Jack Howarth, $340k.

Could have locked down one of the centre spots in the Storm lineup. Not without risk, but he’s averaging 54 in three games at centre to-date which includes only one try.

Nuffs:

Jed Cartwright, $214k.

Dual position and already over in the Super League.

Mavrik Geyer, $204k.

Could be a chance at a bench or starting spot if the Panthers rest players in round 27.

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HFB:

Best options: Nathan Cleary and Jahrome Hughes

Nathan Cleary, $805k.

It would be easy to be controversial here, but with Nicho down I think there’s a clear number 1 halfback this season.

Goal kicking and with a soft draw; don’t overthink this one. You don’t need to go this week, but from next he’s a serious option.

Jahrome Hughes, $822k.

Got to be favourite for the Dally M this season. What a player.

The team has truly become his with Munster out and with a nice draw to end the year it’s hard to see him slowing down too much.

Contenders for the throne:

Sam Walker, $712k.

Has a pretty unmatched ceiling in a high-scoring outfit. Could be a famous hold for the rest of the year with their draw.

DCE, $600.3k.

Always finishes strong.

Downgrades:

Probably not the position to try this stuff but Shaun Johnson at $493k is appealing if you like risk.

Nuffs:

Don’t nuff at halfback.

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Five-Eighth:

Best options: Jayden Campbell and Matt Burton

Jayden Campbell, $743k.

What a player. A goal-kicking half in a team who knows how to score points? Yes please.

Matt Burton, $539k.

Very cheap for a player of his ability. Currently the fourth best average for the position but could be first by the end of the year if Bulldogs go on a run.

Contenders for the throne:

Cody Walker, $607k.

A rollercoaster that, personally, I don’t like to ride, but it’s hard to knock his 5RA of 71.

Jarome Luai, $806k.

You wouldn’t buy him at that price with Cleary back but his last month has been seriously impressive since taking over at halfback. It remains to be seen if he can maintain his current levels of output.

Cameron Munster, $698k.

I wouldn’t trust his dodgy groin but he has to be tempting as a Super POD when he comes back.

Dylan Brown, $599k.

Having a quiet year and still dominant. Should only get more touches of the ball with Mitchell Moses out.

Brayden Trindall, $513.7k.

A week ago he was essentially a downgrade option. As the goal kicker and chief playmaker in a high scoring side he’s a genuine option at POD level ownership.

Downgrades:

Luke Brooks, $416k.

Not delivering the world but also doesn’t cost it.

Jye Gray, $318k.

Short term option with a nice short term draw.

Daine Laurie, $500k.

Not technically a downgrade, but a Super POD at less than 1% ownership.

Pending the Dylan Edwards injury news, this is a bloke who could blow open the position if he keeps the fullback job.

Nuffs:

Don’t nuff at five-eighth

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CTW:

Best options: Young, Kiraz, Garrick, To’o

Dom Young, $743k.

The marriage of his try scoring ability and the offensive weapons around him has worked perfectly. He’s just so good and I’d be frightened not to own.

Jacob Kiraz, $714k.

Doesn’t seem to do much and still scores 60s. Throw in a try and that’s a 90. Bloke’s a beast.

Reuben Garrick, $618k.

If you don’t own, he won’t ever be this cheap again. Just do it.

Brian To’o, $866k.

Don’t think you could bye at this price and with the threat of more ball going right with Cleary back in the side, but To’o won’t let you down with his work rate.

Contenders for the throne:

Zac Lomax, Val Holmes:

All fantastic options due to their workrate and goal-kicking floor.

Joey Manu, Dane Gagai, Greg Marzhew, Jesse Ramien

High-work rate guys with good draws to end the season

Ronaldo Mulitalo, Nick Meaney, AJ Brimson

Blokes reliant on attacking stats who could be great difference makers if things go their way.

Downgrades:

Ronaldo Mulitalo, $495k.

We finally got that early season form last round. Could he maintain it?

Izack Tago, $398k.

Feels like we have been waiting for signs of life for a while. Can Cleary resurrect his relevance?

Jesse Arthars, $240k.

Look past the 3RA of 18 to his price and draw. What a brilliant way to make money and get a starter in a high-octane team.

Nuffs:

Jed Cartwright, $214k.

See above in the 2RF section.

Casey McLean, $204k.

Undoubted future star who plays this round and could again in round 27 if the Panthers rest blokes.

Bailey Hodgson, $204k CTW/FLB.

If you’re not running two gun fullbacks, Hodgson gives you flexibility to shift the likes of Garrick and Iro around.

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FLB:

Best options: James Tedesco & Kalyn Ponga

James Tedesco. 116 3RA.

Good luck if you don’t own him.

Kalyn Ponga, $786k.

He’s a far more dangerous SuperCoach player when he’s kicking goals but we all remember what he did on the run home last year. Has a nice draw from round 23 onwards.

Contenders for the throne:

Dylan Edwards, $891k. People are sleeping on Edwards but his draw for the run home is unbelievable. Let’s hope he gets that knee right soon

Tom Trbojevic, $730k.

Personally I think he’s a good option but not until about round 23.

Ryan Papenhuyzen, $652k.

Dirt cheap and has no more byes. Great draw for most of the run home too outside of games against the Chooks (R20) and Penrith (R24).

Downgrades:

Daine Laurie, $500k. I think I would only do this if we knew he had four weeks at the position. The positives are the soft draw and lack of byes. The negatives are the BE of 100, score of 9 in his rolling average, and extra trade to get him out of your side.

Jacob Gagai, $493k.

On a try scoring tear and has big cash incoming plus a soft draw.

The extra trade to get him out is a worry but he could be $650-700k in the blink of an eye making him one of the cheapies of then year.

Nuffs:

Don’t nuff here.

Hopefully this can help you with your forward planning to both grab the right players and build your bank.

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Trade Plans

All season my team value has set me apart and as it stands I’ve got a deep squad with no real weakness.

Holding the likes of Angus Crichton and Val Holmes throughout Origin means that, despite having only eight trades left, I’m ahead of the curve as far as assembling a scary ‘final team’ as well.

After the Olakau’atu suspension, and factoring in that both Robson and Holmes will suit up for the Cows on Sunday, I will have 18 active players this week providing the perfect opportunity to run a VC loop.

If we get word that the Cows players are out I will be tempted to pull the trigger on a trade but it may be more beneficial to be conservative.

Here’s my three scenarios:

No trades

Sit on my hands for one week.

This will help me next week in getting to Nathan Cleary in one trade.

It also lets me have a look at players of interest in Izack Tago, as well as getting clarity on the future position for Blaize Talagi who isn’t a hold if he’s the centre for Parramatta on-going.

Blaize to Tago/Arthars

Given the injury to Moses, Parra’s relevance is dropping by the day and cashing out of their stocks becomes a priority.

Downgrading Blaize to either Tago or Arthars frees up cash for other moves including Cleary or a future fullback upgrade. These also avoid adding any nuffs to keep my deep 24-player squad.

Robson to Watson

This is all the things you don’t want to be accused of; a luxury trade, and one that’s potentially sideways.

But as it stands, Robson has a bye in the run home which is likely to see me flip him anyway and Watson is the guy I want at low ownership with a high ceiling for the run home.

This will become clearer as the washup post Origin continues.

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NRL SuperCoach PODs and SuperPODs

PODs at less than 10% ownership

Tom Trbojevic, $730k, 6.8%.

What a beast of a player. You probably want to wait until round 23 given his bye in 22 but he could easily be in the best two fullbacks for the run home.

Brian To’o, $866k, 9.7%.

Probably too expensive but with a nice draw for the run home, he could be a bold move.

Ryan Papenhuyzen, $652k, 8.3%.

One of the highest ceilings in SuperCoach with a nice upcoming draw from round 21.

Mitch Barnett, $776k, 9.1%.

Could be the best FRF in the game for the run home.

DCE, $600k, 6%.

While everyones looking at Cleary, late season DCE is going to come home like he does every year – with a wet sail.

Connor Watson, $677k, 5.6%.

The best hooker in SuperCoach at low ownership? Feels like this is someone we should prioritise ASAP.

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Super PODs at less than 5% ownership

Dane Gagai, $663k, 1.8%.

A beast of a player with a good draw for the run home. Could be a famous move to get in Gags from round 23.

Jesse Ramien, $627k, 3%. A 3RA of 81.

His base is through the roof and at his price he’s not out of reach. Love this play from next week.

Nick Meaney, $686k, 4.6% owned.

If the Storm go well, this bloke should be a big part of it. Expensive at the moment but has a huge ceiling with his goal kicks.

Daniel Tupou, $634k, 3.2% owned.

A stud of the past whose ticking along better than you think this year with a 63 average. Again, great draw for the run home.

Sunia Turuva, $546k, 4.6% owned. A

Averaging 59 for the year. Has two tons to his name. Soft draw, Cleary back on his edge. Is it Tino time?

Connor Tracey, $588k, 1.4% owned.

A fullback at CTW is always fun and his 5RA of 64 is respectable. Might not have the ceiling of some contemporaries but you could definitely take a punt on Tracey.

Jason Saab, $545k, 3%.

Back-to-back tons for the flyer from Fairlight. With a beautiful draw for H2H finals, he could be a goer.

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Captains

Have a look at your side this week to see if you’ve got the chance to run the loop.

With most coaches pretty light on troops with the Sharks, Eels and Dragons bye, this is as good a week as any to run it.

James Tedesco is an ‘every week’ lock as skipper.

That’s true even coming up against the staunch Storm outfit. Fitting him into your plans as captain or Vice this week seems a great move.

Turbo or Garrick vs the Titans, Kiraz vs the Cows or Jayden Campbell against Manly loom as good POD routes should Teddy fail to fire as your VC.

A gamble on Cody Walker as a VC against the Tigers could also be a possibility for owners.

Good luck this week!