Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
2020 Supercoach runner-up, Timmy Williams analyses all the major team changes from the Round 24 NRL team lists.
NRLWeek two of head-to-head finals have arrived, hopefully if you’re reading along you’ve either won safe passage through to the preliminary finals, or you’re still in the running for glory.
From here on out every head-to-head fixture is do-or-die, unless your league settings kick off finals this week of course.
Hopefully you’ve saved a few trades up the sleeve to tackle the remainder of finals.
We’ve covered a large majority of all the best strategies to navigate finals in recent weeks – largely thanks to the jottings of Maxy Bryden – so I won’t repeat anything in substance.
One to touch on though that may have slipped through the cracks slightly is the opportunity to save a trade if you’re well positioned in your final.
While it’s more important to target the best match-up of the weekend for a player that may come early in the round, if you find yourself in a commanding position in your fixture with your trade targets not playing until later in the round you can always reverse it to save it for later in the finals.
An example would have been those who traded James Tedesco to Kalyn Ponga in round 23, with Newcastle in the final game and the Roosters on the bye.
One to keep up the sleeve if you’re fortunate enough for the stars to all align in this position.
For the Stallions, well we’re counting the days until the end of season with each round another large nail in the coffin.
We managed just 1,134 points to drop once again to 15k overall, it’s been an absolute bludger of a year to say the least!
Hopefully we can peg back some respectability over the final month, but geez it’s been tough going in 2024.
Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach round 24 teams analysis, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.
Embed from Getty ImagesThursday, 7:50pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Panthers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Mavrik Geyer 12. Liam Henry 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Trent Toelau 15. Matt Eisenhuth 16. Luron Patea 17. Jack Cole
Reserves: 18. Brad Schneider 19. James Fisher-Harris 20. Dylan Edwards 21. Austin Dias 22. Luke Sommerton
Analysis: Dylan Edwards has been named on the extended bench which could spell the end of Daine Laurie who is a sell at $619k if out.
Brian To’o tonned up thanks to a pair of tries against the Eels, he’s a nice price at $744k with a breakeven of 64.
The two concerns are the tough match-up with Melbourne this week where he comes up against their stronger defensive edge, and the likelihood of a resting in coming weeks.
I’d avoid Nathan Cleary as a captaincy play this week, while he is as reliable a play as any even against Melbourne, I think there are far higher upside options in round 24.
I believe Penrith will stagger restings in coming weeks, so with some luck a few stars may get them in round 25, making them great targets for the final two weeks.
Izack Tago has proven his Supercoach output is better with Nathan Cleary inside him, averaging 61.25 since Penrith’s chief playmaker returned from injury a month ago.
Unfortunately, his defence has been a rabble.
After a few strong weeks, Casey McLean came back to earth with just 21 points against the Eels.
He’s highly sold this week which is somewhat understandable, but at just $380k I think he’s a pretty decent hold ahead of games against the Raiders, Rabbitohs and Titans with two of those three in Penrith.
I wouldn’t play him this week though.
Embed from Getty ImagesStorm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero
Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Lazarus Vaalepu 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald
Reserves: 18. Kane Bradley 19. Sualauvi Faalogo 20. Tepai Moeroa 21. Dean Ieremia 22. Chris Lewis
Analysis: Despite an improved 70 points against South Sydney, albeit still somewhat underwhelming, Ryan Papenhuyzen is a sell to a gun fullback.
For those with deep squads this week it’s a genuine play to sit any Storm players outside your 17.
Eliesa Katoa may be one of those options who has been named to return from injury/rest.
Jahrome Hughes averages 87.5 without Cameron Munster, and 62.44 alongside him.
With Penrith to come, and the likelihood of a rest in round 26, he’s a tempting sell to anyone with trades available.
To anyone low on trades I’d just hold strong.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 6pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tommy Talau 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic
Bench: 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown
Reserves: 18. Tolutau Koula 19. Toafofoa Sipley 20. Corey Waddell 21. Jamie Humphreys 22. Clayton Faulalo
Analysis: With a decent run home against the Warriors, Tigers, Bulldogs and Sharks it makes the red-hot Sea Eagles a team to target.
Tom Trbojevic has three tons in four games and could add another four centuries on his run home.
He’s an obvious captaincy target this week, perhaps No.1.
Daly Cherry-Evans is chipping along nicely with a five round average of 78 points per game and tends to finish the year with a bang.
Taniela Paseka delivered for new owners including the Stallions (who I obviously didn’t play), with 72 points including a try against the Raiders.
In 45 minutes he notched 23 tackles, 10 runs and three tackle breaks which is more than adequate for a back-up FRF option.
Tolutau Koula is nearing a return from injury and could be a game day inclusion in the 17 after being named 18th man.
Embed from Getty ImagesWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker
Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Tom Ale 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Demitric Sifakula
Reserves: 18. Leka Halasima 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Luke Metcalf 22. Edward Kosi 23. Bunty Afoa
Analysis: With the round 27 bye and games against the Sea Eagles (A), Bulldogs and Sharks (A) to come I have no interest in the Warriors.
Outside of Addin Fonua-Blake and Mitchell Barnett, I’d be looking to offload any of their players.
Shaun Johnson returns from injury, with Te Maire Martin dropping out, while Adam Pompey‘s returns see Ali Leiataua drop out.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 8pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson
Bench: 14. Sitili Tupouniua 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Nat Butcher 17. Terrell May
Reserves: 18. Sandon Smith 19. Siua Wong 20. Ethan King 21. Salesi Foketi 22. Robert Toia
Analysis: Fresh from the bye, the Roosters are the No.1 team to target in my eyes with games to come against the Eels, Titans, Raiders and Rabbitohs.
These matches have James Tedesco written all over them, but as we know there’s a wealth of attacking weapons in this team.
Sam Walker becomes a genuine trade-in option for concerned Jahrome Hughes owners, especially those in head-to-finals where the Roosters playmaker has far more favourable fixtures.
Angus Crichton averages 83.5 in 80 minute games this season and is a must-have in my eyes, unlike most 2RFs he can hurt you with big tonnes.
I’m surprised that, at the time of writing, Joey Manu is only the sixth most traded-in player.
I’m licking my lips at the prospect of getting the strike-centre back into my team, which is doomed to end poorly based on our history.
I think he’s a tantalising prospect, however it is worth noting that in his past three 80 minute games he has scores of just 30, 63 and 39 which don’t scream buy me.
Dom Young has been named despite a hamstring concern in a huge boost for those who held, which is equal parts frightening for those who sold.
You could pick just about any Roosters starters with upside at this stage.
Embed from Getty ImagesEels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Jake Tago 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Wiremu Greig 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson
Bench: 14. Joey Lussick 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Kelma Tuilagi 17. Dan Keir
Reserves: 18. Ethan Sanders 19. Maika Sivo 20. Matt Doorey 21. Morgan Harper 22. Makahesi Makatoa
Analysis: Despite a somewhat rejuvenated outfit, I wouldn’t look to pick up any Eels at this stage of the season.
There’s also an opportunity to sit any of their players outside your 17 in this clash.
They do finish the season with games against the Broncos, Dragons and Tigers which are enticing.
With a three round average of 77 against none other than the Panthers, Warriors (A) and Storm, Shaun Lane has dished out what we wanted him to do at the start of the season.
For some mad reason the Stallions still own him, but didn’t play him in any of those clashes which pretty well sums up our season.
At least he’s earned a bit of cash at $548k to move onto Angus Crichton.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 3pm, Salter Oval, Bundaberg
Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann
Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Jaeman Salmon
Reserves: 19. Lipoi Hopoi 20. Chris Patolo 21. Hayze Perham 22. Drew Hutchison 23. Poasa Faamausili
Analysis: The Bulldogs have a decent run home against the Dolphins, Warriors, Sea Eagles and Cowboys.
They’ve been so highly spoken about in this article for many months that I don’t have a lot new to offer.
Jacob Kiraz remains a good buy, Matt Burton is a viable 5/8 option, Josh Curran is a FRF-2RF keeper and that’s about it.
Embed from Getty ImagesDolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich
Bench: 14. Oryn Keeley 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Ray Stone 17. Sean O’Sullivan
Reserves: 18. Trai Fuller 19. Tesi Niu 20. Anthony Milford 21. Kurt Donoghoe 22. Josh Kerr
Analysis: With games to come against the Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos and Knights I don’t have much interest in the Dolphins.
Jamayne Isaako is one of the most sold this week which I think is fine, but I do believe it’s a bit of a luxury trade at this stage.
He’s not getting a lot of clean attacking ball at the moment as the Dolphins favour their left edge, yet he still has a very respectable five round average of 59.
Flip to a gun with a softer draw if you have say three or four trades minimum, hold if you have less.
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Max Plath has been a sensation this season and was enormous for owners against the Warriors with 114 points to take his three round average to 95 points.
Initial thoughts were that I didn’t rate the move due to an abundance of attacking stats bolstering his scores in recent weeks, but the fact is he’s an 80-minute player for Wayne Bennett with enormous base.
In 12 games of 60+ minutes this season, he’s averaging 72.83 points per game.
In those games he’s averaged 54 points in base stats.
Since Supercoaches jumped on Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow three weeks ago for his upside, the Dolphins have scored 82 points.
Across those three games, The Hammer has remarkably scored just one try, had one linebreak and one linebreak assist as his only attacking stats.
In that period, he’s averaged just 45 points per game. Unlucky.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 5:30pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Sam McIntyre 11. Heilum Luki 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Jaxon Purdue 17. Griffin Neame
Reserves: 18. Tomas Chester 19. Chad Townsend 20. Jamal Shibasaki 21. Semi Valemei 22. Marly Bitungane
Analysis: While this match-up against the Raiders is excellent, it’s hard to go near the Cowboys with the bye next week into the Storm and Bulldogs.
I don’t think there’s any need to sell any players as by this stage we should have enough depth to cover them next week, but I wouldn’t rush to buy.
Head-to-head players in finals should have a plan in place to sell them next week if you’re still alive in finals.
Embed from Getty ImagesRaiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Sebastian Kris 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Ethan Strange 5. Xavier Savage 6. Adam Cook 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies
Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Emre Guler 16. Ata Mariota 17. Simi Sasagi
Reserves: 18. Albert Hopoate 19. Zac Woolford 20. Trey Mooney 21. Hohepa Puru 22. Corey Horsburgh
Analysis: Joe Tapine scored 87 points in the loss to Manly despite a sin-bin.
He rescued his score with two try-assists and two line break assists in a massive win for those who brought him in for Payne Haas.
Tom Starling will be very cheap to start next season if named as the sole hooker for Canberra as he was on the weekend.
Ethan Strange has been named at centre, with Adam Cook in the halves.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 7:35pm, Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali’i
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Sione Fainu 16. Fonua Pole 17. Alex Twal
Reserves: 18. Latu Fainu 19. Heath Mason 20. Reuben Porter 21. Junior Tupou 22. Tony Sukkar
Analysis: If Leichhardt Oval is the eighth wonder of the world, Lachlan Galvin is the ninth.
Starting the season at 18-years-old, playing 18 games, in the side on track for their third consecutive wooden spoon, averaging 63 points per game. Gun…
With a bye in round 26, I wouldn’t be investing in any Tigers, but with games around that against the Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles and Eels they do remain viable plays in 17s.
Reuben Porter drops out of the 17 and can be moved on at $436k.
Embed from Getty ImagesRabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Fletcher Myers 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray
Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Jacob Host 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Shaquai Mitchell
Reserves: 18. Dean Hawkins 19. Liam Le Blanc 20. Brock Gray 21. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 22. Tyrone Munro
Analysis: Hold and play your Rabbitohs players this week, but look to offload from next week with games against the Knights, Panthers and Roosters.
With their finals hopes buried, Keaon Koloamatangi has reduced minutes significantly in recent weeks playing just 54 and 55 minutes.
He’s done a tremendous job for owners since moving to the middle, but with minutes down and a breakeven of 119 a move to Angus Crichton or another gun looks the play.
With the soft match-up this week and potential to return to 80 minutes on the edge you could hold for one more week and have a look.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 2pm, WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Mathew Feagai 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth
Bench: 14. Toby Couchman 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Jack Bird
Reserves: 18. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 19. Lyhkan King-Togia 20. Mikaele Ravalawa 21. Michael Molo 22. Connor Muhleisen
Analysis: After a brutal string of games, the Dragons finally enter a softer run home with games against the Titans, Sharks, Eels and Raiders.
Zac Lomax remains the only relevant player, and he emphasised his outstanding year in the past three weeks with games against the Bulldogs, Panthers and Storm who rank as the first, second and fourth best defences in the NRL.
Despite this, Lomax was able to average 70 points per game despite the Dragons scoring a total of 38 points across the three games.
He’s bottomed out perfectly at $661k and could finished in style.
It’ll only help his cause on the dominant right edge of the Dragons with both Kyle Flanagan and Moses Suli likely out in coming weeks.
He scored 108 points back in round 1 against the Titans.
Embed from Getty ImagesTitans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Jaimin Jolliffe 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Klese Haas 13. Chris Randall
Bench: 14. AJ Brimson 15. Isaac Liu 16. Josiah Pahulu 17. Keenan Palasia
Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Tanah Boyd 20. Joe Stimson 21. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 22. Tony Francis
Analysis: Trying to predicted what Titans outfit will show up each week is near impossible.
Just when you thought they’d strung some consistency together they get their backsides handed to them by the Sharks.
Jayden Campbell is one of the most sold players this week with three sub-50 scores in his past four games, leaving him at $694k with a breakeven of 142.
This week’s match-up with the Dragons is great, but coming rounds against the Roosters, Knights and Panthers are brutal.
Obviously he’s not a top tier Supercoach fullback, but at 5/8 I’m still not entirely convinced he’s a sell, however I do understand it.
Those with a decent amount of trades up their sleeve can move on fairly happily, but if you’re down to one or two left it’s fairly sideways in my view to move to most 5/8 replacements.
With Brian Kelly returning, AJ Brimson drops to the bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 4:05pm, PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
Sharks:
Analysis: With a run home against the Knights, Dragons, Warriors and Sea Eagles there’s plenty of appeal in the Sharks who seemingly don’t need Nicho Hynes or Braydon Trindall!
Briton Nikora (96) and Kayal Iro (94) made recent sellers pay with big scores in the drubbing of the Titans.
Iro remarkably has had a base of 40+ in 12 of his 17 games this season, with a low of just 29.
He has just one score under 46 which was a 33 point effort in the bloodbath against Penrith in round 12.
If he can maintain this output in coming years he could be a locked in player for Supercoach sides provided of course the Sharks are playing quality footy.
Ronaldo Mulitalo has been named on the extended bench, making him a hold for anyone still hanging onto the flyer.
Braydon Trindall has also been named on the extended bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesKnights: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Samuel Stonestreet 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Blayke Brailey 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Siosifa Talakai 13. Jack Williams
Bench: 14. Jayden Berrell 15. Billy Burns 16. Royce Hunt 17. Thomas Hazelton
Reserves: 18. Niwhai Puru 19. Braden Hamlin-Uele 20. Braydon Trindall 21. Ronaldo Mulitalo 22. Tuku Hau Tapuha
Analysis: While the Sharks clash this week looms as a tougher one, the Knights do face the Rabbitohs, Titans and Dolphins on the run home.
Greg Marzhew is one of the most sold players this week which really surprises me.
His base and power stats are excellent and he could flood in the tries in the final month.
I must admit it was very concerning to see the Knights heavily favour the right edge last week against the Tigers.
The left edge of Newcastle has always been their more dominant edge, so hopefully this was more of a game plan based on the Tigers edge match-ups.
Regardless, I don’t think Marzhew is a trade out.
Kalyn Ponga delivered in style for new owners with 124 points which seemed somewhat effortless at times.
He was kept quiet for most of the last half hour or so otherwise it could have been much bigger.
With the form of the right edge, albeit against the Tigers, Dane Gagai looks a nice super POD play for the run home.
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