Round 25 NRL Team Lists: Supercoach Analysis

Three rounds of rugby league remain until a new NRL Supercoach champion is crowned.

For those in the hunt for the No.1 spot, my best advice is to do your best to enjoy the ride and understand that once those players take the field it’s entirely out of your hands.

If there’s injuries, HIAs, early benchings, restings or anything else that might derail your season, just remember it’s out of your power so try not to get too upset about it.

That’s Supercoach.

The second piece of advice is to back your gut and follow what it tells you, not the vast array of content creators (myself included) or all of your mates that tell you that you’re mad for even considering trading player A to player B.

Whilst it’s important to take the information of others on board, they’re not the one up top.

At the end of the day, you’ve gotten yourself to this point in the top echelon of coaches, and if you go against your gut and lose the race to top spot it’ll hurt for a long time.

For the Cooma Stallions, while things do remain grim we did have an improved week with 1,378 points to move back into 14k overall. Ew.

We’re closing in on top spot, with just 2,500 points left to reel in…

With three weeks to play, and plenty of Supercoaches already out of trades, I’ll be a bit briefer on the teams’ analysis to end the season.

Instead, I’ll try to focus a little more on the burning issues, which this week is almost entirely based around Nathan Cleary replacements as he was owned by virtually every Supercoach still active in the game.

Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach round 25 teams analysis, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.

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TIGERS v SEA EAGLES

Thursday 7:50pm: Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

Tigers: 1. Heath Mason 2. Solomon Alaimalo 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Junior Tupou 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali’i

Bench: 14. Latu Fainu 15. Sione Fainu 16. Fonua Pole 17. Alex Twal

Reserves: 18. Tim Johannssen 19. Tallyn Da Silva 20. Reuben Porter 21. Josh Feledy 22. Tony Sukkar

Analysis: The Tigers face the red-hot Sea Eagles this week, then have the bye next week, pass.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown

Reserves: 18. Corey Waddell 19. Toafofoa Sipley 20. Jamie Humphreys 21. Clayton Faulalo 22. Matthew Lodge

Analysis: Manly have an extremely favourable match-up this week against the Tigers, before two tough fixtures to finish against the Bulldogs and Sharks.

Tom Trbojevic could go huge here if the Tigers don’t show up, making him an obvious captaincy play once again.

Daly Cherry-Evans is currently the most popular Nathan Cleary replacement.

He boasts a five round average of 71 points per game, and had a 105 against the Dragons in the game prior.

He finished last year with scores of 71, 146 and 153 to blow open the end of the season.

Note though the two monster tonnes were against heavily depleted Bulldogs and Tigers outfits.

I like him as a trade-in, I don’t necessarily love him.

You may be banking on him a touch to really deliver against the Tigers with those two tougher match-ups lurking which will be pivotal in the battle for the NRL top four.

His last three games against the Tigers have resulted in scores of 153, 75 and 105.

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WARRIORS v BULLDOGS

Friday 6pm: Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Tom Ale 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Demitric Sifakula

Reserves: 18. Chanel Harris-Tavita 20. Leka Halasima 21. Taine Tuaupiki 22. Edward Kosi 23. Bunty Afoa

Analysis: The Warriors face the Bulldogs who boast the best defensive record in the NRL and have the bye in round 27, pass.

Wayde Egan returns at hooker.

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Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Jaeman Salmon

Reserves: 19. Jeral Skelton 20. Lipoi Hopoi 21. Eli Clark 22. Drew Hutchison 23. Max King

Analysis: While this does loom as a decent match-up on face value against the lowly ranked Warriors, I think an upset may be on the cards.

At the very least an extremely competitive Warriors outfit who farewells club legend Shaun Johnson for his final home game.

It’ll be hard not to set-and-forget Jacob Kiraz next year on his heroics this season, most recently notching a pair of tries for 121 points to take his season average to 76.

Matt Burton looms as a logical Cleary replacement with dual 5/8-HFB positioning.

Disregarding his lone game at centre in round 16 against the Roosters, he’s scored under 52 just once since round 4 which was a 39 against the Eels.

Whilst his ceiling may not appear as high as other HFB options, it’s evident to the eye the Bulldogs attack grows more potent each week, backed up by the fact they’ve amassed 120 points across their past four games.

I prefer others in the position, but there’s an easy case to make for the goal-kicking playmaker with a decent run home.

Josh Curran has been named despite a shoulder concern.

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BRONCOS v EELS

Friday 8pm: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Joshua Rogers 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Blake Mozer 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Josiah Karapani 17. Martin Taupau

Reserves: 18. Benjamin Te Kura 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Jaiyden Hunt 21. Cory Paix 22. Corey Oates

Analysis: Brisbane have three games to finish the season against the Eels, Dolphins and Storm which is a decent draw barring round 27.

With Reece Walsh and Payne Haas out and an extremely volatile form of late, I find it very hard to go near their Supercoach contingent.

Maxy Bryden made a bold call that Kotoni Staggs may be a super POD for the final stages of the season following his blistering 129 against the Cowboys, but I couldn’t touch him.

In 19 games that was his only tonne this season, he’s also only eclipsed 64 points three times all year with additional scores of 89 and 84 for a season average of 53.

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Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Shaun Lane 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Joe Ofahengaue

Bench: 14. Joey Lussick 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Luca Moretti 17. Dan Keir

Reserves: 18. Jake Tago 19. Matt Doorey 20. Ethan Sanders 21. Morgan Harper 22. Ofahiki Ogden

Analysis: While I won’t be going near any Eels buys for the run home, they do have an excellent draw against the Broncos, Dragons and Tigers.

I’m not expecting a lot from them to finish the season, however they had been playing some quality footy prior to the heavy loss to the Roosters.

Dylan Brown becomes a handy own for the final stretch, and he comes up against the weaker left edge of the Broncos that concede 48% of their total tries compared to 38% on the right edge.

He knocked out a season high 96 points against Brisbane in round 10.

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RAIDERS v PANTHERS

Saturday, 3pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Kaeo Weekes 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Emre Guler 16. Ata Mariota 17. Simi Sasagi

Reserves: 18. Adam Cook 19. Zac Woolford 20. Trey Mooney 21. Jed Stuart 22. Corey Horsburgh

Analysis: With games to come against the Panthers, Roosters and Dragons, the Raiders are a hard pass having conceded 40+ points in consecutive weeks.

Ethan Strange drops out of the team, Jordan Rapana returns at fullback with Kaeo Weekes shifting to five-eighth.

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Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Daine Laurie 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Brad Schneider 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Luke Sommerton 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Mavrik Geyer 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Jack Cole

Reserves: 18. Matt Eisenhuth 19. Paul Alamoti 20. Luke Garner 21. Luron Patea 22. Sunia Turuva

Analysis: Nathan Cleary is unlikely to feature again in the regular season which is a huge blow for essentially every active Supercoach player.

The good news, he’s $894k so you can move anywhere with him and likely help fund any final trades with the remaining cash.

The bad news, plenty of Supercoaches are out of trades and will have to watch him ride the pine while hoping their starting halfback stays fit.

It makes Penrith a very intriguing outfit and changes their outlook entirely.

The concern is that they’re extremely likely to rest their stars at some stage which makes it tricky to invest in them.

For argument’s sake, let’s just say you’re willing to tackle the resting risk and invest anyway.

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Jarome Luai becomes a very viable super POD option at 3.5% ownership among top-ranked coaches with dual 5/8-HFB positioning at $649k.

He now takes control of the side where he has excelled this season without his partner in crime.

Whilst partnered by Jack Cole, who plays like Luai, a foil to his halfback in a ball-running five-eighth role, he has a five game sample size where Luai averaged 98 points.

When partnered with Brad Schneider who has been named who is more of an organising halfback who played the Cleary role, Luai scored poorly.

Dylan Edwards is the other who has thrived without Cleary this season and is owned by next to nobody, the problem will be that with everyone running a combination of Tom Trbojevic, James Tedesco and Kalyn Ponga you couldn’t possibly make the trade, could you?

Edwards without Cleary this season has averaged a monstrous 99.25 points! Noting also that he will take over the goal-kicking duties.

Having recently returned from injury he’s also less likely than other to need a rest.

Anyone tempted?

Casey McLean bounced back from a down week with 87 points against Melbourne and is a very viable play in 17s this week, especially with Cleary out which should only benefit the left edge run by Luai.

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STORM v DOLPHINS

Saturday 5:30pm: AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Tyran Wishart 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Sualauvi Faalogo 15. Lazarus Vaalepu 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves: 18. Marion Seve 19. Kane Bradley 20. Dean Ieremia 21. Chris Lewis 22. Christian Welch

Analysis: The Storm have a nice run home with games against the Dolphins, Cowboys and Broncos, with the latter two in Queensland.

While it’s only strong rumours at this stage, I’m reluctant to invest in them based on the reports the Storm will rest players for the trip to Townsville next week.

Jahrome Hughes looks an obvious Cleary replacement if you’re not fazed by resting risks.

Adding onto the resting risk is the reduction in his scoring since Cameron Munster returned where he has averaged just 64 points in four games.

While his 64 against the Panthers was acceptable, the other three were against the Rabbitohs, Dragons and Eels.

Regardless, he’s still a great pick up and could finish with a three game average in excess of 80 points or more, but the threat of a rest has me willing to steer clear.

He’s also sitting at 45% ownership among top ranked teams, so I’m happy to look elsewhere.

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Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich

Bench: 14. Oryn Keeley 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Sean O’Sullivan

Reserves: 18. Mason Teague 19. Tesi Niu 20. Trai Fuller 21. Kurt Donoghoe 22. Josh Kerr

Analysis: With the clash against the Storm in Melbourne this week and finals hopes rapidly fading I’m willing to look past the Dolphins contingent as buys.

If they can jag a win or results fall their way this week and the season remains alive we can reassess for upcoming games against the Broncos and Knights to finish.

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RABBITOHS v KNIGHTS 

Saturday, 7:35pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Fletcher Myers 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Jacob Host 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Shaquai Mitchell

Reserves: 18. Siliva Havili 19. Liam Le Blanc 20. Michael Chee Kam 21. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 22. Tyrone Munro

Analysis: With games against the Knights, Panthers and Storm to come you couldn’t go near any Rabbitohs players this week.

Cameron Murray was gargantuan against the Tigers with 98 points in 80 minutes, with 78 in base stats.

Had that final pass on the buzzer not have been called back it’d have been a 118.

He’s played four games in a row with maximum minutes, but surely with a few potential heavier defeats looming he gets an early shower on the run home?

Give him a rest and don’t run him into the ground for nothing!

I like the bloke more than his own mother, but I couldn’t buy him due to the risk of fewer minutes.

Keaon Koloamatangi was set for greater rests while still in the middle, but since moving back to the edge where he scored 104 in 80 minutes he may just hold onto the big game time which makes him a hold.

Cody Walker is out this week due to a head knock and will be a very difficult to play in 17s for the final two rounds, owners can look to sell the playmaker this week.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Dylan Lucas 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Will Pryce 15. Mathew Croker 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones

Reserves: 18. Thomas Cant 19. Sebastian Su’a 20. Jackson Hastings 21. Kyle McCarthy 22. David Armstrong

Analysis: Could the Kalyn Ponga show be ready to begin?

I mean he did put 124 on the Tigers a fortnight ago so it’s probably fair to say it’s already begun.

Three games to end the season against the Rabbitohs, Titans and Dolphins, with the latter two in Newcastle, are mouthwatering for KP.

He’s a POD skipper option also as most will likely flock to Tom Trbojevic or James Tedesco.

Greg Marzhew somewhat hurt those who sold last week with 78 points, but most pleasing to those who held was the clinical left edge movement that saw Ponga hit his main winger on the chest to score.

It was the sight of 2023 which has somewhat faded since Ponga’s recent return, hopefully there’s plenty more of it to come.

He was the third most sold player last week, I genuinely think he’s a good buy this week.

Jayden Brailey has fortunately made a fist of the 80 minute hooking role in recent weeks, scoring 68 in 85 minutes with 58 in base against the Sharks.

As someone running a Robson-Brailey hooking combo and needing cover this week, I’ll consider it a huge win that he’s starting!

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TITANS v ROOSTERS

Sunday, 2pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall

Bench: 14. AJ Brimson 15. Isaac Liu 16. Erin Clark 17. Klese Haas

Reserves: 18. Tanah Boyd 19. Keenan Palasia 20. Joe Stimson 21. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 22. Tony Francis

Analysis: With their season over, the towel essentially thrown in, games to come against the Roosters, Knights and Panthers, the Titans are an easy avoid.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Nat Butcher

Bench: 14. Sandon Smith 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Sitili Tupouniua 17. Terrell May

Reserves: 18. Michael Jennings 19. Naufahu Whyte 20. Siua Wong 21. Zach Dockar-Clay 22. Robert Toia

Analysis: With games to come against the Titans, Raiders and Rabbitohs and having recently had the bye to rest up players, the Roosters could be set to finish in rampant fashion.

This leads me to my number one Cleary replacement, Sam Walker.

As an ace goal-kicker with tonnes of attacking upside I really do feel he’s the obvious option.

The only thing working against him is that the Roosters have so many attacking weapons that can steal points off him, as we saw last week, while several other options are more dominant playmakers in their team.

However, this isn’t to say he isn’t a dominant playmaker at the Roosters in his own right, and I also feel that no club will score more points across the final three rounds than the Roosters.

Prior to his underwhelming 52 against the Eels where the attack eluded him, he knocked out consecutive tonnes.

He’s already had five tonnes this season, and while his floor is certainly lower than other halves in the game, I don’t believe it is against the opposition to come.

He scored 100 against the Raiders earlier this year, and 56 against the Rabbitohs but that was in just 47 minutes.

Dom Young gave sellers a reminder they’ll likely never forget with 128 against the Eels.

Owned by 64% of top ranked coaches, with his upside he could provide some huge swings in the final three weeks.

I’ve written at nauseam about Tedesco, Manu, Crichton and the rest, essentially you can cash in on half this Roosters outfit.

Connor Watson is unavailable due to a head knock in a huge blow for owners. 

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DRAGONS v SHARKS

Sunday, 4:05pm, WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Mathew Feagai 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Jack Bird 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth

Bench: 14. Toby Couchman 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

Reserves: 18. Lyhkan King-Togia 19. Mikaele Ravalawa 20. Michael Molo 21. Jesse Marschke 22. Connor Muhleisen

Analysis: While the local derby against the Sharks who have conceded just 24 points in their last three games will be tricky, the Dragons end their season against the Eels and Raiders.

Rinse and repeat on Zac Lomax who remains a great buy.

While it’s unlikely anyone needs a hooker this week, barring perhaps those running a Watson-Robson combo, Jacob Liddle has flown under the radar for a long time.

Since taking on the 80-minute hooking duties in round 10, Liddle has averaged 71.3 points in his past 12 games.

He has a five round average of 73 points without scoring a try, and having just two try-assists.

Congratulations to the very few who jumped on, Nick Moon (weekly wrap columnist)…

If you’re after a genuine flyer replacement for Cleary, Ben Hunt may be your man.

The Dragons are playing for a top eight spot, he’s now partnered by Jack Bird in the halves so it’s all Hunt’s show to run, and he’s owned by just 0.3% of Supercoaches.

He’s put together a tidy season with a 63 point average, but he’s a bit of a rollercoaster and always has been.

He has high scores of 128 and 118 to his name this season, and also four scores of sub 35.

To end last season he scored 91, 29 and 62.

I don’t recommend it, but I see merit in him as a flyer after scoring 80 in his first game without Flanagan.

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Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Samuel Stonestreet 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Braden Hamlin-Uele 17. Thomas Hazelton

Reserves: 18. Mawene Hiroti 19. Billy Burns 20. Tuku Hau Tapuha 21. Chris Veaila 22. Niwhai Puru

Analysis: The Sharks have a fairly nice run home against the Dragons, Warriors and Sea Eagles.

Halves aside, their line-up generally has very little movement hence their Supercoach credentials rarely change.

With the draw, Ronaldo Mulitalo and Jesse Ramien both appeal as relatively high-upside CTW picks.

If you’re feeling game, could you wait a week to replace Cleary with the returning Nicho Hynes? It’d be a huge play on a man with one of the largest ceilings in Supercoach.

Braydon Trindall, Kayal Iro, Tom Hazleton and Teig Wilton return, Siosifa Talakai and Sione Katoa are out.