Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Tim Williams deep dives into the stats to preview the Brisbane Heat's Supercoach Big Bash credentials heading into the new season.
BBLAfter years of struggles, the defending champions Brisbane have become a powerhouse of the Big Bash over the past two seasons.
They claimed the crown in last year’s campaign, after finishing runner up to Perth in BBL12.
They enter their title defence with an extremely settled roster under new coach Johan Botha, with English wicket-keeper Tom Alsop their main recruit on the international front in place of Sam Billings.
Fellow countryman and BBL cult hero Tall Paul Walter is back on deck for another stint.
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Embed from Getty ImagesThe Heat don’t have a double until round three, however they don’t have a bye this season.
Priced largely at their peaks from their success last season, they’ll likely be worth waiting on to begin the Supercoach season.
They also play in the fourth game of the opening rounds, so they won’t be particularly useful for looping purposes.
However, they’ll be hot property from very early on if they can replicate their form of BBL13.
Embed from Getty ImagesXavier Bartlett $202,300
Bartlett topped the Big Bash for wickets last season with 20 scalps to his name in 11 games, with an economy of 7.63.
While he’s price is based on a hefty amount of wickets, he added just 10 runs for the tournament.
While you’re not buying Bartlett and banking on Supercoach points with the bat, we know he’s more than capable of some late order hitting.
In three recent T20s against England, he had quality figures of 1/26, 1/20 and 2/23 opening the bowling for Australia.
In this year’s T20 Vitality Blast in England, Bartlett took nine wickets in eight games with an economy of 9.01, while also contributing 6*, 5*, 12* and 3* all unbeaten in his last four knocks.
He’ll be hot property for the round 3 double, hopefully at a discounted rate.
I will say though that if Spencer Johnson is $100k cheaper by round 3 I’ll likely take the cheaper route.
Verdict: Wait, buy in round 3
Embed from Getty ImagesPaul Walter $187,200
Tall Paul Walter was a revelation last season, averaging 63.4 Supercoach points with one of the best roles in the game.
Walter is likely to bat seven and will often bowl at the death for the Heat.
He took 17 wickets in 11 games last season, with an economy of 8.55.
He also contributed with the bat, scoring 99 runs at a strike-rate of 125.31.
In this year’s Vitality Blast, he took an okay 17 wickets in 13 games.
He also notched 207 runs with the bat at a strike-rate of 141.78.
With the role he’ll be a near must for the round 3 double, including the all-important dual position status.
Verdict: Wait, buy in round 3
Michael Neser $175,400
Neser is a regular Supercoach asset of season’s past, with averages of 59.4 and 62.6 in recent years.
However, he’s always been incredibly hard to catch.
A strike wicket-taker with late order batting ability, he can have a dream Supercoach role.
But he’s in and out of the team often due to sitting on the edge of the Australian squad.
There were stages last season where he wasn’t bowling his full allotment of overs which proved very frustrating for owners.
In this year’s Vitality Blast in the UK he took 11 wickets in seven games with an economy of 8.85.
He’ll be a huge watch on role in the first few games ahead of a potential round 3 pick-up provided he’s not with the Australian squad.
We know he has the ability to be a Supercoach stud, we just need to see a few factors align before purchasing.
Verdict: Avoid, big watch
Embed from Getty ImagesSpencer Johnson $121,800
Johnson ignited last season with 19 wickets in 11 games, and it felt like it could have been plenty more despite finishing second overall on the wicket-taker tally.
He did so with an excellent economy of 7.05 too.
You may be reading this wondering how he took so many wickets to average just 41.3 in Supercoach?
Well, he dominated the finals…
In three finals fixtures for the Heat Johnson took nine wickets, in contrast to just 10 in eight games during the regular season.
Verdict: Wait, possible buy in round 3
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This gives me hope that having thrived on the big stage, perhaps it can translate to the regular season much easier in BBL14, for the sake fo Supercoach of course…
For a player of his ability he is well priced, however his recent form hasn’t been overly appealing.
In England’s The Hundred competition this year he played six games, taking just two wickets in the process.
He then went wicketless again in his most recent Marsh Cup fixture in Brisbane (at the time of writing).
He’ll be a huge watch early, but I’m not convinced at this stage when the likes of Walter, Bartlett and potentially Neser are available for the double among the Heat bowling ranks.
Nathan McSweeney $93,500
With little roster movement and a title winning campaign, there’s unlikely to be much in the way of cheapies for the Heat.
Nathan McSweeney does fit the bill at under $100k, albeit an expensive cheapie at best.
He managed an okay return of 222 runs from nine games last season, striking at just 105.21.
His recent form is strong, belting 137 off 131 for South Australia in the 50 over Marsh Cup in what has been his only recent white ball outing.
In his 18 career T20s to date he strikes at just 112.92 which makes it tough to accrue vital strike-rate bonuses in Supercoach.
A watch, but a no from me early on, while Australian selection is looking more and more likely to impact his availability.
If the explosive Max Bryant wins the opener’s spot vacated by Josh Brown and shows some form leading into the tournament, he could be a sneaky borderline cheapie at $102k, granted with plenty of risk.
Verdict: Avoid
Brisbane Heat – Predicted Round 1 team and analysis via Max Bryden
Colin Munro // BAT // SC BBL13 Ave: 44.1 // $130,400
Max Bryant // BAT // SC BBL13 Ave: 49.5 // $102,300
Nathan McSweeney // BAT // SC BBL13 Ave: 31.5 // $93,500
Matt Renshaw // BAT // SC BBL13 Ave: 23.3 // $68,800
Tom Alsop // WKP-BAT // SC BBL13 Ave: – // $117,500
Paul Walter // BAT-BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 63.4 // $187,200
Michael Neser // BAT-BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 59.4 // $175,400
Xavier Bartlett // BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 68.5 // $202,300
Matthew Kuhnemann // BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 46.6 // $137,700
Mitch Swepson // BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 37.3 // $110,000
Spencer Johnson // BWL // SC BBL13 Ave: 41.3 // $121,800
Changes since last season:
Last year’s champions have a relatively settled lineup, albeit new coach Johan Botha could have some new ideas on how they want to go about it.
The Heat’s title was won off the back of their impeccable six-string bowling attack and the whole cast should be available again this summer to carry on business per usual.
It’s really only the batters where we expect some changes, albeit minimal.
In the search for an opener, the Heat could turn back the clock and have tyro Max Bryant return to the top.
He’s transformed himself into a dependable finisher, but that’s a role they’ve strangely got in abundance and have drafted for with English-keeper Tom Alsop likely to take the number 5 role.
Pending fitness, another title won’t be out of the question for this squad.
Relevant Supercoach player snapshot:
Spencer Johnson is the best bowler in the Big Bash, yet doesn’t always take big bags of wickets. Could this be his year?
Max Bryant if opening becomes an interesting prospect to monitor, albeit high risk.
Tall Paul Walter could again have a starring role as a death bowler and number 6 batsman.
Michael Neser will always be popular albeit he has handed over some responsibility for death bowling to Xavier Bartlett.
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