Spy Talk | Low Breakeven Players for NRL Supercoach Round 4

G’Day Troops,

After the anguish of watching my recently traded out centre Reuben Garrick somehow score 4 tries on Sunday night, I’m glad we are close to more footy so I can start my revenge tour!

I’m even pretty sure the missed call I had Sunday night at 1am wasn’t overseas spam but likely Reuben just calling to stick the knife in even further.

Well played mate, well played!

With that being said I did manage to bring in Haas, Arthars & Starling which should net me $600k over 2 weeks and couldn’t have happened without dropping Garrick or Tommy Turbo.

It’s good to remember not everything happens in isolation and I’m hoping that triple trade will now allow me to target guns most of the next few weeks and make up those points while others search for money makers.

Oh and Tommy owes me a dead set banger on Sunday!

So what are the plans and what are the big issues facing us coaches this weekend?

The Low Break Even Guys

There are a couple of standout targets this week who have low break evens but it will be tricky to decide who is the right fit and whether or not they are worthy of dropping someone from your team. I will list a couple of the players of interest and give a short insight into why I think they may or may not make a good trade in.

Ryan Papenhuyzen

Lil Papi was my guy until about an hour ago when he confirmed on his podcast that he is indeed carrying a minor ankle injury and whilst he should be sweet for Saturdays game he is likely to hand the kicking duties to Wishart.

This lack of kicking and if it was to stay that way would cost him approximately 15PPG and take away the shine from what looked like a mega trade in.

I still think he is a very solid option but this comes with more risk now. It could also be very very wet on Saturday in Sydney which doesn’t help.

Clint Gutherson

This takes us to the other talked about option in Gutho.

With an even lower break even (around -50) he is sure to make cash and has two enticing matchups after Melbourne in the Eels & Titans making him hard to pass up as a 3 week bridge to someone like Latrell when he hopefully peaks around $820-850k.

The rain forecast and Melbourne don’t make me feel as good about this but it may not affect him and a score of 60 odd would do the job heading into the next 2 weeks.

I’m pretty tempted following the Papi news.

Christian Tuipolotu

I have wanted a piece of the Dragons left wing ever since the Charity Shield when Finau scored 4 tries in the first 25 or so minutes.

Christian then took the spot and has delivered in spades over the first 2 matches.

With a solid work rate and playing outside of Gutherson & Holmes yes please.

He looks like my preferred trade in option this week to lock him in pre $80k+ rise and have him ready for attack mode next week and onwards.

Possible keeper.

For what it’s worth I think Payne Haas is a must and you need to get him in now and for those who don’t own Garrick I think you can watch this week, hope Turbo does all the damage then reassess Garrick after his tough run of Melbourne, Cronulla, St George (bit of a bogie team), Penrith, Bye, Cronulla.

That’s as hard as it comes so I’m hopeful the decision to trade him out doesn’t look as bad comes round 11.

Also means decision to be made around Turbo soon pending his health and explosiveness.

Do I trade a gun on a bye / injured and get him back?

For me, I am happy to trade someone like Ponga or Cleary if it is the only way to facilitate critical trades during the early part of the season where setting our teams up and getting to guns asap is key.

However, I generally have 2 caveats. 1 is don’t trade 2 keepers who you would like back, I think 1 is enough.

Also if you are doing it try and do it with the aim of then getting the keeper (say Cleary) back via a cash cow who has maxed out in price.

For a real life example I am doing this week:

1. Marzhew to Tuipulotu
2. Arthars (in a couple of weeks) back to Marzhew 

This is only using 1 additional trade then If I choose to keep Marzhew through the bye as I will be planning to trade Arthars to someone anyway and this allows me to keep the cash flow and point scoring going by selling then buying Greg back.

If I had chosen to do it this way however I am not as keen:

1. Marzhew to Tuipulotu
2. Tuipulotu to Marzhew 

This would still be 2 trades used to make some cash but would mean in doing so you are back to where you began with no change to your original team, whereas option A nets you cash plus Marzhew and Tuipulotu in your centres.

You can swap in another example here to clarify this logic. 

1. Cleary to Hynes
2. Metcalf/Sandon Smith to Cleary

Again 2 trades used and 2 keepers in your side once completed (Hynes and Cleary).

1. Cleary to Reynolds
2. Reynolds to Cleary

2 trades used and only Cleary in your side = not worth it in my opinion as you have used 2 trades just for some cash and 1 week of points!

Goals for this week

I think you need to decide if you are in need of more cash injections via cheapies or if it is time to start stacking with guns.

The middle ground here and my preferred option is to pick up some potential underpriced guns who will both make cash and score you the points that a cheapie may not as this appears the week for it.

This is where guys like Tuipolotu, Gutherson, Papenhuyzen & Tino Fa’asuamaleaui come in as they are potential keepers but worst case guys who should make you cash to then trade directly to a keeper.

My Trades:

Prior to the Papi news, I was all in on my boy but now my trades are as per the below.

I may reassess on Gutherson but I’m pretty set.

VC – Haas

C – Trbojevic

Good luck legends!

Spy