The Final Word | Round 11 NRL Supercoach Trades & Captains

Round 11 means we are one week away from the first Major bye, and nearly at the halfway point of the SuperCoach season if your focus is on Head to Head – gee it’s flying by.

And it’s a super interesting time of the year as we begin to count our bye numbers and try to project who is making the Origin squads.

The fun shift I see at this time of the season is also away from “cheapies” and towards “downgrades” aka those players who we think can punch above their weight and help us free up cash to get guns.

Last week Timmy and the crew identified a few in Hamish Stewart, Jazz Tevaga, Luke Garner and co who all did ok. And a week later you can throw guys like Jacob Saifiti and even Brendan Piakura into the mix as well.

There’s a long list of pros and cons to the trade ins, not to mention the considerations around the trade outs as well. But the most important factor this year is the bye coverage.

The First Major and Mini Bye

It feels like the byes are going to be manageable this year. Firstly because we seem to have a ton of SuperCoach relevant players who won’t make Origin squads and secondly because those who do play Origin are playing in sides that will need them to backup.

Guys like Haas and Cleary are sitting in the Bottom 8 as it stands and so the Mini byes will feature them unless there’s genuine injury concerns.

It’s a good practice however to count your numbers for the Major and Mini bye rounds and shape your trades towards these if you need.

If I was targeting certain clubs this week it would be the Canberra Raiders, Sydney Roosters (yes, despite the Bulldogs matchup), Newcastle Knights and Manly. The non-origin players from these clubs play rounds 11-13 and have good matchups in that time.

If you’re not sure on which bye round guys to bring in, it’s a great week to sit on your hands and save trades too.

Making cash in different ways

It’s great having big guns in your side over the Major byes. We always know guys like Scott Drinkwater, Joseph Tapine and Jahrome Hughes are specials over the period. 

Making money is still important during this time so finding undervalued guys to let you upgrade to these premiums is a big part of the challenge.

There’s a number of these players emerging through which has helped. Guys like Zac Hosking, Euan Aitken, Briton Nikora will all give good coverage and can score well. Moving on the likes of Nathan Cleary, Greg Marzhew or Corey Horsburgh (if selected for Origin) and making some cash on those trades sits very well with me.

And you’ll need to build your bank to plot a path towards the likes of Scott Drinkwater and James Tedesco next week and beyond given their form and bye coverage.

A good rule to follow if chasing guys for the byes is to ask yourself how comfortable you’d be if they were in your side for the rest of the year. Because if they’re not feeling like a ‘keeper’ then it’s maybe not right.

Trade Plans

Greg Marzhew -> Lyhkan King-Togia
Kalyn Ponga -> Scott Drinkwater

My team value is $16m which is unreal by this time of the season. The depth is looking ok as well but the injury to Greg Marzhew left me thin in this position, but I’m going to wait a week on this.

Not owning Scott Drinkwater for the past three weeks has hurt, especially last week where – as a James Tedesco owner on the bye – I lost 1k ranks. I have been considering my cash generation options with a view towards getting in Drinky for Round 13 but with his price continuing to sky rocket and his form I am going early.

The plan had been to downgrade Adam Doueihi to Lyhkan King-Togia, but it leaves me short so Greg goes first and Adam will follow next week.

I am upgrading Kalyn Ponga to Drinky and I’m confident in doing so. A big factor in the Knights poor form was the injuries to their middles. Ponga has had six scores under 50 in his last seven rounds and without Leo Thompson (concussion) and Greg Marzhew this round, I don’t see the Knights getting into the kind of positions on the field that KP will be able to attack from.

My other alternative was to hold KP, trade Doueihi to LKT and downgrade Nathan Cleary to Jahrome Hughes. I love the Cleary to Hughes move especially for the $130k it nets – plus the Storm’s amazing draw over the Origin period where I expect Hughes to average close to 80. But Drinky is calling my name.

I’ve taken some gambles buying Haumole Olakau’atu recently and bringing in Tedesco a few weeks ago so I’m hopeful my Round 12 numbers are solid. I wouldn’t normally prioritise buying two guys who don’t play next week for the balance of the side I’m happy with the moves.

NRL SuperCoach PODs and SuperPODs

Figures drawn from the Top 10% of coaches

Pods at less than 10% ownership

• Mark Nawaqanitawase, $609,400, 6.4%

Plays all the major and mini byes. Pumping out keeper level numbers and still affordable.

• Viliame Kikau, $573,200, 7.8%

We know what we get from Kiks by now in his career, and the Bulldogs aren’t afraid to use him which is seeing more good days than bad ones.

• Connor Tracey, $617,800, 9.7%

Timmy already spilled the beans on this one on Beers and Breakevens. And I like the move.

Buying a house? Wanting to save on your mortgage? Need a quick loan? Refinancing? Contact Mortgage Choice SCW

Super PODs at less than 5% ownership

• Euan Aitken, $511,500, 0.1%

Will be one of the most purchased in Round 13. Having won a spot on the edge at Souths he should bang an easy 60 average and earns the dual position next week too.

• Keaon Koloamatangi, $568,500, 2.5%

His move to prop unlocks more work rate which is what we want from the wrecking ball. Doesn’t play 12 so I’d wait but line up a move to him ready for Round 13 if he misses Origin selection.

• Zac Lomax, $724,600, 0.4%

Expensive but the narrative is building that he misses Origin selection. If that’s the case he will be highly motivated. Has a tough draw but is a finishing piece at CTW that no one owns.

• Josh Addo-Carr, $668,100, 0.5%

Spoke about him on the podcast last week and he duly delivered a score of 80 with no try. The Foxx is in great real estate on the left wing at Parra and is averaging close to 90 with Moses in the side.

• Luciano Leilua, $383,700, 0.0%

More one for the black book. The Dragons still haven;t sorted out their forward rotation but in big minutes we know Luch can score at an elite level. He played 80 last round and scored a 69 (nice).

• Jack de Belin, $480,800, 0.0%

Will benefit from the injury to Toby Couchman. Doesn’t play Round 12 but has the game to make a quick $100k and be super playable in rounds 11, 13 and 14 and can be carried through the byes. Risky but he’s a SuperCoach gun of the past.

• Tyson Frizell, $444,600, 0.0%

His role has changed week to week, but Frizz gets something next round which he’s never held before which is DPP. That is courtesy of three games at prop to start the year covering for injured teammates. When everyone is healthy he plays at lock and can easily push a 60 average with his ability. One to monitor.

• Brian Kelly, $438,900, 0.0%

I will never apologise for my Brian Kelly love. He’s been one of the best base and power CTWs of the last five years and randomly has fallen off a cliff this season hence his cheap price. Last week he was back basing 40 and for that price he’s a good downgrade POD.

• Victor Radley, $514,400, 0.0%

Cheese’s move to Souths locks in Radley as the starting 13. He averaged 62 at lock last year compared to just 50 on an edge and has had an interrupted start to the year. He will shift to an edge in the Major bye weeks to spot Angus Crichton but long term he’s undervalued for what we know he’s capable of.

• Jayden Su’A, $564,200, 0.0%

Touched a 70 average last season. Again for what he’s capable of he’s underpriced. His scoring has been up and down but the Dragons have good bye coverage and a soft draw after the Round 12 bye. If he misses Queensland selection, one to monitor for Round 13.

Captains

Not a great week for skippers this week, and the rain in Sydney (20-40mm projected on Sunday) makes it even harder.

In weeks like this, forwards come to the forefront and for new Joseph Tapine owners I think it’s a great week to look at him up against the Titans whose middles haven’t been great. Terrel May also looks like a good shout in the final game, albeit he could be playing in a monsoon.

For a VC, Fletcher Sharpe or Kalyn Ponga look to have a decent matchup on paper against the Eels whose edges aren’t great, but the Knights recent form is concerning.

Which brings me to the most obvious option which is Scott Drinkwater. Not only is Drinky playing lights out, he’s at home against a Manly side who cannot seem to find an identity at the moment.

My team setup allows me to VC Drinky into a C on May via Cleary and drop out Dylan Egan who only played 50 minutes on the weekend so I’m leaning that way. But VC or C, Drinky is in the mix for me.

Do you ever feel uneasy with how much you’re gambling with? You’re not alone, sport fans love a punt, but sometimes it can get a bit out of control. There’s help available with Gareth Wyatt and the team at CECAL. Contact here