Spy Talk | Bye Round Strategy, NRL Supercoach Trade & POD Plans

Round 12 is here.

The first major bye week of the NRL season.

This means one thing and one thing only for overall players – you need to do a squad review and see how you are placed for the upcoming 7 or so weeks. 

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NRL Supercoach Round 12 Strategy

Head 2 Head Players

You can ignore this if you are solely focusing on Head 2 Head as tactics vary. 

Some leagues won’t play these big bye weeks, so you can ignore or make a trade for money purposes.

In a H2H league that does play the byes, you need to first determine where you are on the ladder.

If you are up top and flying, perhaps you can cruise a little more and even ‘throw’ a week, making 0 trades and saving them for finals time!

Or simply make one or two trades in the coming week to get the wins without ravaging your side. 

Conversely, if you are desperate for wins, then check out who you are playing against and how many players they are likely to have this week and do everything you can to have more players and get the win.

You might get lucky and your opponent is short-handed or you might need to go hard.

Either way, bring in players who also play the other key buy weeks so you are set up to try and charge back into contention over the next 7 weeks or so.

There are specific bye articles on the website for reference to find out which teams to target.

Be aware that if you have 6 players and your opponent has 13, then don’t even bother wasting trades as you can’t really win!

On the other hand, if you have 8 more players, then you don’t need to do anything, just keep an eye on things over the weekend.

Overall Players

For overall, my only advice is to not only see how you are placed this week but also have a look at rounds 13, 15, 16, 18 and 19.

These could all be trickier than they look, especially the rounds directly after Origin, as players may not back up.

For clarity, the major bye rounds are 12, 15 & 18. The mini rounds after Origin are 13, 16 & 19.

What I will do today is write down my numbers for each bye round as they stand and look at how they impact each of those rounds.

Aiming for 13 each of the major bye rounds and a minimum of 18 in the others is my guide.

14 for the major byes is a handy bonus to offset a low score, whilst 11-12 is ok if required.

Let me specifically run through my numbers post-trades and show you how certain players can have different impacts.

This will also lead to a good discussion around Zac Hosking and James Tedesco.

NRL Supercoach Round 12 Trade Plans

• Kiraz > Iro
• Egan > Hopoi
• Ponga > Tedesco

Side note – For the time poor, it is probably best to make trades first and then assess numbers. You will find it is easier to then swap someone in or out if required. See below.

This is how my side is lining up post trades and by using the little button below or simply counting by using the draw, I have come up with this as things stand for the Origin period (don’t forget to exclude Origin players when checking)

Round 12 
15 players out of 13 who count. This gives me 2 scores that can drop out.

Round 13
19 players out of a required 17 scorers. Cutting it a little fine, but I can still trade next week.

Round 15
11 estimated players out of 13 required. 2 more required.

Round 16
18 players estimated. Cutting it fine. Will likely sell Holmes for round 15, who also misses round 16.

Round 18
10 players at the moment out of 13 required. Time to work this out post round 15.

Round 19
19 players 

Some key points out of this and with reference back to my trades.

Lipoi Hopoi could be a sneaky downgrade option who can score some points in rounds 12, and maybe 15 & 18.

The issue is that he could drop out if guys return, and he doesn’t cover a couple of the mini byes.

Do I take the punt as he will free up money for required upgrades even if he doesn’t play down the line?

Alternatively, I can find cash elsewhere another week, but would need to forego Tedesco this round (more below).

Hosking misses round 15 and I don’t need him this round given my numbers, so whilst I think he is an excellent play, I think I am going to prioritise my trades around rounds 12 and 15 initially.

Hosking may well come in for round 16 if it’s warranted, though there are back row targets like Eli Katoa & Koloamatangi who I see as musts, and quite simply I don’t know how I fit them in as well as Hosking given I own Nikora and Erin Clark already

I’d say Nikora becomes Eli Katoa in round 16, and then I need to find a spot for Koloamatangi next week.

This squeezes Hosking out for the moment purely based on roster spots.

I want him, but he doesn’t fit right now unless I rearrange and miss Hopoi.

I do worry that this will also leave me short of salary cap to make the moves I want to do in the coming weeks, but there will be downgrade options later on, and to be honest Hopoi may well offer little from round 15 on with Doggies guys returning.

You can see me changing my mind on the run here, and that demonstrates the benefit of doing this kind of squad check from time to time, especially during the bye rounds.

Aside from the above my big decision of the week is to Tedesco or not to Tedesco?

He is playing with a decimated squad, which would be unusual for him and also comes up against a full-strength Sharks before Canberra and the bye.

He is an immediate purchase for Round 15 after his bye, providing he isn’t back in Origin, but gee, there are some reasons to wait.

You/I need to make sure we have an avenue to him in round 15, but the more I write and having done my numbers above, I am now leaning to saving a trade and not getting Teddy this week.

Updated Trade Plans

• Kiraz > Iro
• Egan > Hopoi or Hosking (if I am willing to downgrade Haas in coming weeks to open up a spot for Koloamatangi)

I have a couple of hours left to decide, and I also want Tapine, but again, I don’t know how I fit him in.

NRL SuperCoach Round 12 PODs and SuperPODs

Figures drawn from the Top 10% of coaches

Pods at less than 10% ownership

Mawene Hiroti – 7.8%

Loves a run/busy and on the wing now he is a chance to pick up some easy meat pies in the corner. Plays round 12 and 15! Bye next week.

Ronaldo Mulitalo – 5%

This looks a great play to me! His work rate is up and we know he can attack.

On the up and POD of the week for mine.

Matt Burton – 4.9%

Burto has run the footy more of late, and if he holds the goal kicking could be a handy acquisition.

He will certainly kick during major bye rounds.

I like him as a trade for my boy CHT next week or soon.

Close watch tonight.

Blaize Talagi – 4.6%

Love this kid and should only get better! I like the play, but bye coverage isn’t quite as good as some.

Have a crack though if keen, as he may be huge during the mini bye weeks and this weekend.

Jamayne Isaako – 2.8%

Low ownership for a guy who has been there and done it.

A zag from Farnworth?

Dane Gagai – 1.8%

Proven and goalkicking potentially.

Knights are struggling, but a check of the stats suggests he is still doing a job. 

Paul Alamoti – 1.3%

This kid is a gun. Should goal kick when Cleary is away.

He has the potential to explode and should typically base well outside of one bad night a month or so ago.

Bye schedule and lack of Cleary feeding him are flags, but he could be a mega pod.

Jason Saab & Ben Trbojevic – 0.7% each

Saab could score 4 tries or 12 SC points while Ben is coming off a blinder. Both have great bye coverage.

Wow, there are stacks of PODs this season. Worth a look each week!

NRL Supercoach Captains

It’s bye week, so weird things can happen.

Nicho Hynes is a lock for my VC or C.

Then I either will go Garrick before him or Erin Clark (yep) after Nicho if required!