Head to head: Managing the State of Origin period

The bye rounds mean many things. We get the creme de la creme of our sport; State of Origin. Players will turn up next week with new leg tats. And Importantly, we’re almost halfway through our overall SuperCoach season.

If you’re focusing on Head to Head, most leagues will already be over the ‘halfway’ mark, with Finals kicking off typically in Round 23. In this article, we’ll tackle how you should navigate the upcoming State of Origin period between rounds 12 – 19 to maximise your chances of winning your league.

First things first – check your league settings. Each SuperCoach ‘League’ is set up differently and this will impact how you should address the crucial bye rounds. The things to look for are; 1) does your league play H2H in the Major Bye weeks or has this been toggled off, and 2) when do your finals start.

To give you an example of this In my “Salary Sombrero” league, we’ve turned off head-to-head match-ups in this season’s major bye weeks (12/15/18) but still separate ties on the ladder by a teams overall points. 

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That has meant I’m looking at ‘favourable’ draws quite differently than most overall coaches. With our finals system running between rounds 23-26 I know I will only have seven H2H match-ups after round 12 remaining in order to finish in the Top 8 of my league and make finals.

Practically this shift in mindset away from needing to score big in the Major Byes means that while overall coaches are valuing the coverage of the Bulldogs, Chooks and Sea Eagles, they’re not going to be as relevant to me given their byes fall during the Mini rounds or between Origin games.

Here’s my tips on how to navigate the upcoming byes for H2H.

1.Take stock of your position on the ladder and plan accordingly

Pending on your early season form you may be able to take a different approach to the next period of SuperCoach. As it stands, most coaches will be in one of three positions currently, and your attitude to the eight week bye period may change accordingly. Those positions are;

1. Entrenched; you’re flying high at or near the top of your league. Your team is well set up and you can be confident that you will at least make your H2H finals.If you’re firmly entrenched in the top 8 then now could be the time to be conservative and save trades. Sure, the lure of a ‘bye’ or ‘second chance’ in your finals system is great, but nothing can beat trades up the sleeve.
2. Peloton; you’re in the pack, well in contention for finals but still needing to work hard to ensure you get there. This is almost the worst place to be as you need to both look ahead and behind at the teams around you. If this is you, weekly you’ll weigh up the need to jag wins or conserve your trades.
3. Chasing; You’ve had a shocker. You most definitely started with Hopgood and Ponga, and you need to hustle hard to be in with a shot of making Finals. In this instance, you may be left with no choice but to trade hard, find PODs in an attempt to run the table and gain some respect in your league.

2. Count your numbers for round the Major Byes (12, 15, 18) and Mini Byes (13, 16, 19)

Our great mate Spy is huge on this. A lot of Coaches can get caught up planning for the Major byes where seven teams are not playing and our Origin stars are unavailable. But the weeks after Origin can be even trickier as we try to find full 17s with three teams on the bye and Origin stars often not confirmed until 24-hours before they march out. 

This is where knowing your league settings can give you an advantage. If your league does play Byes, then it’s carry on as per normal, but if they don’t counting your numbers a week ahead could help you avoid a banana peel and jag the win against your opponent. 

A practical example of this is a player like Connor Tracey or Reuben Garrick who, whilst they’ve had their moments this year, only play one of the Mini byes each. In this scenario, prioritising a guy like Zac Lomax who plays every Mini bye (provided he backs up from Origin) creates a real point of difference from your opponents. 

In short, if you’re looking short, trading in the Bye week to get ahead would be astute.

Here’s a quick view of the coverage for all teams through the Bye rounds:

All Major and All Mini byes: Sydney Roosters
All Major and one mini byes: Canterbury Bulldogs, Manly Sea Eagles
Two Majors and All Mini byes: North Queensland Cowboys, Newcastle Knights
Two Majors and Two Minis: Cronulla Sharks, Dolphins, Canberra Raiders, St. George Dragons, South Sydney Rabbitohs
One Major and All Minis: Penrith Panthers, New Zealand Warriors, Wests Tigers, Gold Coast Titans, Parramatta Eels, Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm

3. Save your trades!

Trades are the most valuable currency in H2H Finals, and a real way to separate yourself from your rivals. Saving trades could mean the difference between having to hold the likely $850k value of Payne Haas on your bench if injured or having the chance to get players of equal value in. Save those trades!

The number is 8. That is the optimal number of trades that you’d ideally have at the start of your H2H finals to allow you the best chance of ‘max trades’ during the four weeks (I know someone will be thinking you could have more trades if you have a boost but no one is gonna have any left by then, cmon now).

If you’re not playing the byes in your H2H league there’s only two valid reasons to trade in round 13: a) you’ve run your numbers for round 13 and you are looking light on due to the Dolphins, Sharks or Bulldogs bye or b) an active round 13 player in your team has a huge BE and is about to drop a ton of cash. 

4. Know which teams have the best game coverage in H2H rounds

All teams have byes between rounds 12 and 19, so a quick study of the draw is important to understand where you might be caught short with one of your guns missing a game. To understand this, look at the draw between those rounds and remove 12, 15 and 18 to see which teams have the best coverage. And as always, the draw will be judged different dependent on if you play byes or not.

5. Look at which teams have the best draws over the stretch

Going one step deeper into the draw may allow you to find the best players for match-ups during the period, and help decide which guys to sell to ensure you’ve got a strong 17 each week. To help, let’s take a look at the full draw before we take a peak minus the major byes.

Full Calendar – colour coding is based on current total SC points conceded

Best Draws to target

• Melbourne Storm: cover every Minor bye and have weaker opposition across this period
• Cowboys: play seven of eight rounds (equal best) and have weaker opposition and lots of games in Queensland
• Titans: cover every Minor bye and have some softer matchups, especially from Round 15
• Dolphins: play 2 of 3 minor byes, two majors and play all bottom 8 sides except the Sharks
• Knights: play every minor bye and two majors and have a lot of easier matchups until round 17
• Eels: player every Minor  bye and have a soft run in 16 and 17.

Worst draws to target:

• Warriors: play every Minor bye but generally face good defensive sides
• Panthers: play every Minor bye but will not have all Origin players, including Round 16.
• Rabbitohs: play two majors and two minors and face all of the Top 4 teams

6. Know your opposition

This is a super dedicated approach to H2H, but could prove a difference maker, especially in the byes. Studying your upcoming schedule of league opponents and identifying who are your uniques can help guide your tactics for the bye period. For example, if you know this week that your opponent is stacked in round 13 with Dolphins, Dogs or Sharks players and won’t have enough trades to field a full 17, sitting back and taking the win without trading could prove huge down the track for your league. 

Pending your position on the league table, you may need to decide on your level of aggression throughout the bye period. If you’re chasing ranks and need to climb the table trading during the byes is fine, however be smart about it. 

Here’s some players I like for rounds 12-19 of NRL SuperCoach with a head-to-head focus:

• Jahrome Hughes: if he looked fully fit, I’d be more confident that he’d dominate in this period but the draw is undeniable
• AJ Brimson: a switch to fullback and a good draw is one thing. Low ownership is another. Tough to do it this week against the Storm but he’s looking like a decent POD option.
• Dylan Lucas/Greg Marzhew: ignore the results, the SuperCoach output for these guys is undeniable. 
• Zac Lomax: most won’t have this on their radar because of the Origin commitments. But Lomax has the game to be a Top 5 CTW despite the poor ladder position of the Eels. They’ve a nice draw, especially in Round 16 against the Titans.
• Euan Aitken: yes the draw is tough, but at his price and with his dual he’s a really nice option who should be a reliable 60-70 point scorer in your CTW or 2RF.

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