NRL Round 21 Teams: Supercoach Squad Analysis

Koloamatangi, Holmes, Lucas, Fa’asuamaleaui, Nikora, Papenhuyzen…

The above are just a handful of highly owned players to be ruled out for the season or suffer injuries in recent weeks.

NRL Supercoach is starting to deliver some good old-fashioned carnage as we enter the back stretch of the season.

It’s one of the most fascinating narratives each year.

Will injuries see Supercoach teams depleted in final games, or will the SC Gods look after the popular assets in the game?

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It then ties into two completely different strategies: go hard on trades to maximise scoring across the season, or save a few up the sleeve to deal with the potential carnage?

Last season, we avoided a major injury toll and late-season restings for the most part.

This was fairly rare as most seasons prior had damage late on.

If injuries and restings are avoided, it can leave trade hoarders feeling like they missed opportunities to make moves.

If injuries do hit, it leaves those with trades in the bank extremely well placed to make big moves at the business end of the season.

This is, of course, is vitality important for head-to-head focused players looking to win leagues; having trades in the bank is imperative to success in finals fixtures.

I’ve always had an approach to build a deep squad to allow big moves late in the season.

So far it’s looking like a good one, but as I learnt last year, it can backfire if the carnage is kept to a minimum.

It’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out on the run home, that’s for sure!

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Speaking of, the Cooma Stallions had a stinker in round 20 with most things going wrong.

I had my finger hovering over the trigger finger of Dylan Edwards, but unfortunately didn’t have the nads to pull it, while early game injuries to Briton Nikora and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui had me reeling.

Captain Terrell went big on Sunday to avoid utter chaos…

I finished with a very poor score of 1,160 points to drop to 2,600^th overall.

It’s an extremely disappointing result, so green arrows are vital this week!

Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach analysis for Round 21, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports. 

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ROOSTERS v STORM

Thursday, 7:50pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Ethan King 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Sandon Smith 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Salesi Foketi 13. Siua Wong

Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Blake Steep 16. Egan Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu

Reserves: 18. Tom Rodwell 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Makahesi Makatoa 21. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Hugo Savala

Analysis: I’m a little torn on Angus Crichton, at just $590k with his Supercoach pedigree, I feel he’s a steal, but the numbers and eye test really aren’t there to back it up in 2025.

He crossed for a try on the weekend, which was just his second of the season, while he’s yet to have an assist.

He hasn’t cracked 80 yet, however, he has a low score of 44, one of just two scores under 50 for the season, so he’s very consistent.

He’s still busting tackles and offloading (except for the past two weeks), he just hasn’t looked like cracking those major attacking stats as he did last season.

I do still think he’s a good buy at the price, but he’s hardly a lock in your starting 18 each week at the moment with his upside restricted for the time being.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is becoming problematic with back-to-back scores of just 34 and 32 after his two tonnes.

At $668k, there’s still plenty of value for anyone looking to trade with a breakeven of 159.

If you’re flush with trades, you could move on with the Roosters having a fairly tricky run home, but I think he’s best holding and playing for the softer match-ups and sitting for the tougher ones, including this week.

Sandon Smith returns at five-eighth in place of Chad Townsend, Hugo Savala is likely out for one more week but has been named on the extended bench.

Billy Smith is out due to a HIA suffered against the Sharks.

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Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Joe Chan 5. Xavier Coates 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Kane Bradley

Reserves: 18. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 19. Josiah Pahulu 20. Jonah Pezet 21. Coby Williamson 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Analysis: The Storm face an extremely tough run home with all night games, although the next fortnight is okay against the Roosters and Eels, both away.

After that, they face the Broncos, Panthers, Bulldogs, Roosters and Broncos.

Ryan Papenhuyzen has not been named again, this makes him a definite sell.

Nick Meaney owners are again the winners as he’ll play fullback and goal-kick.

Cameron Munster is out this week due to personal leave, with Tyran Wishart to play five-eighth.

Kane Bradley has been named on the bench which isn’t ideal as an auto-emergency nightmare.

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COWBOYS v DRAGONS

Friday, 6pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Zac Laybutt 5. Braidon Burns 6. Thomas Duffy 7. Tom Dearden 8. Harrison Edwards 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Karl Lawton 15. Kaiden Lahrs 16. Kai O’Donnell 17. Coen Hess

Reserves: 18. Jaxson Paulo 19. Nicholas Lenaz 20. Temple Kalepo 21. Marly Bitungane 22. Dane Aukafolau

Analysis: While there is somewhat of a rollercoaster aspect to Scott Drinkwater’s scoring with the ability to go low, he’s proving pretty well fixture proof this season against top-ranked teams.

In eight games against the top six placed teams in the NRL this season, he’s averaging 87 points per game, which is 6 points higher than his season average!

Two of his final six games are against teams in the top six, while the other four are fairly soft. He’s a gun, hold.

He’s the only relevant Supercoach player at the Cowboys at the moment unless you wanted to take a flyer on Tommy Dearden, but I don’t trust the team’s form week-to-week.

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Dragons: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Mathew Feagai 5. Corey Allan 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin

Bench: 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Hamish Stewart 17. Michael Molo

Reserves: 18. Nicholas Tsougranis 19. Ben Murdoch-Masila 20. Lachlan Ilias 21. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 22. Jacob Halangahu

Analysis: With a tough run home, there’s currently zero interest in the Dragons Supercoach contingent.

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BRONCOS v EELS

Friday, 8pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Xavier Willison 9. Ben Hunt 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Corey Jensen 17. Jack Gosiewski

Reserves: 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Deine Mariner 20. Selwyn Cobbo 21. Ben Talty 22. Jaiyden Hunt

Analysis: Brisbane becomes very interesting for the run home with four of six games at Suncorp Stadium, including the Eels and Rabbitohs over the next fortnight.

If they continue their surge in form, they could be the team to jump on, but they’re equally as capable of hitting a wall.

However, rested from the bye with Origin players on deck and on current form, they look the goods.

Is it Reece Walsh time?

For those that missed Dylan Edwards last week for his huge price rise, the Brisbane flyer is $100k cheaper.

The quote frequently attached to Walsh is that “he has to do a lot to score well”.

I don’t disagree, but he’s an attacking weapon and more often than not, he does do a lot!

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Since returning from injury in round 14, he has an average of 80 points per game in four fixtures.

He averaged 75 last year – elevated to 81 disregarding a game of 4 minutes – and he averaged 80 per game in 2023.

Further, if anything happens to Adam Reynolds, he’d take over the goal-kicking duties.

It’s risky, but it’s enticing.

Payne Haas returns from a rest.

He’s essentially a must for the run home with the only concern being the injury niggle he carried through Origin.

With potential to have that managed, including early showers if the Broncos get out to some leads, you could wait and watch this week, but he’ll be hard to ignore.

While the attacking ball eluded him against the Titans, Josiah Karapani looks like an excellent play in 18s over the next two weeks.

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Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker

Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti

Reserves: 18. Dan Keir 19. Jordan Samrani 20. Bailey Simonsson 21. Toni Mataele 22. Dylan Brown

Analysis: Despite another tough two weeks against the Broncos and Storm, Zac Lomax looks a must for the run home.

If you have more pressing trades, you could wait until round 23 when the draw really opens up, though.

He does come up against the significantly weaker defensive edge of the Broncos this week.

Since shifting from centre to the wing in round 11 on return from injury, he’s averaged 85 points per game, which included four games against top 6 teams.

In recent games against arguably the two in-form teams of the competition in Canberra and Penrith, he scored 95 and 86, gun!

He’s $735k with a breakeven of 67, you can either buy this week or make plans to grab him by round 23 because he could go bonkers over the final stretch of the season.

I sold Charlie Guymer a few weeks back when he was languishing in reggies, and now he’s locked in an 80-minute edge spot for the Eels and looks like prime Anthony Laffranchi…

Back-to-back scores of 68 and 80, with 47 and 69 in base.

What a beast.

It was all too little too late for the Stallions (insert tiny violin music), but there’s a genuine case to buy at $387k with a breakeven of -23.

He’d free up cash to make moves elsewhere and be a viable play in 18s on current role, although it could change at any point as Jason Ryles tinkers with his squad for 2026. 

The Eels do have plenty of back-row injuries though, so in theory he should be relatively secure.

Isaiah Iongi is out for a month, Joash Papalii shifts to fullback while Mitch Moses returns at halfback in good news for Lomax on the right.

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WARRIORS v TITANS 

Saturday, 3pm, Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark

Bench: 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jacob Laban 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

Reserves: 18. Taine Tuaupiki 20. Samuel Healey 21. Bunty Afoa 22. Ali Leiataua 23. Eddie Ieremia

Analysis: The Warriors run home is sublime, with just two games against top eight opposition in the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles.

Tanah Boyd has chipped away nicely in his first two games with an average of 59 points.

He’s $329k with a breakeven of -6 and looks a decent way to free up cash elsewhere.

While you wouldn’t rush to play him each week as there’ll be some low scores, if your starting five-eighth went down, he’s a viable enough play every week, barring probably the Bulldogs clash.

There’s not a lot to add on the Warriors; we’ve spoken at nauseam about Erin Clark and Wayde Egan, while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck remains a strong POD play for the run home.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns at fullback in place of Taine Tuaupiki.

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Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Jaylan De Groot 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Klese Haas

Bench: 14. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 15. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 16. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui

Reserves: 17. Josh Patston 18. Arama Hau 19. Sean Mullany 20. Tom Weaver 21. Ryan Foran 22. Alofiana Khan-Pereira

Analysis: There’s not a heap to add on the Titans, Beau Fermor is a rock-solid hold with a season average of 67, which elevates when removing time spent at centre.

He has a low score of just 50 this season in games in the back-row, outstanding.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is out for a month, but you do wonder if they’ll rush him back afterwards with the season done.

He now becomes a sell.

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PANTHERS v TIGERS

Saturday, 5:30pm, CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Luron Patea 17. Matt Eisenhuth

Reserves: 18. Paul Alamoti 19. Liam Martin 20. Daine Laurie 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Luke Sommerton

Analysis: Dylan Edwards determined the fate of Supercoaches last round, and perhaps he’ll do the same this week.

At the time of writing he’s the most traded in player, currently at 46% ownership among the top 10% overall and unsurprisingly 69% among the top 1% overall.

Nathan Cleary returns, so what impact will that have on Edwards?

Last week was the first game this season that Edwards featured without Cleary.

In games without Cleary in 2024, he averaged 90 points in 11 games.

In games with Cleary in 2024, he averaged 78 points in six games.

While the numbers are still decent without Cleary, it’s a fairly substantial drop off in average.

It’d tempt me to avoid, but the upcoming games against the Tigers and Titans at CommBank are mouthwatering…

The big question all week will be whether or not Cleary regains the goal-kicking duties from Edwards.

If Edwards continues to kick, he’s probably a must.

If Cleary regains the kicking, he’s probably a must.

The mail dropping this week before the round begins would be very handy…

Brian To’o has been named to place despite a concern with his knee last week.

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Tigers: 1. Sunia Turuva 2. Izaac Tu’itupou 3. Taylan May 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Jarome Luai 7. Latu Fainu 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Alex Twal 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Tony Sukkar 13. Adam Doueihi

Bench: 14. Tristan Hope 15. Jack Bird 16. Fonua Pole 17. Sione Fainu

Reserves: 18. Brent Naden 19. Charlie Murray 20. Charlie Staines 21. Luke Laulilii 22. Krystian Mapapalangi

Analysis: With the Panthers into the Bulldogs, then a bye, the Tigers are an avoid for me.

Taylan May is a watch after a monstrous return to the NRL, which included nine tackle busts.

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RABBITOHS v SHARKS

Saturday, 7:35pm, Polytec Stadium, Gosford

Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Tallis Duncan 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Jack Wighton 7. Lewis Dodd 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Siliva Havili 10. Sean Keppie 11. Euan Aitken 12. Jai Arrow 13. Lachlan Hubner

Bench: 14. Liam Le Blanc 15. Jacob Host 16. Ryan Gray 17. Ashton Ward

Reserves: 18. Thomas Fletcher 19. Shaquai Mitchell 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 22. Ammaron Gudgeon

Analysis: Unfortunately, with a barely believable injury toll, you couldn’t really consider any Rabbitohs players at the moment.

Add Latrell Mitchell and Keaon Koloamatangi to that list, and they become even less desirable.

Keaon is out for the season and is a sell.

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Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Billy Burns 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Jayden Berrell 19. Chris Veaila 20. Hohepa Puru 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Niwhai Puru

Analysis: With the Rabbitohs injury list, and the Sharks’ surge in form, this becomes a very favourable match-up for Cronulla players.

Nicho Hynes looms as a genuine captaincy option, probably VC if you can make it happen, but the later game in the round makes it tricky.

Blayke Brailey is the man with the hot hand, with hooker being a troublesome position all season and fairly bland, who’d have thought the Sharks rake would burst onto the radar.

Maxy Bryden crunched the numbers on Brailey and since he got the running license five games ago, he’s become the best player in Supercoach not named Herbie Farnworth (Maxy’s words, not mine…)

The five round average of 94 is super impressive. But when you dig under the hood, you can start to see why the investment could be worth it.

In the last five weeks, he’s now averaging 62 in base and power stats.

That puts him on par with Hudson, Keaon, and Kiraz, and into the top 10 in the league – which means his floor is elite.

So when you combine an elite floor with a soft draw, he becomes a prospect that is a truly viable replacement for an injured forward if you have the duals.

Is 30 points in attack sustainable week on week? Probably not.

But he plays three of the worst six middle defences in the next month, so there’s every chance he keeps finding some holes to exploit.

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Jesse Ramien was a late scratching last week with a hamstring concern, he returns this week, while Briton Nikora is out after suffering a head knock last week.

With a three-round average of 46 points, Addin Fonua-Blake has underwhelmed.

He’s busted just two tackles in his last three games, while he hasn’t offloaded in a month!

His base has been down, and he’s not looking as explosive as he has in the past.

Perhaps he’s carrying a niggle.

Ordinarily, I’d say he’s a sell, but with the likes of Koloamatangi and Dylan Lucas injured and concerns around Tino, I think you probably just hold the big fella.

He doesn’t look like an overly enticing play in 18s for the time being, though.

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RAIDERS v KNIGHTS

Sunday, 2pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Simi Sasagi 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh

Bench: 14. Owen Pattie 15. Noah Martin 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota

Reserves: 18. Manaia Waitere 19. Trey Mooney 20. Joseph Roddy 21. Danny Levi 22. Ethan Sanders

Analysis: Popular trade-in Kaeo Weekes was saved by a late try-assist for his 46 points against the Eels.

Regardless, he looked dangerous throughout, and there’s likely more tonnes incoming on the run home.

Hudson Young encouragingly played the full 80 despite an ongoing groin concern; his 47 in base was in line with his season average.

Zac Hosking has burst into form with two tonnes in his past three games.

His minutes may drop when Matty Nicholson returns from injury.

Ordinarily, I’d say he’s a sell in coming rounds, but with the previously mentioned injury concerns at 2RF and FRF, you can hold a few weeks and reassess.

If guaranteed 80 minutes each week, I’d just hold for the season, but I’ll likely look to offload for the Raiders round 24 bye.

Seb Kris is out this week pushing Simi Sasagi to centre, meaning Hosking will play 80 minutes or near enough. Watch and reassess in coming weeks.

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Knights: 1. Dane Gagai 2. Dominic Young 3. Fletcher Hunt 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jackson Hastings 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Phoenix Crossland

Bench: 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Mathew Croker 16. Tyson Frizell 17. Jack Hetherington

Reserves: 18. Thomas Cant 19. James Schiller 20. Matthew Arthur 21. Brodie Jones 22. Kyle McCarthy

Analysis: There’s not a lot of interest at the Knights with a run against the Raiders, bye and Panthers.

It’s worth noting though, Dane Gagai backed up his strong form at fullback with 93 points against the Warriors.

He also took over the goal-kicking from Jackson Hastings after he struggled early on.

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BULLDOGS v SEA EAGLES

Sunday, 4:05pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Enari Tuala 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon

Bench: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Josh Curran 17. Bailey Hayward

Reserves: 19. Jethro Rinakama 20. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 21. Blake Wilson 22. Kurtis Morrin 23. Toby Sexton

Analysis: Viliame Kikau and Jacob Preston are both flat-lining a touch with two scores under 50 in their last three games.

They’d be shaping as potential sells, but with injuries stacking up at a rapid rate, I do find it tough to recommend selling fit players in a gun team with a soft draw.

Perhaps they become sit candidates on certain weeks, but they’ve both lost a bit of value and loom as quality options for the run home as things get trickier with squad depth.

For anyone after a five-eighth, there’s a genuine play in Lachy Galvin.

He’s just $444k with a 57 point average this season.

In 80-minute games, this increases to an average of 62 points per game.

In three 80-minute games at the Bulldogs, he’s averaging 70 points per game.

Rookie Jethro Rinakama has been dropped with the return of Bronson Xerri.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Lehi Hopoate 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Tommy Talau 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Caleb Navale 21. Joey Walsh 22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong

Analysis: Manly have come into some strong form, but a tough stretch of games against the Bulldogs, Roosters and Raiders is enough for me to steer clear.

From round 24-27 they face the Tigers, Dolphins, Dragons and Warriors, where they’ll become very relevant if they can maintain their current form.

There’s also a chance the Warriors opt to rest in that final round at Brookvale Oval if they’re locked into that fourth spot.

Tommy Turbo is quietly averaging 91 points per game in his roaming centre role.

Haumole Olakau’atu returns from a shoulder injury.