Fixture analysis: Defenders to target/avoid for clean sheets

Welcome to the inaugural season of EPL Supercoach – and if you’re coming from NRL, you already know that defence wins championships.

For newcomers to the fantasy game, here’s the thing: defensive points are the most predictable of any position, making fixture analysis your biggest edge in those crucial opening weeks.

Why Fixtures Matter for Defenders

Clean sheets and goals conceded are the big drivers of defensive scoring – and fixtures are your best predictor of when these will happen.

While other defensive stats like tackles, clearances and interceptions don’t always correlate with fixture difficulty, clean sheet potential absolutely does.

Get your fixture analysis right early, and your defensive foundation practically selects itself.

How to Read the Fixture Tables

Before we dive into the analysis, here’s how to decode the fixture difficulty:

Colour coding:

• Green = Easy Fixture – expect clean sheets
• Red = Bad Fixture – likely goals conceded
• White – mixed difficulty

Key details:

• CAPITAL LETTERS = Home game (LEE, NFO, MCI for Arsenal)
• Lowercase = Away game (Mun, Liv for Arsenal)
• Gameweeks 1-5 shown across the table
• Data based on each team’s expected goals from last season, with all promoted sides given the easiest difficulty rating

Dream Defensive Starts: Lock These In

Sunderland – Dream Fixtures, Risky Assets

The Black Cats have been handed the dream run – you genuinely won’t find kinder opening fixtures.

They had the Championship’s fourth-best defence last season, but here’s the thing: promoted team defenders are still too bloody risky regardless of how green those fixtures look.

My take: Appreciate the fixture quality from the sidelines.

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Aston Villa – Clean Sheet Machines

Villa closed last season with six clean sheets in their final ten Premier League games, and their opening slate sets them up beautifully.

Don’t stress about that Newcastle opener either – with Isak’s rumoured move creating uncertainty, they’re not the attacking force they once were.

Strongly consider: Ezri Konsa (5.49mil) – solid defender, perfectly priced for a defence that should start fast.

Brentford – New Manager, Wait and See

Brentford defenders haven’t been selected by many Supercoachers despite their strong opening fixtures.

Nathan Collins (8.25mil) will score points and could provide early value, but that price tag makes him tough to fit in starting squads.

With Keith Andrews now in charge, let’s wait and see how they go early under new management.

Chelsea – Riding the Club World Cup High

The Blues have been handed an absolute gift of a fixture run. Their Club World Cup triumph and strong season finish has them primed for a flyer, and these opening matches are perfect for clean sheet hunting.

My picks: Sanchez (6.92mil) for set-and-forget keeper value or Cucurella (7.65mil) for attacking returns. Both could work if you’re willing to double down on their defence – and honestly, I’m considering it.

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Nottingham Forest – Banking on Another Fast Start

Forest’s defence exploded early last season before reality hit in the back half. Their opening fixtures give them two excellent clean sheet chances early, and that’s exactly what you want from Nuno’s defensive setup.

The choice: Sels (7.05mil), Murillo (8.76mil), and Milenkovic (9.32mil) are all difficult to split. Currently leaning Milenkovic (9.32mil) for the attacking upside, but any of the three could work.

West Ham – The Diouf Discovery

POD alert: This is your differential gold mine. Diouf (3.75mil) has been playing left wing-back in preseason and opens against Sunderland at home. Seriously, go watch the West Ham vs Bournemouth preseason highlights if you haven’t already – expect him to score similarly to his teammate Wan-Bissaka (8.29mil) based on that attacking wing-back role.

Nightmare Runs: Steer Clear Early

Bournemouth – Summer Exodus Spells Trouble

That opening fixture is brutal enough, but it’s the summer departures that really kill their appeal. Huijsen to Real Madrid, Kerkez to Liverpool, and potentially Zabarnyi to PSG – that’s a massive defensive exodus.

Fair play to them for selling to three of Europe’s biggest clubs, but can their backline maintain last season’s standards? With these fixtures, I’m waiting to find out.

Newcastle – Summer of Discontent

The Magpies haven’t had a great summer, and their opening two fixtures are absolute season-killers for any defence.

Livramento (5.76mil) will definitely feature in my team at some point this season, but he’s nowhere near my starting squad.

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Tottenham – Frank’s Defensive Revolution

Putting Arsenal bias aside, Spurs legitimately had a terrible defensive record last year under Ange, but Thomas Frank brings a much more defensive mindset from his successful Brentford stint.

Expecting a big uptick this season, but that City fixture in GW2 is still a killer regardless of tactical changes. Udogie (4.64mil) sits at 31% ownership but has barely kicked a ball in preseason with unclear starting status. Van de Ven (5.28mil) offers value, just bench him for those tough fixtures.

Everton – Waiting for the price drop

The Toffees had the fourth-best xGoals Against last year, so they can’t be completely ignored despite where they’ll likely finish on the table.

Tarkowski (9.24mil) is an absolute beast, but I’ll be hoping to get him at a cheaper price after that Liverpool fixture tanks his value.

Manchester United – Cheap Doesn’t Mean Cheerful

Cheap prices for Yoro (3.9mil) and Dorgu (4.4mil) have attracted some Supercoachers, but here’s my honest assessment: Yoro (3.9mil) feels 50:50 to start each week, making him an avoid for me.

Dorgu (4.4mil) might sneak into squads as bench cover given his preseason form, but only for selective gameweeks. Arsenal, City, and Chelsea is a brutal start for the Red Devils.

Arsenal – Best Defence, Worst Timing

The Premier League’s best defensive side last year faces an absolute nightmare start.

Raya (6.77mil) lacks save points appeal despite clean sheet potential, while Gabriel (9.42mil) remains a must-have defender once fixtures turn in GW7.

For now, the fixture difficulty outweighs the quality – even for Arsenal’s defence.