Looking for value in NFL Supercoach prices | QB and RB

We’re a week away from kick-off.

Pre-season is over, roster cuts have been made, and it’s time to be putting the finishing touches on our first ever NFL Supercoach rosters.

As I’ve been transitioning over from an American Summer of drafting Best Ball rosters and redraft leagues to this new challenge of NFLSC, it’s been very interesting to dig into the similarities and differences between the different games.

I believe there are some lessons that we can learn from the more traditional forms of NFL fantasy, and also some edges that we can exploit.

Let’s get into it.

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This article is going to lean heavily on Underdog Fantasy average draft position (ADP).

For those who aren’t familiar, Underdog Fantasy is the US leader in Best Ball fantasy contests.

Best Ball is a form of fantasy football where you draft an 18-man roster, and that’s it. There is no in-season management.

The software automatically picks your best-performing squad each week.

Your roster then competes against the other teams in your pool for the first 14 weeks of the season, and if you win your pool, you’re thrown in against all of the other thousands of pool winners in a 3-week free-for-all where the best-scoring teams win hundreds of thousands (sometimes millions) of dollars in prizes.

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The reason this is important, is because with all of that money on the line, Underdog has become the place where the sharpest minds in all of fantasy compete.

There is a multi-billion-dollar industry that has sprung up around Best Ball fantasy, and as such, the average draft positions on this platform have become extremely efficient.

It is a true wisdom of the crowds situation, and this crowd collectively is astoundingly wise. 

So, knowing that, it becomes very helpful for us to use Underdog Fantasy ADPs as a comparison point with starting Supercoach prices to identify where the value lies.

If a player is being drafted on Underdog as the 14^th running back off the board, but they are the 40^th most expensive running back in NFLSC, clearly there is some money to be made. 

Before we jump into the position-by-position breakdown, a few overarching observations:

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Forward Looking vs Backward Looking

ADP in NFL fantasy is ultimately about trying to identify the upcoming season’s production and results.

Yes, previous performance is a huge factor.

But it’s far from the only element.

ADPs are pulling in past performance, roster changes, coaching changes, strength of schedule, advanced metrics etc etc.

They are doing their best to be predictive.

Conversely, Supercoach pricing is purely based on what has come before.

As a result, there are going to be significant inefficiencies in Supercoach pricing where players are vastly under or overpriced based on what they did last year.

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The Kids Are Alright

Which leads directly to my next point – the rookies in NFLSC are extraordinarily underpriced.

SC has priced the first-year guys either at, or very close to, min-price.

When you consider that there are players like Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Teitaroa McMillan who are going in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4^th round of Underdog drafts, who you can get for essentially minimum value in SC, these players become must-haves and the primary way we can build Team Value.

It’s really just about how many is too many.

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Stars & Scrubs

There’s a roster construction term that has become prevalent in the daily fantasy NFL streets – stars and scrubs.

Basically, the NFL version of guns and cows.

With the way that rookies have been priced in NFLSC, I believe that this is the way we have to approach building our initial teams.

Because we can get such highly projected players for minimum price, it allows us to squeeze in many of the top-priced guns.

The mid-range then becomes far less relevant unless we’re looking for POD plays to differentiate. 

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Upside Is The Priority

When you’re playing in a standard NFL redraft league with your buddies, there’s an element of risk-aversion built in.

It’s scary to draft Christian McCaffrey 7^th overall, because if his Achilles injury flares up again in week 3 and you lose him for the year, it’s really hard to recover.

There’s no real way to replicate his production on the waiver wire unless you get extraordinarily lucky.

In NFLSC, that risk is mitigated because of the trading system, and the fact that everyone can own every player.

Assets are less scarce.

If a CMC goes down, you use a trade to replace him with Derrick Henry, and you move on.

Yes, we want to be careful with our trades, but we can also be far more aggressive with our selections, knowing that we have contingencies when guys go down.

I think if you’re aware of those factors as you begin to build your squad, you’ve got a good foundation for success.

Now let’s go through position-by-position, comparing UD ADPs vs SC starting prices to see where we can find some value. 

Quarterbacks

I’ll start off the QB write-up by saying, if you’re not using the flex position on a QB, you’re doing it wrong.

The position is by far the highest scoring in NFL fantasy, and the fact that we’re allowed to select a QB in the flex almost turns NFLSC into the equivalent of a Superflex league in fantasy.

If you’ve played in one of those, you’ll know that the first two rounds of those drafts are absolutely dominated by QB selections.

Don’t overthink it.

To me, the QB position is perhaps the simplest one we have to parse through.

The biggest question being whether you go for 3 true studs, or you decide that the value we’re getting from the 2 rookies (or effectively rookies in the case of JJ McCarthy) is too hard to pass up.

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I would be selecting at least two of the Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts tier.

These are the superstars of the position, and all 4 of them combine the safety that they get from their rushing floor with unmatched TD upside.

As a Ravens fan, I’m partial to Lamar Jackson, but really this is personal preference.

You do get a nice little salary saving on Hurts and Daniels.

It’s hard for Hurts to fail when you factor in the deadly weapon that is the Tush Push, and the sky is the limit for Daniels, who could easily be the #1 QB in NFLSC in a year’s time.

I see no real reason to mess with any of the next 6 guys on the list above.

They’re priced too closely to the truly elite tier to make it worthwhile.

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Joe Burrow in particular is priced at his ceiling after an outrageous TD-rate season in 2024, and he lacks the rushing upside of those above him.

Mahomes is the best real-life QB in the world but has lacked a true fantasy upside in recent years with the ball control offence the Chiefs like to play.

Murray, Purdy, Mayfield are who they are at this point. 

The 11-14 range holds some interest if you’re looking to save a little salary, with the prospect of upside.

Prescott is priced well below where he’s going in UD drafts after an injury-ruined season, but was the QB4 in points per game when he was last healthy and added George Pickens at WR.

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Maye looks like a rising superstar at the position and has the rushing potential to be a tier 1 fantasy QB in future years.

Williams was the #1 pick in the NFL draft for a reason and has an all-star cast around him and one of the best offensive minds in the league now as his head coach.

Fields is a below average real-life QB but racks up fantasy points with his legs and is drastically underpriced on SC compared to where he’s going in drafts.

Ultimately, I don’t think we’re saving enough with this tier to sacrifice one of the Big 4 or a rookie. 

The real interest comes with the 3 names highlighted in blue.

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Unfortunately for us, Michael Penix played the last few games of the 2024 season and looked electric, pushing his price up to close to $10m to start 2025.

This takes him out of consideration for me to start, but he’s an aggressive deep-ball merchant with talent around him, so he’s one to watch.

Cam Ward was the #1 pick in the real NFL draft and comes to the league with a reputation as a gunslinger who will force the ball downfield to his playmakers and take chances.

He’s going at QB23 in fantasy drafts and is priced at just $1m above the minimum price in SC. He’s in the mix for me.

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JJ McCarthy is going at QB16 in fantasy drafts and is priced at the stone minimum for SC.

He missed his entire rookie year with injury but is in a stellar offensive environment with a rising O-line, Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison to throw to, and Head Coach Kevin McConnell, who is a proven QB whisperer, getting the most out of every signal caller he works with.

I think the value is too good to pass up on McCarthy, and he’ll be in my starting squad. 

One to watch: rookie Jaxson Dart will likely be behind Russell Wilson for the Giants, but he’s been excellent in pre-season and is priced at near minimum.

He’ll get the call at some point and will be an excellent cheapie when he does. 

Running Backs

The top of the running back position also has a top tier, though it’s probably not as clearly defined as it is at quarterback, and there’s far more room for year over year volatility.

Bijan Robinson is the RB1 on UD after a scorching hot finish to 2024, and he looks to be an ascending player.

You can get him for a little bit of value as the 4^th most expensive RB in Supercoach.

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Jahmyr Gibbs is another who ended 2024 on a tear, and has every skill you could want from a superstar running back.

David Montgomery is still there to siphon some goal line work, but Gibbs is too talented to keep off the field, and there have been whispers that the new Lions OC will expand his role.

Saquon Barkley had an otherworldly 2024 season and with much of the same infrastructure around him, he should once again be set up for success.

The main question with him is the specter of injury with his past and the history of backs coming off 400+ touch seasons (hint: it isn’t good).

Thankfully, in Supercoach, unlike fantasy, we can just trade him out for a similar quality player if injury strikes.

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Similarly to Barkley, Derrick Henry is a workhorse on a SuperBowl contender who was put on this earth to score touchdowns.

Some concerns over workload and rising age, but again, that’s what the trades are for if we see signs of wear on the tires. 

Right below that price tier, we’ve got a quartet of guys with super interesting profiles who are undervalued compared to their Underdog ADPs.

Christian McCaffrey is the best player in fantasy football when he’s healthy, and all off-season signs point to that being the case.

He’s being drafted as the RB4 on UD, but we can get him at RB10 in Supercoach, saving around $6m dropping down from a guy like Barkley.

His injury history is what’s keeping his stocks down in fantasy, but in SC, that risk is significantly mitigated.

You throw in the Niners unbelievably soft schedule and CMC has a lot of appeal.

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DeVon Achane put up ludicrous numbers when his starting QB was on the field last season – he was essentially the entire Dolphins offense.

Supposedly, he’ll be ready for Week 1 and he’s underpriced on SC.

Chase Brown and Bucky Irving are very similar profiles – year 2/3 breakouts on exciting offenses who both look to have strangleholds on their respective back-fields.

Both have legitimate shots at top 5 RB seasons this year and are significantly underpriced compared to their ADPs…particularly Irving.

Then you get to the 4 rookies, and the only question here is, how many do you want to try to jam in?

Ashton Jeanty was a sensation who essentially broke College Football, is going as the RB5 in fantasy drafts, and is almost min-priced in SC.

Should be 100% owned.

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Omarion Hampton was a first-round draft pick for a team that wants to run the absolute crap out of the ball, and his backfield competition almost blew his eye off in a fireworks accident and hasn’t practiced in almost 2 months.

Close to a must-have.

TreVeyon Henderson is a second-round rookie who has been lighting up the pre-season and getting glowing training camp reports.

His Underdog ADP has been rising rapidly over the last month as it seems to be getting increasingly difficult for the Patriots to keep him off the field.

Could be a slightly slower starter but still enormous value.

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RJ Harvey is our fourth rookie.

He didn’t go quite as high in the draft, but the Broncos seem to love him and Sean Payton teams have a history of absolutely peppering the running back with targets.

He’ll be in a time-share with JK Dobbins, but getting the RB20 in UD drafts at a basement price is still hard to pass up.

I have all 4 of the rookies in my side right now. 

Jonathan Taylor jumps out to me as an avoid, not because he’s a terrible pick, but simply because he’s overpriced compared to his UD draft slot and sandwiched right between the elite tier, and the ascendent values beneath him.

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Alvin Kamara is significantly overpriced compared to where he’s being taken in UD drafts and he’s an aging back on maybe the worst roster in the NFL.

David Montgomery is overdue for some negative TD regression and with the Lions coaching changes and the rising star of Jahmyr Gibbs demanding more playing time, I struggle to see him justifying his cost. 

For a couple of middle to lower-range values, Isaiah Pacheco is another year removed from serious injury and apparently has looked healthy and back to full speed in training camp.

He maintains a stranglehold on most of the backfield work on a perennial Superbowl contender and he’s available at a manageable cost.

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Kaleb Johnson is in a trickier spot than some of the other rookies with Jaylen Warren to contend with in an anemic-looking offense on paper, but he was a talented College player with draft pedigree.

Just may be a slower burn. 

The last 5 names in the grid are guys to keep an eye on immediately in week one.

Their backfield situations are too murky to have them ahead of the rookie names above, but all of them have a realistic shot at being excellent cheapies for us at some point during the season.

There’s no entrenched incumbent in front of them, and if they perform, they could take hold of a lion’s share of touches.   

Back soon with tight ends and wide receivers!