NFL Supercoach Week 1 | Buy, Hold, Sell

Week one is in the books, and if you’re like me, you’re already considering some panic moves to stay ahead of the curve.

I’m not too disappointed with my first score of the season coming in at 500, but there are a few notable players I’d like to see more out of. 

Ja’Marr Chase was the victim of a poor Bengals O-Line and didn’t ever really look like getting into the game.

Gibbs and St Brown were big underperformers in a Lions offence terrorised by the Green Bay defence and their new little-known situational edge rusher Micah Parsons, who’d have thought that?!

Some rookies were great and others weren’t, but that’s what we expect in their first real action of the year. 

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I’m sitting here regretting not going after Derrick Henry, but the guys who stuck around instead of him still performed and beat their breakevens, so it’s not all bad.

Will I make changes? Probably.

But at the moment, I’m of the thinking I don’t want to panic after week 1 and waste trades. 

In saying that, let’s dive into some over reactions and this week’s buy, hold, and sell!

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Buy

Josh Allen ($28.18m, Buffalo Bills QB, 18 BE) and Lamar Jackson ($30.01m, Baltimore Ravens QB, 43 BE)

I said it last week and I’ll say it again: if you don’t have these 2 as your QB and flex, then you’re going to fall behind the pack.

As is tradition, Carrie Underwood said what we’ve all been thinking as we waited all day for the Sunday night clash between these two AFC heavyweights and boy did it deliver. 

With 4 minutes to go, both QB’s were on 58 points and the Bills were 15 points behind.

With a 0.9% win chance, enter reigning MVP Josh Allen.

Allen led the Bills to 2 touchdowns and a field goal within 4 minutes against the team he’ll most likely meet in January next year again to compete for the AFC championship. 

Lamar had the run of the mill for the majority of the game, passing for 2 TD’s and running for a third, finishing with just under 300 all-purpose yards and one of the Supercoach performances of the week.

Coaches were reminded why this guy is a top player in the league.

Allen took longer to get going, but once he did, it was always going to be hard to stop him.

Allen finished with 2 passing TD’s and 2 rushing TD’s to go along with over 400 all-purpose yards. 

For me, I’ll be sticking with these 2, barring injury, and I think you’re crazy if you don’t jump on board. 

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Marquise (Hollywood) Brown ($7.26m, Kansas City Chiefs WR, -5 BE) 

Doesn’t seem to be popping up on many people’s radars despite being the focal point for this unfamiliar-looking Chiefs offense.

Hollywood had a phenomenal 16 targets and 10 receptions for 99 yards but no TD’s.

With receptions in SuperCoach giving you 1 point, you’ve already got yourself a double-digit performer without any yardage, nice. 

It seems as though people are forgetting that Travis ‘Swifty’ Kelce took out the team’s number 1 receiver Xavier Worthy after only a handful of plays.

The Chiefs, at the time of writing, are being coy about the severity of his injury, some reports are for the year while others are week to week.

If it is a year-long injury, Browns’ upside is huge.

Pair this with the fact that they won’t have Rashee Rice for the next 5 games, and it becomes abundantly clear that Brown is going to eat in this new Chiefs offense.

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Zay Flowers ($11.77m, Baltimore Ravens WR, -9 BE)

Flowers absolutely balled out in this game.

He made it known to the crowd that he was around for this game, unlike last year when he missed the AFC championship game.

With a chip on his shoulder, Flowers led the team with 9 targets and 7 receptions, far outpacing any other player on this potent Ravens team to the tune of 143 yards and 1 touchdown.

Lamar only had 19 passing attempts and 14 completions, half of which were to Flowers!

The guy is going to get targeted all season as long as he can stay healthy.

The breakeven screams big money making!

Couple that with the fact that Mark Andrews isn’t the safety net he once was, and the only other healthy competition is an ageing Deandre Hopkins, who could be in his final season, and the ever inconsistent Rashod Bateman, expect Flowers to have another big game and further push his case for a big cash grab.

He’s owned by only 6.1% of teams and could be a huge POD going forward. 

I like Flowers more than say a Keon Coleman, who is a similar price and produced a similar stat line in the same game as Flowers.

Buffalo traditionally spreads the ball around more and has more mouths to feed.

Invest that bit extra and go for Flowers.

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Emeka Egbuka ($4.45m, Tampa Bay WR, -27BE)

I said it on the SC Playbook NFL podcast last week: this guy is going to play the Godwin role and be a beast.

What does he go and do?

Stand out as the best rookie receiver thus far (overreaction much?) and call his number for the go-ahead game-winning touchdown.

Egbuka finished with 6 targets and 4 receptions for 67 yards and 2 TD’s. 

I will say this, Egbuka is owned by more than 50% of coaches, but there’s a reason why.

He’s going to make you bucket loads of cash.

My thinking here is keep riding the wave like the rest of us, and then down the line let’s look at the impact Godwin’s return has with Egbukas production.

I’m of the thinking he may be a hold all season however, if he generates enough cash and gives me the ability to move up and take a clear cut number 1 beast, then I’ll be crying his praises. 

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JJ McCarthy ($3.7m, Minnesota Vikings QB, -33 BE)

At halftime, you could be forgiven for thinking this dude was a bust and being salty that you picked him on your bench.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man. In the 4th quarter, JJ stepped up to throw for 2 TD’s and run for another one.

He put the team on his back and produced.

It’s the dream start here for the new guy in Minnesota. 

The yardage might not look ideal at only 143 passing yards, but he got 3 TD’s, so I’m not complaining whatsoever.

McCarthy isn’t ever going to be a starter for me, I don’t think, maybe in a bye week.

What he will be though, is a guy generating cash at the most important position in the game who, hopefully, will keep producing, allowing me to eventually trade him for a top-tier RB or WR later in the season. 

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Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($3.7m, Washington Commanders RB, -15 BE)

The rookie has come out of absolutely nowhere.

Well, in my eyes he has.

When Washington traded Brian Robinson Jr. I had a sneaky suspicion this guy was going to be an intriguing prospect.

I’m including the rookie in here as a POD rookie RB, as most people seem to have the big 3 in Jeanty, Hampton, and Henderson 

JCM had 10 rushes for 82 yards with a longest rushing attempt of 42 yards, and he ran for 1 TD.

Not bad stats for a guy in his first NFL game.

My main concern is that the QB he’s playing with is known as one of, if not the best rushing QB in the entire league.

Scoring 28 points in his first week and having that extremely low break-even even does put some of those worries to bed.

He was owned by only 2% of teams in week 1, so if you want a proper PO,D he could be your man. 

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Harold Fannin Jr. ($3.7m, Cleveland Browns TE, -6 BE)

The Browns are high on this guy, and so am I.

Harold is the ultimate POD at the TE position in my opinion.

Flacco is the QB and seems as though that won’t change for a while, and one thing he loves is a TE.

When winning comeback player of the year 2 seasons ago, Flacco went on a stretch that had starting TE David Njoku finish as one of the top Fantasy TE’s in the league.

Fannin Jr. was out there for 55 snaps, which was the 4th most amongst WR and TE’s on the team.

He turned that into 9 targets and 7 catches for 63 yards on 31 routes run.

Just over 1 in 3 of his routes he was targeted.

This team truly stinks and is a basket case of an organisation, but one thing is for sure, if they have a single bright spot on the team, like a Myles Garrett, they are going to do anything and everything to showcase their shiny toy to the world.

Watch Fannin eat.

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Hold

AJ Brown ($16.59m, Philadelphia Eagles WR, 53 BE)

Arguably the most disappointing player of the round.

With only a 6% ownership rate, despite being one of the premier receivers in the league, perhaps people didn’t truly appreciate how bad this performance was, but I don’t think it’s all on AJ.

The problem with a Philly receiver, you could probably include Devonta Smith in here too, is that Hurts is such a good runner of the ball.

He’s also got the freakish talents of Saquon Barkley to aid him, and when he gets going, why stop him? 

This is the reality of being an AJ owner.

You can have some 100-yard 3-touchdown games, or you can have games with 1 or no receptions.

If you’re going to have him in your team, be prepared for this, it’s the risk you take.

Just don’t give up on him too early.

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Ja’Marr Chase ($23.58m, Cincinnati Bengals WR, 72 BE)

I actually can’t believe I’m writing about Chase being anything but a buy.

He is the best receiver in the game and the consensus number 1 draft player this season.

The Bengals are quite possibly the slowest starters in the league; they lost to the Patriots in the first week last season.

Chase is a pick-and-stick type player.

For me, if I were to put it into NRL terms, he’s my Payne Haas or my Nathan Cleary.

I’m picking and sticking with him for the season because the good far outweighs the bad.

The high BE is annoying, but he did start last year with an 18 and an 11, followed by a 53.

He also had scores of 72 and 99 against Baltimore, who are widely considered one of the best defences in the league.

Keep him, hold him, squeeze him tight.

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Matthew Golden ($4.35m, Green Bay Packers WR, 10 BE) 

I harped on about how this guy was reportedly the clear-cut number 1 in Green Bay this pre-season.

The weekend wasn’t the greatest start, but it’s only week 1!

He’s a cheapie first-round rookie that’s playing for a Super Bowl contender; they’re going to find a way to use him.

A small BE, all things considered, expect a bounce back from Golden.

Reed loves to get off to a hot start for the Packers and fade away by the end of the season.

Expect that to happen again. Almost count on it happening.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay, so don’t fret too much.

Also, consider the fact that Detroit had no answers to the new look Micah Parsons led Packers defence, who ended up just toying with Goff and the Lions Offense.

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Cam Ward ($4.7m, Tenesse Titans QB, 12 BE)

I told you JJ, you’ve now made your bed, it’s time for you to stay tucked in and enjoy it.

Ward played against arguably the best defence in the NFL, talk about a baptism of fire.

I understand people wanting to jump ship to JJ, but why burn a trade when more likely than not this guy is gonna make you cash.

Also, he shouldn’t be contributing to your score, so don’t bother wasting time on it.

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Jahmyr Gibbs ($23.19m, Detroit Lions Rb, 58 BE) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($17.99m, Detroit Lions WR, 47 BE) 

They’re on the same team, and they’re 2 of the best in the business at their respective positions.

I’m seeing a lot of panic, particularly at the RB position, with coaches swapping from Gibbs to Henry.

I’d be lying if I said I haven’t thought of doing the same, but at this time, I choose not to be a sheep that goes with the herd, but rather put myself out there and stroll away from the pack. 

Gibbs had 9 carries for 19 yards (not great) and 10 targets with 10 receptions for 31 yards.

That’s the lowest yardage in NFL history for someone with 10 catches in a game.

But guess what? I don’t care about that.

That’s double-digit points off catches alone.

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In the coming weeks, they face the Bears, Ravens, Browns, Bengals, and Chiefs.

At least 3 of those teams we know don’t have the greatest of defences, and you could argue the Ravens and Chiefs have regressed, so expect Gibbs to break off a 50-yard run or 2 for a touchdown in at least one of those games. 

St. Brown will, of course, be around for these games too, pending injury.

He’s Goff’s safety net and loves a high-volume game.

He still had 6 targets on the weekend with 4 receptions and 45 yards.

I’m not concerned, he too is a premium receiver in the league and will fight back without a doubt to end up as a top 5 receiver on the year in my opinion. 

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Ravens D/ST ($8.08m, Baltimore Defence, 33 BE)

Hold them this week.

They played the reigning MVP and ended up with -6 points in what will most likely go down as the game of the year.

This week, the Ravens look towards a game against division rivals and contenders for the number 1 pick in the draft, the Cleveland Browns.

Expect Flacco to come out throwing bombs against the team he won a Super Bowl for, but also expect plenty of sacks and a few INTs sprinkled in.

Coach Harbaugh isn’t going to take the week 1 loss lightly, so expect the Browns to be on the receiving end of a hiding.

Let’s reconvene next week on whether we keep them or not after that though.

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Sell

Tyreek Hill ($12.23m, Miami Dolphins WR, 29 BE)

No one can truly know how happy I was to see this bloke do so badly after fellow podcast panelist Eden Richards had him as his sleeper for WR this year.

Hill has been one of the best players in this league for the last few years, there’s no denying that, but he isn’t that guy anymore. 

Hill is on the wrong side of 30 and wasn’t seen around pre-season often, and now he isn’t being seen around team facilities.

Rumours are swirling everywhere that he’s going to be traded, but Miami isn’t taking the call!

It keeps being said that trouble is brewing in Miami.

News flash, it’s already here, and it’s centred around this star player.

My other concern is the guy throwing him the ball, Tua, is almost guaranteed to miss at least 4 games a year due to concussions.

We hate to see it, but that’s just how it goes.

His WR2 Waddle has also been often injured over the last 2 seasons, which doesn’t help Hill’s production, as teams don’t have to worry about 2 talented receivers.

At one point in time this was the most potent offense in the league.

The band’s now about to be split up, and Miami once again are in rebuild mode.

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Tank Bigsby ($10.07m, Philadelphia Eagles RB, 32 BE)

The former Jag has been shipped to Philly!

All the chatter in pre season coming out of Jacksonville was that Liam Coen bwould ench Etienne in favour of last year’s standout cheapie Bigsby and give him the keys to the backfield?

Well we got our answer in the biggest way possible in the form of a trade.

Out of every situation to go to, this is probably the worst one.

Bigsby will hardly see the field in Philly, and why should he?

He’s stacked behind the best RB in football, in Saquon Barkley, and will likely only get meaningful carries if the team is in a blowout lead.

Somehow, he’s owned by 3% of coaches, which is crazy.

How he hasn’t been offloaded by every team yet is beyond me. 

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Xavier Worthy ($11.5m, Kansas City Chiefs WR, 19 BE)

Pending health, this is a no-brainer.

Unless you’re confident in your bench players coming in and performing, and happy to not make money on a playe,r I’d be smashing the trade button harder than Kelce hit this speedy receiver.

As I mentioned above for Brown, the Chiefs are being weird with this one.

It’s giving 49ers CMC calf injury she’ll be right circa 2024, be scared.

Trade him for Brown if you’re high on the Chiefs, but eject on Worthy.

See you next season champion.

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George Kittle ($15.53m, San Fran 49ers TE, 31 BE) 

Another injury trade here, IF you need to.

If you were someone who had Tyler Warren on your bench, I’d consider holding Kittle and starting Warren.

However, if you don’t have that luxury, get him out of there.

Kittle is one of the top 3 TE’s in terms of price in the league and chewing up valuable cash on your team.

He’s not getting any younger, and a hamstring injury is the classic old man injury that I suspect could haunt him more often than not.

Purdy is also out injured, and Kittle would’ve had Mac Jones throwing to him (yikes).

I don’t think there are any questions about keeping him if he’s healthy, seeing as though so many of their weapons are out however, you’re doing yourself a disservice keeping him and not investing in other players out there.

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Kenneth Walker ($16.67m, Seattle Seahwaks RB, 49 BE)

Call me a hater, but I’ve never been a huge fan of Walker.

He’s burnt me in draft too often and seems to always be playing with some sort of injury.

When he’s on, he’s on, but in a format where player longevity is going to be the key to success, you can’t trust him. 

Veteran backup Zach Charbonnet led the team in carries with 12 as opposed to Walker’s 10 and had 27 more yards as well as a TD.

Walker will still be in play for the passing downs, but there’s a shift happening in Seattle; they’re moving back to a committee backfield, and at that price, you won’t be seeing Walker anywhere near my team.   

Trade Plans

My current trade plans… nothing.

The only thing that’s tempting me is Gibbs to Henry, but I know better than that.

I want to maximise trades when it comes to bye weeks, so I could be in for a few interesting weeks, but if it pans out in the long run, I’ll be laughing