Data dive: What’s the NFL Supercoach version of base stats?

A huge Week 1 is in the books!

It was awesome to have football back, despite my Ravens losing a game that only they could lose, and then personally throwing up an abysmal score in the first ever week of NFL Supercoach.

I made the classic Week 1 mistake of overthinking it and captaining Ja’Marr Chase instead of one of the stud QBs, and boy did it come back to bite me.

Despite that, I’m feeling pretty good about the way my roster is constructed. Onwards and upwards from here!

As we move forward into the cadence of the regular season, my weekly column is going to bounce around a bit based on what I’m watching/reading/listening to in the wider NFL fantasy streets.

It’ll be part strategy, part trade talk, and usually have an analytical or stats-driven lens to it.

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First point I want to hit on today – don’t overreact to week 1 results.

This is something that I know I’ve been guilty of in NFL fantasy on countless occasions. We spend the entire off-season listening to podcasts, studying the stats, doing mock drafts and identifying the guys we want. And then week 1 comes, a guy we were in on has 10 runs for 27 yards and no TDs, and we lose our collective minds.

It’s imperative to try to resist the temptation to rage trade, particularly in NFL Supercoach where the number of transactions we’re allowed to make literally have a cap.

Variance is always high in Week 1, and defences typically always have the upper hand as offenses find their rhythm.

There are two different lenses that I would be trying to view potential trades through, and I’d encourage you to think critically about what’s really driving your decision.

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Is it a results-based trade, where the guy’s role was as expected, but he just scored poorly. I’m thinking here about guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr, Nico Collins.

They were out there for all the snaps, they still have the same QB throwing them the ball, and nothing structurally has changed about the offenses they play in that should mean they continue to score poorly. Write it off as a one-off bad game, which is going to happen, and stick solid.

On the other hand, there are structure or role-based trades, and these are the ones I would be considering.

What I mean specifically, are players who you expected to have a lion’s share of snaps, targets or carries, who it turns out are actually in time shares.

Or the positive inverse of that. A great example is Isaiah Pacheco, who was expected to dominate running back snaps and touches in Kansas City, but ended up only being on the field for 50% of the snaps, and getting 50% of the running back touches in an even split with Kareem Hunt, with 3^rd RB Brashard Smith getting on the field as well.

He’s an easy swap to a surprise packet like Travis Etienne who dominated the work for the Jags, and looked great doing it. And his team then promptly traded one of the guys he was competing with for touches.

This leads us nicely into our main topic for this week:

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What’s the NFLSC version of base stats?

One of the big differences between NRL Supercoach and the NFL version is the absence of what you could traditionally view as ‘base stats’.

In NRLSC, we’re able to predict with a pretty high level of certainty a base level of performance for players, particularly in the forwards. This is because guys can actively seek out work for themselves through their work rate in defence, and through the amount of hit-ups they’re willing to take.

You’ll see some spikes in these numbers from time to time, but typically, if a guy averages 25 tackles and 15 hit-ups a week, he’s going to live pretty close to that range the majority of the time. The power and attacking stats are then the gravy on top.

In the NFL, it’s almost all gravy. Apart from quarterbacks, NFL players don’t have the ability to generate their own work rates. Whether they accumulate stats is dependent on a number of factors that are out of their control; whether they’re on the field, whether the offensive play-caller designs the play to go to them, and then ultimately, whether the QB gives them the ball.

Yes, the better players are naturally going to be schemed the ball more. But they can’t go and grab it from the center themselves. So, to find those indicators of consistency that we need, we have to dig deeper.

There are some stats and advanced metrics that we can use as our version of base stats. These are not going to be perfect cause-and-effect indicators, but typically, better performance on these fronts will drive consistently better outcomes over a larger sample size.

I’ll outline them here by position and then identify some guys that look like they could be overperformers or underperformers based on their week 1 usage.

Note here: I’m only going to be touching on guys whose roles looked different to what we expected. For example, we expected CMC to play all the snaps and get an enormous workload, and he did. He is who we thought he was. I’m only going to dig into players who we may need to look at differently moving forward.

Note #2: these stats I’ll reference can be found in a multitude of places now, some subscription-protected, some not. I won’t recommend a specific one, but jump on Google and you should be able to source them if you want to dig deeper.

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Quarterbacks

I won’t go into huge detail on QBs, because as I mentioned above, it is the one position in football that controls their own workload.

They have the ability to change the play at will, and to hold the ball and run when they see fit.

Much of the consistency at QB is really driven by talent – how good are you, and how good is the talent around you.

Hence why we see the same names rising to the top at this position year after year. However, there are a couple of things we can look for once you get below the top-tier players:

Rushing Yards & TDs – Players who are able to generate fantasy points with their legs have a level of consistency the traditional pocket passers just can’t match.

Pass Rate Over Expected – How much does an offense throw the ball versus run the ball compared to average, filtering out things like score differential, down and distance etc. Offenses with higher PROEs are much more QB friendly.

You Have My Attention

Justin Herbert (19.75m, 1.1% owned)

The Chargers operated at a whopping 15% PROE in week 1, miles clear of the next closest team in the Chiefs at 10%. This was a very promising development from a Chargers team that typically has looked to pound the rock.

Herbert also rushed for 32 yards and designed QB runs looked to be more of a focus. More QB rush attempts + higher pass rate = potential fantasy breakout for Herbert.

Drake Maye (18.07m, 1.9% owned)

Many expected the Pats to lean super run heavy with the return of HC Mike Vrabel, but the Pats threw it 77% of the time on Sunday, third highest in week 1, and at almost 10% PROE.

Maye didn’t run much in this one, but we know that’s a big strength of his game. The Pats could be ready to let the 2^nd year QB loose.

I Have Some Concerns

There’s no one that’s SC relevant in terms of ownership that I have major concerns on coming out of Week 1. I’d maybe keep an eye on Cam Ward and the Titans, who operated at -3.6% PROE and did not make the QB rushing game a focus.

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Running Backs

What we’re looking for with running backs is pretty simple – opportunity typically leads to points. As such, there’s a few stats we should be tracking:

Snap Percentage: how often are they on the field

% of RB Carries: how big a slice of the rushing pie are they getting

% of Routes: when the QB drops back to pass, how often are they running a route

You Have My Attention

Jonathan Taylor (19.7m, 5% owned)

Played 73% of the total snaps but played EVERY SINGLE SNAP in the first half while the game was still close. Those numbers just don’t happen in the year of our lord 2025. Also ran a route on 73% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks.

Bucky Irving (14.97m, 13% owned)

Played 77% of the total snaps, got 78% of the rushing attempts, and ran a route on 57% of Michael Penix’s dropbacks. The snap rate was the highest of his career and Irving is as close to a bellcow as it gets in today’s NFL.

Chase Brown (16.6m, 12% owned)

Played 73% of the snaps, but got ONE HUNDRED PERCENT of the running back carries. That’ll work pretty nicely. Only thing holding him back from being a full-blown buy is his 45% routes run rate, where he is still losing work to Samaje Perine.

Travis Etienne (8.64m, 3% owned)

This backfield was expected to be a muddy mess, but as hinted at in the intro, Travis Etienne emerged as the unquestioned leader with 62% of the snaps, 57% of the rushing attempts and routes on 45% of T-Law dropbacks.

These numbers could rise after the trade of Tank Bigsby. He’s big value at his price and could be a nice pivot from an underperforming cow.

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Javonte Williams (8.78m, 2% owned)

Expectations were low for the Cowboys RB room, but Javonte Williams looked closer to his rookie self and consolidated work with 80% of snaps, 71% of rush attempts and a route on 77% of Dak dropbacks.

It helps that his main competition in Miles Sanders had an awful fumble and the rookie Jaydon Blue wasn’t even active on gameday.

Rookie Watch: Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton were the workload monsters that we expected. TreVeyon Henderson only played 34% of the snaps, but the Patriots actively schemed him the ball and that participation rate should rise quickly.

I Have Some Concerns

Pacheco is the main guy at over 10% ownership that I would have concerns with and be trying to move on from, but I covered him above. The others I’d be worried about would be two of the rookies:

RJ Harvey (3.75m, 17% ownership)

Was talked up as a Sean Payton favorite during the off-season, but only got on the field for 31% of snaps, got 23% of rushing work, and ran a route on 33% of dropbacks. H

e’s behind someone called ‘Tyler Badie’ for the receiving work, and JK Dobbins dominated the rushing touches. He’s going to be a slow burn and I think it’s fine to switch to one of the other rookies or upgrade to an Etienne or Javonte Williams if you have the cash.

Kaleb Johnson (3.7m, 5% ownership)

This one’s pretty simple – he played 2 snaps. He’s going to be a really slow burn and I’d be looking to cut bait immediately.

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Wide Receivers

For our pass catchers, it’s about how often they’re on the field, and then how good are they at earning targets when they’re out there.

Snap Percentage: how often are they on the field

% of Routes: when the QB drops back to pass, how often are they running a route

% of Team Targets: how big a slice of the QB’s throw attempts come in their direction. For context, 35% led the league last season, 25% was a top 20 WR, 19% was top 50.

You Have My Attention

Puka Nacua (17.86m, 12% owned)

Missed a bunch of snaps during the game with a cut to his eye, but somehow still managed to rack up a 41% share of his team’s targets while only being able to run 69% of the routes. He’s a monster.

Drake London (15.95m, 27% owned)

Continued his late season rapport with Michael Penix. Missed some snaps late with a shoulder injury but still earned a whopping 15 targets and a 36% target share. 

Garrett Wilson (13.95m, 2% owned)

Ran a route on every single dropback and got a massive 44% of the targets from Justin Fields. With the Jets offense looking functional, Wilson could go off.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (13.88m, 7% owned)

This one might be the eye-opening stat of the week. Ran 88% of the routes but earned an unheard of 59% (!!!) of targets. Let that one sink in. For context, Malik Nabers led the league last year with a 35% target share across the season.

Zay Flowers (11.77m, 6% owned)

Ran 100% of the routes and hoovered up 50% of the throws from Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are likely to spread the ball around more as we move forward, but Flowers looked to be the go-to guy in what was a massive game.

Ricky Pearsall (11.35m, 3% owned) and Hollywood Brown (7.26m, 1% owned)

Grouping these two together as, due to injuries around them, all of a sudden they are looking like the unquestioned #1 receivers on their squads. Brown got 40% of the team targets last week. Pearsall got 20%, but many of them were big plays. Could go huge over the next month.

Keon Coleman (9.41m, 6% owned)

Looked like Josh Allen’s new safety blanket as the Bills launched their furious 4^th quarter comeback. Ran routes on 94% of dropbacks and secured 26% of targets, both of which led the Bills. He’s a sneaky breakout candidate.

Rookie Watch: Tet McMillan ran 88% of routes and got 27% of the targets. He’s a stud. Emeka Egbuka ran almost every route, got 21% of targets and scored twice. Arrows up. Travis Hunter ran two thirds of the routes and led his team in targets.Worth having.

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I Have My Concerns

Matthew Golden ($4.35m, 44% owned)

Whispers about Golden immediately grabbing the Packers #1 WR job were unfounded as Matt LaFleur stuck to his patented WR by committee approach. Golden ran 57% of the routes and only earned a 9% target share. Those numbers should tick up but he could be a slow burn.

NOTE: I wrote all of that before the TNF game where Jayden Reed broke his collarbone. Golden made 0 catches but was inches away from scoring 2 TDs and I’d expect his routes to rise immediately with Reed out.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (17.99m, 24% owned)

This might be controversial, but I have some nagging worries about the Sun God. He was out there for the full allotment of routes, but he only snagged 14% of the targets. For context, last year he was at 27%.

There’s a new offensive co-ordinator in town, he has huge competition for targets, and there’s a bunch of alpha receivers at a very similar price to Amon-Ra. Not a must trade by any means after one week of data, but I will be monitoring.

AJ Brown (16.59m, 6% owned)

Big caveats on one-week sample size here, but I believe there are some structural issues here which could combine to dampen AJB’s weekly output. He ran 97% of the routes in the opener but earned a measly 5% of the targets.

That will rebound, but the Eagles also looked to be leaning very run heavy, which caps the ceiling for all of their pass catchers.

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Tight Ends

Same indicators here as for the wide receivers:

Snap Percentage: how often are they on the field

% of Routes: when the QB drops back to pass, how often are they running a route

% of Team Targets: how big a slice of the QB’s throw attempts come in their direction. For context, 29% led the league last season, 19% was a top 10 TE, 15% was top 20.

You Have My Attention

Juwan Johnson (7.61m, 0.7% owned)

Got a nice contract extension over the off-season and came out in week 1 and ran an unheard of for a tight-end 96% of the routes and grabbed a 27% target share. Only Trey McBride was close to that level of utilization. Could be a super POD.

Harold Fannin (3.7m, 0.2% owned)

There’d been buzz about how much the Browns loved this guy during training camp, but I don’t think anyone expected them to unleash him like this. He ran 65% of the routes, and garnered a 22% target share, which was top 10 for tight ends on the week.

He lined up in the slot a bunch, and even got a snap as a wildcat QB! He’s in the mix right off the bat.

Kyle Pitts (8.36m, 7.6% owned)

He’s going to fool me again, isn’t he? Was at 81% of routes run in week 1, which was his highest rate since Week 7 last season. Also got a 22% target share, up from 14% across the 2024 season. He looked spry and is one who could surprise.

Rookie Watch: Tyler Warren is a monster. Already at 73% of routes and a 31% target share, which is insane for a rookie in his first game. Might be a top 5 fantasy tight end already.

I Have My Concerns

Colston Loveland (4.55m, 26% owned)

Only ran a route on 48% of dropbacks, taking a back seat to the incumbent in Cole Kmet, and got a measly 6% of the target share.

There’ll be better days ahead for the rookie, but there’s a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago and Ben Johnson isn’t going to rush him. I’d be pivoting to Tyler Warren immediately.

Travis Kelce (10.75m, 13% owned)

Ran a route on a solid 81% of dropbacks, but only got a 9% target share. Still scored OK due to the TD, but my major concern here is that if he’s getting less than 10% of balls thrown his way in a game where there’s no Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy gets taken out in the first quarter, what’s it going to look like with those guys competing for targets? I just don’t see the upside.

Mark Andrews (12.54m, 6% owned)

Similar argument here for Andrews. Ran a route on 73% of plays and only got 6% of the targets. Keeping in mind this was in a shootout game and his TE competition Isaiah Likely was missing with injury. He’s going to be back as soon as next week. There’s too many other viable options.

The injured list: George Kittle and Evan Engram are both down for solid stints and can be traded. Brock Bowers is one to keep an eye on, as he’s missed practice both Thursday and Friday this week and looks iffy to play in Week 2.