EPL Supercoach Week 5 | Is this the week to trade?

You know that feeling when your brain tells you one thing, but your finger hovers over the trade button anyway?

Welcome to my week.

The data screams “hold”, the fixtures whisper “wait”, but Odegaard keeps bleeding points, and that Liverpool match-up is looking mighty tempting.

Let me walk you through why patience is the play this week – even if I can’t follow my own advice.

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The Numbers Don’t Lie: It’s a Low-Scoring Week

Before each gameweek, I dive into market odds for teams expected to score (shoutout to robtfpl on X).

My benchmark?

Teams predicted to score more than 1.6 goals – they’re your captaincy targets and transfer magnets.

Similarly, defenders from teams with >35% clean sheet probability get the nod.

This approach has been money so far:

• 24 teams predicted to score 1.6+ goals in the first four weeks
• 18 actually scored (75% hit rate)
• 12 predicted clean sheets, 9 delivered (75% again)

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Here’s the kicker: We usually see 6 teams expected to score well each week.

This week?

Just 4 teams, with only Liverpool significantly high.

For clean sheets, we’re down to 2 teams (Liverpool and Villa) versus the usual 3.

Translation: We’re staring down a weekend of coin-flip matches.

Bournemouth vs Newcastle?

Sunderland vs Villa?

Wolves vs Leeds?

Good luck picking winners there.

With Arsenal vs City, United vs Chelsea, and Brighton vs Spurs all looking tight, Liverpool’s the only team you can back with real confidence.

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The Fixture Swing Is Coming

Look at these runs from GW6-10:

City: BUR (h), BRE (a), EVE (h), AVL (a), BOU (h)

Arsenal: NEW (a), WHU (h), FUL (a), CRY (h), BUR (a)

Spurs: WOL (h), LEE (a), AVL (h), EVE (a), CHE (h)

I think about the Premier League in fixture “blocks” – 5 or 6 week windows where you ride players through their purple patches.

We’re approaching a massive block for City and Arsenal assets.

The smart play?

Load up next week when their runs begin properly, not this week against each other.

Think of it this way: Why burn a trade bringing in Haaland or Gyokeres for a tough fixture when you can grab them next week for the start of their actual feast?

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Where Are the Money Makers?

Oscar’s breakeven article was brilliant in highlighting the opportunity, but it poses the question – who’s genuinely going to make you cash?

Ballard if he’s back?

Dewsbury-Hall for those still without?

My boy Diouf?

Half those other names required a Google search.

Next week’s different.

Simons and Woltermade hit their third match threshold.

Salah continues his price slide, becoming increasingly attractive for those who sold early.

The cheapies are primed for price rises, the premiums become accessible – that’s when you strike.

This week?

You’re trading sideways at best, potentially burning a valuable trade before the real opportunities emerge.

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So Why Am I Ignoring My Own Advice?

Here’s where it gets interesting.

I strongly believe in everything above.

The logical play is holding. But…

Trading is fun.

There, I said it.

We’re not robots optimising algorithms – we’re here for the dopamine hit of a successful trade paying off immediately.

I have no Liverpool players.

Who else am I captaining this week?

The armband options are dire without Salah, VVD, or even Gakpo.

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Odegaard keeps costing me points.

Every week I hold, thinking “surely this is the week”, and every week he finds new ways to disappoint.

The definition of insanity?

Doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Thiago didn’t make the bench for Brentford’s EFL Cup match against Villa.

No official word yet, but that’s concerning enough to consider alternatives before a price drop.

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The Strategic Takeaway

The smart play this week is patience.

Save your trade, avoid the low-scoring lottery, and position yourself for the fixture swing coming in GW6.

Next week offers better cheapies, better fixtures, and better clarity on form.

But SuperCoach isn’t just about optimisation – it’s about enjoyment.

If that trade button is calling your name, if you’re staring at a captaincy disaster without Liverpool coverage, sometimes you’ve got to scratch the itch.

Just know you’re trading with your heart, not your head.

Me? I’ll probably cave by Friday.

That Salah captain option is looking too good, and Odegaard’s got to go.

Do as I say, not as I do.

Your play: Hold if you can, especially if you’ve got Liverpool coverage.

But if you’re trading, at least target players who’ll benefit from the GW6+ fixture swing.

Think long-term gain, not short-term sideways moves.