NRL Finals Week 3 Teams: Supercoach Squad Analysis

Paul Alamoti stood tall in one of the great Supercoach finals performances to define the round, and likely the overall title winner.

You’d have to imagine the eventual winner took a punt on the Penrith winger for his 191-point haul, while there’s every chance they’ll have captained him this week too.

It showed that with just four weeks to differentiate from rivals, nailing a punt or two will decide those who soar towards the pointy end of the rankings.

This week will be no different, and jagging this week’s Alamoti (okay, maybe not 191 points worth) will prove pivotal in the title race.

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The Cooma Stallions had another promising week with 927 points to sit in 5k overall.

While I’d need a few big things to go my way, I’m in touching distance of a big finish, so I’ll be looking at a few left-field options this week to differentiate from rivals.

I was extremely keen all week on Jacob Preston, who erupted with 131 points against the Panthers.

He was in my flex position up until 6:50pm on Saturday night when Ethan Strange was replaced by Simi Sasagi.

I held onto Hudson Young and brought Nicho Hynes, who delivered with 119 points.

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That’s the joy of Supercoach finals, one per position (plus flex) makes it extremely hard to get them all!

It didn’t cost me too badly at all, but every point counts in such a small contest.

This week, there are just two games, meaning we can select a maximum of three players per team.

Once again, I’ll focus the below a little more on which players have the best match-ups based on the weaker defensive areas of teams.

Let’s take a look at NRL Supercoach finals week three, with squad lists courtesy of Fox Sports.

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STORM v SHARKS

Friday, 7:50pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Ativalu Lisati 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Shawn Blore 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves: 18. Bronson Garlick 19. Grant Anderson 20. Joe Chan 21. Jonah Pezet 22. Sualauvi Faalogo

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicholas Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Billy Burns 12. Teig Wilton 13. Jesse Colquhoun

Bench: 14. Briton Nikora 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Thomas Hazelton 22. Hohepa Puru

Analysis: Melbourne enters this clash as fairly warm favourites in a tricky match to predict.

The Storm have the potential to light up and blow the scoreline out somewhat, but they’re up against an in-form Sharks outfit that may cause a few surprises.

In the battle of the hookers, I like Harry Grant to shine with his class and edge out Blayke Brailey as the top-scoring No.9.

Supercoaches are currently flocking to Brailey at 61% ownership.

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The Sharks concede 48% of tries down their right edge compared to 31% on their left.

Rivals typically tend to focus the attack around getting at Nicho Hynes.

This brings Melbourne’s left edge into the equation, namely Cameron Munster.

It’s a wide-open week for fullbacks with Dylan Edwards and Reece Walsh combining for 72% of selections, but don’t forget Lil Ryan Papenhuyzen with a home fixture off a lengthy spell.

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The Storm’s right edge is significantly weaker, conceding 47% of all tries, compared to 39% on the left.

This aligns with Cronulla’s better attacking edge on the left, which scores 47% of their tries.

As per last week, this brings into contention KL Iro and Ronaldo Mulitalo, who again look like quality plays to me.

Iro in particular, as he’ll get through a mountain of work and as a result has a higher floor, if the Sharks are put to the sword, Mulitalo could go very low.

Eli Katoa will be hugely popular again, especially with partner in crime Jahrome Hughes firming to return from injury.

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BRONCOS v PANTHERS

Sunday, 4:05pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Tyson Smoothy

Bench: 14. Ezra Mam 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Xavier Willison 17. Ben Talty

Reserves: 18. Jesse Arthars 19. Jack Gosiewski 20. Selwyn Cobbo 21. Jaiyden Hunt 22. Jock Madden

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Paul Alamoti 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Isaiah Papali’i 17. Luke Garner

Reserves: 18. Daine Laurie 19. Matthew Eisenhuth 20. Thomas Jenkins 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Luke Sommerton

Analysis: This fixture promises to be a cracker with two extremely contrasting styles of play.

The calculated, experienced unit of the Panthers start narrow favourites against the flamboyant Broncos outfit fresh from a week off and back at home at Suncorp.

Brisbane have opted to replace the injured Billy Walters with Adam Reynolds in the halves, with Ezra Mam to play off the bench.

Tyson Smoothy will start at lock in place of the suspended Pat Carrigan.

Dylan Edwards is currently owned by 44% of Supercoaches – although I feel ownership stats are very skewed in SC Finals, with no ability to filter into top-ranked teams – while Reece Walsh is at 28%.

While Edwards is Mr. Reliable, I find it extremely hard to go past Walsh in his sublime form.

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Penrith’s weaker defensive edge is on their left, namely Blaize Talagi, who was torn apart by Jacob Preston on the weekend.

Jordan Riki gets this match-up this week and is a sneaky POD play.

He’s never been overly Supercoach relevant and there’d be risk involved, but I suspect the Broncos will send plenty of attack through him at the rookie Penrith half.

To his credit, in extra minutes against the Raiders, he did amass a huge 46 tackles and 17 runs.

Kotoni Staggs is the other one that I feel could come into his own as Brisbane will look to get him one-on-one with Talagi.

His output has increased across the season, and he’s another POD play that I quite like.

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Statistically, Brisbane aren’t particularly weak on any one side, but the eye test to me says that their left is the softer point.

Despite this, Penrith’s stronger attacking edge is their left, however, Paul Alamoti did score a hat-trick down the right last week.

Alamoti could be set to star again this week if it is this corridor they zero in on.

Big game champion Brian To’o is the safe option with his huge workrate, fresh off a 130 point special against the Dogs.