Final Word Week 9 | Supercoach EPL trades, captains, PODs

Hopefully you’re enjoying the re-build of the Bolywood Bhoys week on week as we plot our route back into the top 10k – up from 19k after GW4 to 13k – my role as the tinker-man could make us up ground yet.

It’s a long season players!

All our trades from last week hit with van Hecke scoring an 11 all on the back of base-stats and not keeping a clean sheet against Newcastle, Rice scoring a 6 with a -2 for turnovers and Nico Gonzalez picking up an 8 and looking to have locked down his starting spot with Rodri cast aside.

Close watch on whether that changes but has a break-even of 0 next week and hopefully can build some value for us with fixtures against Villa & Bournemouth coming up before Liverpool visit the Etihad.

Some monster scores with Reece James, Mateta, Haaland, Welbeck, Walker & Gabriel all fairly well owned.

Add the Spurs midfield and Harry Maguire’s winner against Liverpool – it was a left-field weekend that sums up this game so well.

As always – I will point you to the work of Harry West on cracking the code to pricing and breakevens here for a warning at some of the most traded-in this weekend.

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All Chelsea’s big scorers with the exception of Cucurella are an avoid for me at the moment – that includes Acheampong, Neto, James and Robert Sanchez.

The Break-evens are tasty but your trust in them as footballers is the more important thing – I have little in the former three’s ability to hold onto their place in the team and build value long-term & Sanchez I think could come under threat of losing his spot at some stage this season as well given the start to the campaign.

For my side the question marks hang over the midfield and attack… Namely in the form of Reijnders, Simons and Salah.

People continue to ditch Joao Pedro but he was unlucky not to score this weekend and I think has to turn given the run Chelsea have and the fact he’s still their locked down centre-forward.

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Salah is the most worrying case – the United game typified the reasons he’s not been as effective this season in a Liverpool team that is beginning to plan for life without him and whether intentionally or not are not feeding him the ball as regularly.

Something that struck me while watching that game against United is how much the loss of Trent Alexander Arnold & more pressingly, lack of replacement due to Conor Bradley & Jeremie Frimpong’s loss of form entangled with their slow starts with injury this season.

He’s dropped about 2.3mil since I picked him up 4 weeks ago and I would probably be cutting my losses if there were more attractive options out there to replace him.

So, we head to the fixture where Liverpool’s is supposedly the easiest in the competition for the next 8 weeks with their visit to City the only game against a team higher than 8th – and that team is Sunderland who they face at home. A move to Cody Gakpo has crossed my mind –

The other option I’ve looked at is Morgan Rogers who was on the scoresheet against Spurs this weekend. Villa’s next 2 games? City (H), Liverpool (A).

Timing not right there despite the juicy breakeven.

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Danny Welbeck? I’m already 2 deep with Brighton’s pair of defenders, van Hecke & De Cuyper and Brighton go Utd (A), Leeds (H), Palace (A), Brentford (H), Forest (A).

You could talk me into it but I’m not quite there.

Simons has been disappointing and I’m really struggling to see how moving Pape Sarr out of that side has helped Tottenham (although I saw the writing on the wall and traded him), they looked toothless after scoring early against Villa over the weekend and Simons is responsible for a lot of their creative play – which I expected – hence moving for him.

The value options in midfield I think are likely to outplay him at the moment though are almost non-existent under 6.5mil but Spurs have a difficult run so it might be time to get creative.

I’m wary of Ugochukwu off the back of one big score.

Bentancur’s fitness is consistently a concern and they’re you’re looking at players like Florentino Luis in a Burnley team that will be inconsistent.

So it’ll have to be a double move this week to give me some wriggle room.

Reijnders has showed nothing since the opening week to suggest he’s going to return to the top of the point scorers so with him out as well we’re trying to hit a keeper for the rest of the season here alongside a cash cow that can give us a Sean Longstaff-esque 3-4 week run.

Let’s do a dive into the top range and cash cow options at this stage for midfielders who I’m teeing up for my double change this week…

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Gun – Options

Jarrod Bowen – I’ve consistently talked on the podcast that I like the fact he’s basically the only midfield classified player who’s being used as more-or-less an out and out striker because of West Ham’s lack of depth in that position.

The problem is that Fullkrug is a Nuno Espirito Santo type of player – I think he’ll return Bowen to the flank and West Ham having looked dreadful at providing their attacking players with any real opportunities to get at teams.

Their run may lure me in though – Leeds (A), Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), B’mouth (A). Season long keeper though?

I have my doubts.

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Bruno Guimaeres – I really like this guy and I think Newcastle are starting to move themselves into a bit of form with the Champions League win over Benfica this morning there seems a confidence about them they didn’t quite start the season with, not to mention they pushed Arsenal all the way at the end of September.

He’s their captain and I think he can sit around that 6-7 average with his team’s slight uptick in form because of the amount of ball he’ll have in attacking areas.

Not massive on base stats – but has recorded a key pass in each of his last 5 games and shots in the last 2.

If that continues (which it should against Fulham, West Ham & Brentford) then a big score is around the corner because goals and assists are due.

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Bruno Fernandes – Suddenly back in the top 10 traded ins off the back of United’s win over Liverpool and despite being a discarder earlier in the season I can understand why.

With the exception of the Brentford debacle he’s been outstanding with 2 goals an assist and 6 key passes in that period.

Maybe he doesn’t need to play further forward after all?

Moises Caicedo – With Bowen, one of the more expensive options which would mean a pay-off with our cashie.

He’s up to 23% ownership and you can understand why given his performances on both side of the ball and locked down spot in Chelsea’s team.

Their upcoming run is tasty too… (hence my reluctance to let go of Joao Pedro) – Sunderland (H), Spurs (A), Wolves (H), Burnley (A) – two promoted teams and one in Wolves who I expect to be relegated this season. That’s without scoring a goal himself outside the Liverpool game.

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Cashies

Lesley Ugochukwu  – Like many of these he’s unproven and likely only has a two-week turnaround time which if that’s your go – great – but Arsenal in the 2nd week means their ‘might’ be a third big score against Wolves at Molineux but that’s it.

I think there’s some guys out there at the moment that can score and build your squad value over the next month.

Mason Mount  – Without wanting to hold up a mirror into the past – this guy was one of the highest rated players in England in the early 2020s and would have been the 9th highest scorer in both 20-21 & 21-22.

Since then injury has hit and his run in the Manchester United team has never been consistent BUT… Now seemingly back to full health and playing in a similar (if not identical) system to the one used by Thomas Tuchel when he won player of the year for the Blues.

I’m not saying he’ll reach that level but can he thrive for the next month or two where United’s run looks fairly soft?

I think so.

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Ryan Christie – gee I like watching him – and at 4.9mil with a -1 break even heading into a clash with Nottingham Forest he’s very attractive in a Bournemouth side that are producing well enough.

If you go with Caicedo or Bowen as your gun – he’s the best option out there providing you have enough cash for both.

Nico Gonzalez – City’s run isn’t the prettiest for the next 3 weeks but he’s a rusted on starter with a Break Even of 0.

Even if he’s sitting on your bench he could be a nice little 2 week trade in.

Gameweek 9 Strategy

I’ve outlined my reasoning for the big moves in midfield and the reluctance to move either of my under-performing forwards.

Salah particularly is walking a very fine tight-rope.

If anyone has earned that leeway it’s him.

Midfield is the place to target PODs and that’s where we’re going.

As I write this on Wednesday ahead of the podcast record tomorrow – I’m leaning toward Guimares and Mount as the moves due to their runs and the fact I think I’ll need a season long keeper with the potential to explode.

I’m backing my ability to ID a guy who is showing signs he’s about to hit a real purple patch and re-discover his form of two seasons ago.

Similar thinking re: Mount, although we’re looking a bit further back in history for that proven Premier League record.

In terms of captaincy – Everton’s Monday morning kick-off against Spurs means we have a double shot.

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Haaland in the initial captaincy slot and we’ll take a proper flyer on Guimaraes for the VC spot on Saturday Night.

There’s half a thought about giving it to Joao Pedro but I need to see him hit the back of the net and even the one goal probably doesn’t see me take the armband off Haaland the following night.

Sunderland are playing better than most thought they would be at this stage of the season and that game’s a real banana skin for the Blues at Stamford Bridge.