EPL Supercoach | Elite vs Exposed, the Fixture-Adjusted Truth

Nine weeks in, raw stats are lying to you.

A team facing Burnley, West Ham, and Sunderland will look defensively solid.

Throw them against City and Liverpool?

Exposed. I’ve benchmarked every team’s npxG (expected goals) against opposition quality to separate overachievers from pretenders. 

• npxG measures attacking threat – high is good 
• npxG Allowed measures defensive vulnerability – low is good 
• The +/- column shows who’s genuinely elite versus who’s riding an easy run
• Fixtures shows the average npxG of their next six opponents – tells you if the run gets easier or harder

The Attackers

The Real Deal

Crystal Palace

That +5.0 difference shows elite chance creation.

Palace have only scored 12 goals so far, but when they convert properly – like the 3 against Bournemouth – you see what’s possible.

Next six fixtures average 12.2 npxG Allowed.

When the conversion clicks, absolute scenes incoming.

You need Palace assets desperately.

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Jean-Philippe Mateta (£11.04m) – If you own him, you’re laughing to the bank while the rest of us find cash out of thin air.

Central striker in a flying attack with dream fixtures.

Ismaïla Sarr (£8.97m) – More affordable, scores more in base stats, just less central.

Was scoring for fun before injury, then what he did to Liverpool in the cup.

Buying him today.

Daniel Muñoz (£12.16m) – Expensive but those attacking stats plus defensive work?

Underpriced for these fixtures.

Legit captain shout.

Manchester United

We Supercoach managers don’t care about United’s results.

We want points for our attackers (sorry United fans).

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Bryan Mbeumo (£10.75m) – Coming off 25 points last week and looking like prime Mo Salah.

The play right now.

Bruno Fernandes (£9.47m) – Base stats, penalties, attacking returns everywhere.

Scored 11 last week with no goals or assists.

That’s his floor. Imagine what’s coming.

Arsenal

Prioritise Arsenal defence over attack, but Eberechi Eze (£8.78m) is still cheap with a low breakeven after his 18-pointer.

Don’t sleep on value when it’s staring at you.

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The Pretenders

The Bottom Feeders

West Ham (-3.6), Burnley (-3.9), Sunderland (-4.8) – all cooked.

Not thinking about any attackers from these teams.

Aston Villa

Would’ve shocked you in GW1.

Easy fixtures, massive underperformance (-3.0), now facing a brutal run (9.6 npxG Allowed).

Avoid completely.

Tottenham

Had easy fixtures, still underperformed (-1.3). Now facing harder opposition (10.0 npxG Allowed).

Not the elite attack you think it is.

Manchester City

Not pretenders – one of the best attacks going around (+4.4).

But fixtures get significantly harder (9.5 npxG Allowed – toughest upcoming run).

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Not trading Erling Haaland (£16.39m), but he’s not auto-captain for the next six weeks.

Still elite, just needs more thought week-to-week.

Ditch Tijjani Reijnders (£6.63m) though – minutes have dried up.

Glad I jumped off earlier.

The Defenders

The Real Deal

Arsenal

Arsenal.

Arsenal.

Arsenal.

They’re my team yet I only own David Raya (£8.29m) and William Saliba (£7.09m, injured).

This is why I can’t crack the top 1k.

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Gabriel Magalhães (£14.22m) is a set piece machine.

Jurriën Timber (£11.35m) plays 90 every week.

Riccardo Calafiori (£8.62m) is incredible value.

Pick any two and sleep well.

Over 50% clean sheet chance this week.

Am I a bad fan if I want Burnley to score?

Newcastle

Second-best defensive record, yet I’ve barely seen anyone with Newcastle defenders.

Criminal.

Tasty game against West Ham this week.

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Dan Burn (£9.44m) is the play if you’ve got the cash.

Hard when Arsenal face Burnley though.

Leeds

There’s method to my Joe Rodon (£8.54m) and Jayden Bogle (£5.61m) double-up.

They’re actually decent (-1.4 against easy fixtures).

Was devastated when they conceded late last week – thought the clean sheet was in the bag.

Tough run coming (11.9 npxG) so I’m jumping off one in the next few weeks.

Not urgent yet.

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Sunderland

Outperformed their easy fixtures (-0.6), but that upcoming run is brutal (12.4 npxG).

Take your profit and get around Arsenal instead.

The Pretenders

The Bottom Three

Burnley (15.9 npxG Allowed), West Ham, Forest – relegation-level defending.

Not even thinking about defenders from these teams.

Chelsea

This surprised me. +2.0 means they’re leaking chances even against average attacks.

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I’m doubled up with Marc Cucurella (£8.75m) and Reece James (£10.45m).

At least they attack and have good fixtures (9.9 npxG).

Won’t keep this structure long after these fixtures though.

Manchester United

Buy their attackers.

Their defence (+2.3) is relegation-worthy.

Absolute shambles.

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Tottenham

I ditched Micky van de Ven (£8.90m) and Pedro Porro (£7.71m) in the last two weeks.

Their defence is a pretender (+0.8).

Yep, I missed out on 58 points from them last week.

Not salty at all.

Bloody Spurs.

If you’re holding Spurs defenders thinking they’re set-and-forget, reconsider.

The breakeven is nice, but it’s fooled me once this year.

Don’t make the same mistake.

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My Trades This Week

Right, the shopping list: Muñoz, Gabriel, Timber, Sarr, Mateta, and Mbeumo.

That’s possible, right?

The easy move: Kudus (£9.10m) to Sarr.

Done.

The harder moves: Getting Mateta or Mbeumo requires proper downgrades elsewhere.

Not simple sideways trades – actual structural changes.

Giving Rodon a week to bank cash, then pivoting him to Muñoz.

Who I hope drops in value before then. (He won’t. Watch him pop off for 20+ this week.)

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This week’s play: Can’t loop, so I’m looping Sarr as his welcome gift into Haaland.

The verdict: Palace and United attackers, Arsenal defenders – these are the teams to own.

City’s fixtures get harder but they’re still elite.

And if you’re holding Spurs or Chelsea defenders thinking they’re set-and-forget?

The numbers say otherwise.