EPL Supercoach | Top 10 Defender Targets

The Defensive Scramble

The top three most traded out players from the top 5% of managers this week?

All defenders: Van de Ven (peaked in price, Spurs looking shaky), Gabriel (injury timeline looking grim), and Reece James (dropping fast in price).

Everyone’s scrambling to get it right, and the timing matters.

I’ve crunched the numbers on base stats, expected goals, assists, and clean sheets for the next five gameweeks to find the genuine targets.

No gut feel, no ownership bias – just data showing who’s actually delivering points.

Here’s your top 10 defenders for the run home, with clear verdicts on who to target and who to avoid despite the hype.

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How to Read This

Each defender is ranked using three key factors:

Base stats are your foundation – tackles, interceptions, clearances, and successful passes.

A defender averaging 6+ base points per game is elite territory.

This is the bedrock of reliable scoring that doesn’t depend on attacking returns.

Expected output combines historical performance with upcoming fixtures.

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I’ve modelled each defender’s goal, assist, and clean sheet probability over the next five gameweeks based on their underlying numbers and opponent quality.

This separates genuine opportunities from fixture hype.

Value is simple – are they priced correctly?

A £7m defender with £9m output is a lock. A £11m defender with £9m output needs justification.

My verdicts:

• Lock: Buy immediately, clear value at current price
• Strong Consider: Excellent option if it fits your structure and available cash
• Wait: Good player, wrong timing (usually price-related)
• Pass: Avoid despite the hype or model suggestion

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The Top 10 Breakdown

1. Senesi (£8.12) – WAIT

Remember when he was £11.5m a few weeks ago?

His base stats are off the chain – the highest in the game at over 6 per game.

Bournemouth’s fixture run (West Ham, Sunderland, Everton, next three) is elite.

But he was battered against Villa, creating a monster breakeven.

I’m waiting one week and jumping on at £7.5m or less.

Don’t panic sell if you own him – this is exactly when to hold.

2. Timber (£10.16) – LOCK

You hear it from me every week: Arsenal equals clean sheets.

The odds makers haven’t reduced their clean sheet probability much despite the Gabriel injury, and I think the injury might be positive for Timber’s minutes.

Great goal threat, decent base stats, and if you’re trading out Gabriel but want to keep Arsenal coverage, he is your man. Simple.

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3. Tarkowski (£7.25) – STRONG CONSIDER

Just a base stats monster.

Doesn’t quite have Bournemouth’s fixtures, but at £7.25 he’s cheeeap – should be £8-10m easily.

I’m hoping to grab someone with more upside, but Tarkowski is a safe play each week who’ll give you zero headaches.

Set and forget defender.

4. Mitchell (£8.53) – STRONG CONSIDER

I’ve been banging on about Palace for weeks – still not too late to jump on. Mitchell came out on top in my model: only slightly below Richards on base stats but with great assist potential.

The clean sheet odds are solid and he won’t break the bank. Quality pick.

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5. Neco Williams (£5.61) – PASS

I triple-checked these numbers, thought my model was broken.

Strong base stats, decent clean sheet odds after Liverpool this week.

But I think the odds are overvaluing Forest.

He’s a pass for me despite what the numbers say – sometimes you trust the gut over the model.

6. Reece James (£11.09) – STRONG CONSIDER (controversial)

My head says trade him out – I’m still annoyed I didn’t check Chelsea teamsheets last weekend and copped his benching.

17 breakeven with Arsenal next week screams sell.

The model says I’m wrong.

Great base stats, solid assists, and yes, Arsenal next is horrid, but it’s sandwiched by Burnley and Leeds. Maybe he stays…

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7. Truffert (£7.61) – WAIT

The other Bournemouth defender.

Still a beast on base stats, but not at Senesi’s level.

I’d only buy if he’s £2m cheaper than Senesi.

Same fixture run, same “wait one week” strategy.

Can’t believe people are trading them out – hold on!

8. Munoz (£11.01) – STRONG CONSIDER

An attacker disguised as a defender, taking clean sheet points with the highest expected goals and assists in the Palace defence.

At £11.01, he’s premium-priced, but the output justifies it.

If you want Palace attacking upside with defensive points, this is your option.

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9. van Dijk (£5.25) – LOCK

One of the highest value picks in the game, according to my model.

Good base stats with exceptional clean sheet odds over the next five weeks.

I was cheeky and got him last week despite City (copped a -1, lost £800k), but I want him from now.

He’s not a £9m defender this year with Liverpool’s defensive record, but £5.25 is way too good to pass up.

Jump on if you need cash generation.

10. Richards (£8.60) – LOCK

Your Palace base stats monster.

Not a lot of attacking upside, but has a -1 breakeven, which is juicy.

He’s currently traded into my team.

If you want Palace coverage without the Munoz price tag and prefer consistency over explosiveness, Richards is your man.

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Final Word

Currently, I have James to Richards lined up, which gives me the cash to go Murphy to Rice.

But this analysis has me second-guessing myself – Arsenal sandwiched between Burnley and Leeds makes it tough to sell.

Also gives me a benching headache with too many defenders if I trade to Richards and upgrade to Rice in midfield.

Pedro is going next week (or this week if he’s benched for Chelsea), likely to Mbeumo or Salah, depending on how things shake out.

Point being: even with the data, these decisions aren’t straightforward.

Use this analysis as a guide, but trust your structure and what fits your team.