BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 3

In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies’ odds to predict fantasy points.

We’re not there yet with BBL, however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. 

The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring.

I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). 

There are many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.).

However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.

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Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. 

Odds below are as of 24 December.

Melbourne Stars ($1.89 vs Sydney Sixers at the SCG)

Player	Top Batter Odds	Estimates Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds	Estimated Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	Estimated POTM Prob
GJ Maxwell	4.00	17.3%	7.00	6.9%	7.50	11.1%
MP Stoinis	6.00	11.5%	6.50	7.5%	8.00	10.4%
J Clarke	4.33	16.0%	–	–	10.00	8.3%
C Kellaway	4.50	15.4%	–	–	12.00	6.9%
SB Harper	5.50	12.6%	–	–	12.00	6.9%
TF Rogers	6.50	10.6%	–	–	12.00	6.9%
TK Curran	29.00	2.4%	4.50	10.8%	12.00	6.9%
H Rauf	151.00	0.5%	3.75	12.9%	13.00	6.4%
MJ Swepson	151.00	0.5%	4.75	10.2%	13.00	6.4%
H Cartwright	11.00	6.3%	–	–	17.00	4.9%
PM Siddle	251.00	0.3%	4.33	11.2%	19.00	4.4%

Maxwell is the top option for both Player of the Match and best batter.

Given his game-breaking abilities, the POTM odds aren’t that surprising. 

Maxwell’s breakeven (188 across two games) is scary.

Even so, he could be a round-defining play given his immense ceiling and relatively low ownership (32% for the top 5% of coaches, at the time of writing).

It’s also encouraging to see him regularly rolling the arm over.

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Stoinis batted lower than him last outing, which is reflected in the best batter odds.

He has had a more prominent role with the ball, though, reflected by the best bowler odds.

Stoin is also the second-favoured Stars option for POTM.

I’m leaning towards rolling out both him and Maxy this round.

Clarke, Kellaway, and even Harper look ok punts as bat only.

Perhaps have a look at an emergency loop if you can. 

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Curran looks in decent form with the ball this season, although the odds prefer both Rauf and Siddle to him.

Batting at 8, I’d prefer the other all-rounders in Maxy and Stoinis if you can afford them. 

The odds look bang on in terms of SC priorities for the Stars’ bowl-only players.

I’d look at Rauf, Siddle, and Swepson in that order.

Both Rauf and Siddle look great on the eye test.

Hobart Hurricanes ($1.93 vs Perth Scorchers at Optus Stadium)

Player	Top Batter Odds	Estimates Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds	Estimated Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	Estimated POTM Prob
TH David	7.50	9.1%	19.00	2.5%	8.00	10.4%
MJ Owen	4.00	17.0%	12.00	4.0%	9.00	9.3%
BR McDermott	4.00	17.0%	–	–	10.00	8.4%
CJ Jordan	29.00	2.3%	5.00	9.6%	11.00	7.6%
N Ellis	41.00	1.7%	3.40	14.1%	11.00	7.6%
N Chaudhary	4.00	17.0%	11.00	4.4%	13.00	6.4%
R Ahmed	15.00	4.5%	6.00	8.0%	13.00	6.4%
R Hossain	51.00	1.3%	4.75	10.1%	13.00	6.4%
RP Meredith	251.00	0.3%	4.75	10.1%	13.00	6.4%
MS Wade	15.00	4.5%	–	–	17.00	4.9%
T Ward	6.50	10.5%	–	–	21.00	4.0%

David tends to always be quite high on POTM due to his match-winning / finishing ability.

I wouldn’t read much into it for Supercoach, though.

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Mitch Owen’s odds in the bowler and POTM categories are notably higher than the Stars’ all-rounders.

He is a fade candidate for mine.

Interestingly, Ellis is quite short for the best bowler, and Chris Jordan is still below the likes of Meredith and Hossain.

With his recent form, CJ is quite short for POTM, though.

He’ll rightfully be a popular captaincy option this round. 

Perth Scorchers ($1.89 vs Hobart Hurricanes at Optus Stadium)

Player	Top Batter Odds	Estimates Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds	Estimated Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	Estimated POTM Prob
M Marsh	4.00	20.2%	6.00	12.7%	8.00	14.6%
C Connolly	4.00	20.2%	9.00	8.5%	8.00	14.6%
FH Allen	5.00	16.2%	–	–	8.50	13.7%
AM Hardie	6.50	12.5%	6.00	12.7%	10.00	11.7%
LJ Evans	8.50	9.5%	–	–	11.00	10.6%
AC Agar	34.00	2.4%	5.50	13.9%	15.00	7.8%
AJ Turner	7.50	10.8%	9.00	8.5%	17.00	6.9%
ML Kelly	67.00	1.2%	4.75	16.0%	21.00	5.6%
NR Hobson	15.00	5.4%	–	–	23.00	5.1%
JS Paris	67.00	1.2%	6.50	11.7%	23.00	5.1%
B Couch	251.00	0.3%	4.75	16.0%	26.00	4.5%

Mitch Marsh is just $90k and probably goes large at some stage, which is supported by his best batter and POTM odds.

His best bowler odds are intriguing.

However, I wouldn’t read too much into them, given he hasn’t bowled in any T20 or First Class matches of late. 

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Cooper Connolly looms as the best captain option for the Scorchers’ double in round four.

His long best bowler odds are probably a reflection of the round 3 game being at the pace-friendly Optus Stadium.

Both the Scorchers’ round four games are away, which could suit him.

Finn Allen looks an important buy for the round four double given his ceiling, as supported by his best batter and POTM odds.

Stashing him this week makes sense if you can do it.

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Hardie looks essential for the double with his current role.

His best batter and bowler odds support this.

Matt Kelly looks the most appealing of the Scorchers’ bowlers.

He’s equal with Couch for best bowler odds, and shorter for POTM.

This matches the SuperCoach pedigree he’s shown in the past.

Thanks for reading.

This is the first time I’ve done an article of this type.

Feedback very much welcome!