BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 4

In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies’ odds to predict fantasy points.

We’re not there yet with BBL; however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. 

The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring.

I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). 

There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.).

However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.

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Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. 

This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us. 

Odds below are as at 29 December.

Perth Scorchers ($1.62, away to Thunder)

Player	Top Batter Odds (Runs)	Estimated Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds (Wickets)	Estimated Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	Estimated POTM Prob
FH Allen	5.00	11.4%	–	–	7.50	4.7%
M Marsh	4.00	14.3%	6.00	6.8%	8.00	4.4%
C Connolly	4.00	14.3%	9.00	4.5%	8.50	4.1%
JP Inglis	5.00	11.4%	–	–	8.50	4.1%
AM Hardie	6.50	8.8%	5.50	7.4%	9.00	3.9%
AC Agar	34.00	1.7%	5.50	7.4%	10.00	3.5%
LJ Evans	8.50	6.7%	–	–	13.00	2.7%
AJ Turner	7.50	7.6%	9.00	4.5%	19.00	1.9%
B Couch	251.00	0.2%	4.50	9.1%	19.00	1.9%
M Beardman	251.00	0.2%	6.00	6.8%	19.00	1.9%
JS Paris	67.00	0.9%	6.50	6.3%	21.00	1.7%

The POTM odds indicate that Finn Allen has the highest ceiling of the Scorchers’ batters.

It’s hard to go past him in the wicketkeeper slot this round. 

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Interestingly, Mitch Marsh is still shorter odds than Allen for top batter, despite recent form.

I do think Marsh goes off at some stage.

He’s hard to pass up at a heavily discounted price.

Ignore his top bowler odds, as he still appears unlikely to bowl. 

Supercoach form suggests that Connolly is a must-have this round.

I’ll likely be bringing him in and captaining him.

However, if only looking at the betting odds, a case could be made to fade, given he’s a long way down in the top bowler odds.

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Conversely, Hardie’s bowling odds are very good to go with a player of his batting capabilities.

This makes him hard to go without.

In terms of bowlers, the odds favour Agar (top-ranked bowler for POTM) or Couch (top-ranked for best bowler/most wickets).

I’d lean towards Couch at a significant discount compared to Agar.

BBL Winner market

Team	Comp Odds (To Win)	Games Played	Current Wins	Games Left	Estimated Win % From Here
Melbourne Stars	3.50	4	4	6	70.6%
Hobart Hurricanes	3.50	4	3	6	70.6%
Perth Scorchers	6.00	3	1	7	57.7%
Brisbane Heat	9.00	4	2	6	47.6%
Melbourne Renegades	11.00	2	1	8	42.8%
Sydney Sixers	11.00	4	1	6	42.8%
Adelaide Strikers	13.00	3	1	7	38.9%
Sydney Thunder	21.00	4	1	6	29.0%

I’ve utilised ChatGPT to calculate the above table based on each team’s odds to win the BBL.

In general, I favour players from teams with a higher predicted win %.

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The Stars have been the big movers in comp odds, thanks to a 4 from 4 start to the season.

Hold them through the bye if you can.

The Hurricanes are equal favourites to win the BBL, which also increases the case for holding a few of their crew.

They’re followed by the Scorchers, who, as fortune would have it, play the double this round.

Being relatively high on predicted wins also supports the case for holding a few of the Perth contingent. 

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The Heat sit in fourth on predicted wins and have already played their double.

The form of Bartlett and Wildermuth makes them both decent holds, but not essential by any means. 

The Renegades and Sixers sit in the next rung down, which is somewhat concerning, given we’ll need them for doubles later in the season, which coincide with head-to-head finals.

Furthermore, the Sixers have two double-rounds remaining, so ideally, they’d be a team to target.

The odds suggest we need to be somewhat cautious with them, though. 

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The Strikers also have a double remaining but are second last in the betting odds.

Matt Short and Jamie Overton are obvious picks for their double.

Outside of those two, based on the odds, perhaps it’s best to only target one or two more. 

The Thunder sit last in the odds and have played their double.

With Shadab Khan leaving and Dan Sams not in the best form, there’s a case to be made for going without them entirely from here.