Supercoach BBL Final Word: Round 5 captains, PODs, weather watch

The Supercoach BBL season is moving rapidly, with back-to-back rounds lasting just three days.

As we near the back half of the season, it’s time to begin to shift the focus on cash generation towards points accumulation.

There will still be opportunities to generate cash, but hopefully coaches have been savvy enough with trades so far to increase overall squad value to afford the guns on the run home.

It’s all good and well having the largest squad value by the end of season, but if you haven’t accumulated the points it’ll be for nothing.

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The Cooma Stallions had a very much needed bounce back week scoring 1,259 points to rise to 2,790^th overall.

We’re still a long way from where we want to be after a poor start, but at least it’s getting far more respectable.

Let’s take a look at the Final Word ahead of Supercoach BBL round 5.

Weather watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Friday, 2PM. Forecasts are subject to change.

Verdict: Monitor tonight’s forecast in Brisbane very closely as it may have a big impact on trades around Stars players if it’s wet. If not a full game, there should be enough overs to justify the trades anyway with the Stars on the double.

Looking ahead

The Melbourne Stars are on the double in round 5 and are the priority targets this week.

Coming off the round 3 double, most coaches will already own a handful of their contingent as it stands making trades this week a little easier.

The Sydney Sixers are on the bye this week which is actually quite beneficial for looping purposes, followed with a double in round 6, so try not to sell any of their players.

The Hobart Hurricanes have the bye next week, but have a double in round 7, so try and hold a couple of their players in preparation.

Breakevens

Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.

The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.

Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)

Aaron Hardie -128

Mitch Marsh -61

Chris Lynn -47

Ashton Turner -35

Josh Brown -29

Tom Balkin -23

Matt Wade -19

Matt Kuhnemann -7

Jerrssis Wadia -6

Xavier Bartlett -6

Tim Ward -6

Joel Davies -1

Sam Harper 0

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Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)

Note the breakevens for the players on the double game round are scores for the two games.

Marcus Stoinis 160

Jack Edwards 156

Josh Philippe 153

Haris Rauf 142

Glenn Maxwell 133

Matt Renshaw 131

Jason Behrendorff 129

Jack Wildemuth 128

Tim Seifert 121

Shadab Khan 110

Sam Billings 106

Chris Jorden 106

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Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 10% ownership (among the top 10% ranked coaches once rankings roll in) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

Last week, Brody Couch delivered at bottom dollar for POD hunters at 8.8% ownership with 83 points on the double in the only selection of the week.

Jamie Overton – $184,900 – 13% ownership

Okay, Overton is slightly above super POD criteria at 13% but it’s pretty close to the mark…

He’s remarkably low-ownership for a player of his pedigree and upside in Supercoach.

It is of course due to his hefty price tag and the Strikers lack of double game weeks early.

The Strikers do have a double incoming in round 7, so going now on Overton is a genuine option.

He’s firing with an average of 76.8 points per game and can go large on any occasion.

He’s world class and should be on the radar of Supercoaches in coming rounds if you have the cash to splash.

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Captains

It’s an extremely tricky round for skippers with the Melbourne Stars on the double.

They’re the most unpredictable team in the competition when it comes to predicting the batting order and who will bowl what overs.

They appear to adopt a tactic of entering each game with an extremely flexible approach pending match situation, at times it’s a bit like under 10s where they’re just trying to give everyone a turn.

For that reason, picking a skipper is somewhat of a lottery.

Marcus Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell and Tom Curran are probably the three for me.

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Stoin and Maxy stand out with the best roles, despite the volatility.

The fact that Stoin is getting overs at the death probably swings it in his favour for me, but I can’t help but feel like it’s a round to take a punt with another option.

Should the vice-captain score sub 25 or so tonight, there are numerous captaincy options later in the round.

Matt Short is probably still the number one option, but the in-form Cooper Connolly presents a great case on the same deck in Perth.