BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 6

In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies’ odds to predict fantasy points.

We’re not there yet with BBL; however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. 

The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring.

I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). 

There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.).

However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.

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Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. 

This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us. 

Odds below are as of 4 January.

Sydney Sixers ($1.72) home to Brisbane Heat

Player	Top Batter Odds	Estimated Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds	Estimated Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	Estimated POTM Prob
MB Azam	4.00	16.4%	–	–	9.00	10.3%
SA Abbott	41.00	1.6%	4.00	13.3%	10.00	9.3%
D Hughes	5.00	13.1%	–	–	10.00	9.3%
JR Philippe	4.00	16.4%	–	–	10.00	9.3%
M Henriques	5.00	13.1%	11.00	4.8%	11.00	8.4%
J Edwards	11.00	6.0%	5.50	9.7%	11.00	8.4%
B Dwarshuis	34.00	2.0%	4.00	13.3%	13.00	7.1%
H Kerr	41.00	1.6%	5.00	10.6%	19.00	4.9%
JC Silk	8.50	7.8%	–	–	19.00	4.9%
J Davies	21.00	3.2%	7.00	7.6%	21.00	4.4%
BA Manenti	81.00	0.8%	9.00	5.9%	23.00	4.0%

Babar Azam has found form in time for the Sixers’ double.

He’s the favourite for Player of the Match, and represents a high-risk, high-reward Supercoach play this round.

Fellow top order Sixers Hughes and Phillipe are also high on the POTM list.

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If looking at cash generation, Hughes is probably the play, as his breakeven is over 100 less than Phillipe’s.

Abbott, Edwards, and Dwarshuis all represent great captaincy options this week.

Abbott’s ceiling is reflected by having the best POTM odds of the three.

Edwards looks the safe option, supported by respectable odds across batting, bowling, and POTM categories. 

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Dwarshuis could be the POD captain play.

He is equal to Abbott in best bowler odds, and is always a chance of a late innings quick-fire 20.

Henriques sits well in both best batter and POTM odds.

At just 61k, he represents a feasible POD cheapie option. 

Hayden Kerr is the third favourite for best bowler and has the all-important bat/bowl dual in SC.

Being in and out of the side, he seems an unnecessary risk, though. 

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Meanwhile, Joel Davies continues to impress, quietly averaging 61 points this season and is set to make plenty more cash.

The POTM and best bowler odds aren’t great for him.

This could more so reflect the quality of his teammates, though.

It’s also worth noting that he’s much shorter than Dwarshuis for best batter.