Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 7 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies’ odds to predict fantasy points.

We’re not there yet with BBL, however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. 

The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring.

I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). 

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There are many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.).

However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.

Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. 

This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us.

Odds below are as at 8 January.

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Hobart Hurricanes ($1.65) at home to Adelaide Strikers

Player	Top Batter Odds (most runs)	Top Batter Prob	Top Bowler Odds (most wickets)	Top Bowler Prob	POTM Odds	POTM Prob
Mitch Owen	4.33	12.2%	10.00	4.9%	8.00	13.3%
Ben McDermott	4.50	11.8%	–	–	10.00	10.7%
Riley Meredith	251.00	0.2%	5.50	8.9%	10.00	10.7%
Nikhil Chaudhary	5.50	9.6%	11.00	4.4%	11.00	9.7%
Nathan Ellis	41.00	1.3%	4.00	12.2%	11.00	9.7%
Rishad Hossain	51.00	1.0%	5.50	8.9%	11.00	9.7%
Tim Ward	5.00	10.6%	–	–	13.00	8.2%
Matthew Wade	8.50	6.2%	–	–	13.00	8.2%
Chris Jordan	29.00	1.8%	5.50	8.9%	13.00	8.2%
Rehan Ahmed	6.50	8.2%	6.00	8.2%	15.00	7.1%
Will Prestwidge	17.00	3.1%	6.50	7.5%	23.00	4.6%

Mitch Owen sits atop the list for both the Hurricanes’ top batter and Player of the Match.

He’s also been regularly rolling the arm over in recent matches.

At $114.2k, he’s in must-have territory this round and is also a captaincy candidate.

McDermott is the next favourite for top batter and also equal second favourite from the Hurricanes for POTM.

He started well this season, but his form has since dropped off.

Regularly batting at four, he’s a reasonable hold, but I wouldn’t be rushing to buy.

Riley Meredith is a player with a high ceiling, as evidenced by his being equal second on the list (with McDermott) for POTM. At $102.2k, he represents an intriguing POD option this round. 

Nathan Ellis hasn’t fully hit his stride in SC yet this season.

However, he still is the favourite for Hurricanes’ top bowler and would be a risky fade this round. 

Chris Jordan’s odds across all betting categories are much worse compared to earlier this season, when he was in better form. The role is still good but he’s far from essential. 

Tim Ward ($75k) will come into the round with a big negative breakeven.

He’s the third favourite for the Hurricanes’ best batter and could well continue his form from the last match.

If you’re in need of cash, while keeping your double game numbers up, Ward could be your guy.

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Adelaide Strikers ($2.25) away to Hobart Hurricanes 

Player	Top Batter Odds (most runs)	Top Batter %	Top Bowler Odds (most wickets)	Top Bowler %	POTM Odds	POTM %
Matt Short	3.40	23.8%	8.50	8.9%	8.00	16.2%
Chris Lynn	4.50	18.0%	–	0.0%	11.00	11.8%
Jason Sangha	6.50	12.3%	–	0.0%	15.00	8.6%
Liam Scott	6.00	13.4%	8.50	8.9%	11.00	8.6%
Jamie Overton	9.00	8.9%	4.33	18.4%	13.00	7.3%
Mackenzie Harvey	7.00	11.5%	–	0.0%	21.00	6.2%
Harry Manenti	12.00	6.7%	9.50	8.0%	23.00	5.6%
J Wadia	23.00	3.5%	9.00	8.4%	26.00	5.0%
Hassan Ali	151.00	0.5%	4.75	16.8%	15.00	6.5%
Luke Wood	126.00	0.6%	5.00	15.9%	15.00	6.5%
Lloyd Pope	251.00	0.3%	4.33	18.4%	17.00	5.7%

Matt Short is very ‘short’ in the odds, as per usual.

While he’s regularly bowling 3+ overs, he’s very hard to go against as captain.

BBL all-time leading run scorer Chris Lynn is the second favourite for Strikers’ best batter and equal second from the Strikers for POTM.

At a tick over $100k, he’s worth considering. However, the matchups this round vs the Hurricanes and Sixers aren’t the easiest for a bat only.

Liam Scott and Jamie Overton are both great all-rounder options, reflected in the odds.

If forced to choose, I’d favour Overton as the better bowling option, but I’ll be aiming to squeeze both in if possible. 

None of the Strikers’ bowl-only options stand out.

Lloyd Pope has shown a ceiling at times and is equal favourite for Strikers best bowler – he could be considered as a POD.