Stat Deep Dive: Dorgu’s Out, Finding Your Best Replacement

Last week was massive, and I’m prety happy about it…

123 points, ranked 127 for the round, up to 310 overall. Szoboszlai captain (25×2), Bowen (23 points), everything clicking.

Except Dorgu on the bench – I missed his 14 after missing his 26 the week before.

Now he’s out for ten weeks. That’s £13.12m doing nothing, and I’m one of the 16% in the top 10% who needs to move him on. I can’t keep carrying dead money when the second half is where league’s are won.

Here’s the maths on who actually replaces him – and it might not be the premium you’re thinking.

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Base Stats: The Defensive Foundation

Base stats are the bread and butter – tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, key passes, successful dribbles, aerials won. The stuff that accumulates every single week regardless of whether your team wins 3-0 or loses 2-1.

Important: This analysis excludes any match data where players played under 60 minutes. Not normally a big issue, but it massively impacts Reece James. Unless you’re checking team news at 3am Australian time, ignore his numbers below.

Here’s the base stats per game (BSPG) for each defender:

Player	Price	BSPG
Senesi	£7.47m	6.72
Tarkowski	£10.61m	6.17
Reece James*	£7.93m	5.48
Chalobah	£6.84m	4.50
Guehi	£6.94m	4.39
van Dijk	£7.57m	4.36
Muñoz	£12.38m	4.21
Cucurella	£4.63m	4.17

Senesi’s an absolute machine – 6.72 base stats per game. Elite across tackles, clearances, blocks and interceptions. Tarkowski’s second at 6.17, showing how he remains a top scorer despite Everton’s average defence.

Cucurella and Muñoz sit at the bottom (4.17 and 4.21). Makes sense – they’re more attacking defenders, getting forward more and naturally picking up fewer defensive actions.

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Clean Sheets vs Conceding: The Killer Variable

You get six points for a clean sheet, but you lose two points for every goal your team concedes when you’ve played 60+ minutes.

Clean sheet percentages below are projected for the next five gameweeks.

Think of it like this: Guehi is expected to keep a clean sheet 28% of the time (gaining 1.68 points on average), but when Man City concede, he’ll only lose 0.72 points on average. Net result: +0.96 points per game from the clean sheet equation – basically banking a free point every game.

Here’s what each defender is expected to gain from clean sheets versus what they’ll lose from conceding:

Player	CS%	CS Points Gained	Concede Penalty	Net CS Impact
Guehi	28%	+1.68	-0.72	+0.96
Reece James*	31%	+1.86	-0.95	+0.91
Cucurella	31%	+1.86	-0.95	+0.91
Chalobah	31%	+1.86	-0.95	+0.91
van Dijk	32%	+1.92	-1.36	+0.56
Muñoz	26%	+1.56	-1.28	+0.28
Tarkowski	22%	+1.32	-1.33	-0.01
Senesi	25%	+1.50	-2.21	-0.71

The Winners: Guehi leads at +0.96. The Chelsea defenders (James, Cucu, Chalobah) all sit at +0.91. Chelsea face West Ham, Wolves, Leeds and Brentford over the next four weeks – incredible run. They’re banking clean sheets often enough (31%) that the concede penalty doesn’t hurt. Van Dijk has the best CS odds (32%) but Liverpool’s harsh penalty brings him to +0.56.

The Neutral: Tarkowski sits at -0.01. Everton are expected to keep clean sheets just 22% of the time – worst in this group. The points he gains from clean sheets get completely wiped out by the points he loses when they concede. Dead even.

The Disaster: Senesi at -0.71 is copping it. Bournemouth are expected to keep clean sheets 25% of the time, but when they concede, they concede big. That -2.21 penalty is brutal – he’s losing nearly a point per game. His elite 6.72 BSPG can’t overcome it.

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Attacking Stats: Goals and Assists

Defenders don’t score often, but when they do it’s massive. Twelve points for a goal, eight for an assist.

Goals and assists below are projected for the next five gameweeks.

Player	Goals/G	Assists/G	Attacking Points/G
Muñoz	0.102	0.134	2.29
Reece James*	0.042	0.144	1.65
Cucurella	0.044	0.12	1.49
Chalobah	0.066	0.044	1.14
Guehi	0.050	0.064	1.11
Tarkowski	0.048	0.044	0.93
Senesi	0.034	0.062	0.91
van Dijk	0.054	0.030	0.89

Muñoz dominates – 2.29 attacking points per game, miles ahead of everyone. He’s genuinely a great scorer. Palace’s attack runs through him – bombing forward constantly and getting into dangerous positions. That threat stays with him.

Reece James sits second at 1.65 attacking points per game when he plays. That 0.144 expected assists shows why he’s so dangerous when fit.

Cucurella’s 0.12 expected assists keeps him relevant despite bottom-tier base stats. Chelsea’s system gets their defenders into attacking positions constantly.

The rest barely register. Van Dijk, Tarkowski, Senesi – you’re not owning them for goals and assists. They’re pure defensive plays.

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Expected Points: The Truth

I’ve built a metric combining base stats + clean sheets + attacking returns + 2 points for playing to calculate Expected Points (EP) per game. This excludes points lost for yellow cards, getting dispossessed, and shots on target – areas where the data’s harder to project consistently.

Divide EP by price and you get EP/M – truth serum for value.

Player	Price	EP	EP/M
Reece James*	£7.93m	10.04	1.27
Tarkowski	£10.61m	9.09	0.86
Senesi	£7.47m	8.92	1.19
Muñoz	£12.38m	8.78	0.71
Cucurella	£4.63m	8.57	1.85
Chalobah	£6.84m	8.55	1.25
Guehi	£6.94m	8.46	1.22
van Dijk	£7.57m	7.81	1.03

Cucurella wins at 1.85 EP/M. At £4.63m he’s returning almost double what the premiums deliver per million spent.

Muñoz at 0.71 EP/M is terrible value. Yes, he’s scoring, but you’re overpaying because of his GW23-24 hauls before the injury.

Senesi at 1.19 EP/M is my ideal choice with their long-term fixtures. If Bournemouth tighten up and stop conceding 2+ goals, he becomes the pick. That’s the gamble.

Why Not Stay Premium?

You’re holding £13.12m. Why not swap to another premium? Because there isn’t one worth it. Muñoz at £12.38m returns 0.71 points per million – you’re overpaying for his GW23-24 hauls. But watch him in a few weeks when his price drops and his fixtures improve.

My Move

Dorgu + Xhaka out, Cucurella + Bruno in. Upgrades midfield while banking some cash for flexibility. Senesi if you’ve got the budget and believe in Bournemouth. Guehi to monitor at City. Muñoz when his price drops.

Be careful paying top dollar when there’s amazing value about. Cucurella at £4.63m is the best value Dorgu replacement. Downgrade, upgrade where it matters. Done.