AFL Supercoach 2026: Finding Value in the Early Byes

Another season, another bout of irrational Saints optimism that’ll be crushed by May. You’d think after decades of false hope I’d learn, but here we are.

At least fantasy gives me something to actually compete for. Real September? That’s for other clubs. I’ll take my wins in Supercoach where I can get them.

The early bye structure is the biggest hurdle for opening-round squad construction. Ten teams cop staggered byes in Rounds 2, 3, and 4.

The safe play? Load the other ten teams and dodge the headache. Except some of the best value in the competition sits on those exact bye teams.

I ran the numbers. The answer: cheap bye players beat elite ones every time.

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Round 0: The Free Assessment Window

Opening Round runs March 5-8 across four nights:

Thursday March 5: Sydney vs Carlton
Friday March 6: Gold Coast vs Geelong
Saturday March 7: GWS vs Hawthorn, Brisbane vs Bulldogs
Sunday March 8: St Kilda vs Collingwood

None of it counts for your Supercoach score. Your season starts Round 1. But the stats from Round 0 absolutely count for price changes and breakevens.

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The Rookie Loading Strategy

Round 0 gives you a free look at basement-priced rookies playing actual AFL football. You see their role, their scoring, their job security before your season begins.

Price changes happen after a player’s third game. Opening Round players hit game three earlier than everyone else—Round 2 for most, Round 3 for Brisbane/Carlton/Collingwood/Geelong (same as non-Opening Round teams). Either way, you’ve watched them play before committing.

Keep the winners, dump the disasters.

I’d rather field one fewer player during a bye week to secure better rookies. That missing score probably wouldn’t have counted in Best 18 anyway. A rookie generating $250k in cash by Round 8? That’s how you build toward full premium mode.

The tradeoff is Opening Round teams cop early byes. This restricts how many premiums and mid-pricers I can carry from those same teams. But the rookie cash generation is worth it.

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The Three-Week Bye Structure

Round 2: Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong
Round 3: Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney
Round 4: GWS, St Kilda

All three rounds use Best 18 scoring—only your top 18 scores from 23 on-field players count.

If you field 19 active players because four are on bye, you lose one score: your worst performer that week. The question isn’t “should I avoid byes?” It’s “which bye players justify the penalty?”

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The Breakeven Calculation

I modeled a standard squad and tested every position. Replace a player with someone who has a bye but scores better every other round—when is it worth it?

Player	Weekly Score	Rounds Played	Total Score	Best 18 Replacement	Effective Total
Player A (no bye)	100	8	800	–	800
Player B (R2 bye)	105	7	735	+60 (19th player)	795

Verdict: Player A wins by 5 points.

When Player B misses Round 2, Best 18 scoring brings in the next-best player from your squad—typically scoring around 60. So Player B gets 795 points, not 735. A +5 edge barely breaks even at this scoring level.

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The Breakeven Point by Tier

How much better does a bye player need to score?

Elite premiums (115-127 averages): Need +8 to +10 points
Strong premiums (105-115 averages): Need +7 to +8 points
Mid premiums (95-105 averages): Need +5 to +7 points
Mid-pricers (85-95 averages): Need +4 to +5 points

Lower scorers need smaller edges because their replacement is only 25-35 points worse. Elite scorers get replaced by players 60-70 points worse. The replacement gap is everything.

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The Real-World Test

Take Zak Butters ($654k, priced at 119) versus Hugh McCluggage ($646k, priced at 119). Same price, elite midfielders.

McCluggage plays Opening Round, cops Round 2 bye. Butters doesn’t.

For McCluggage to justify that bye, he needs to outscore Butters by roughly 9 points per game across seven non-bye rounds. Is he that much better? That’s your call. But the gap required is enormous.

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The Mid-Pricer Sweet Spot

Now compare Nic Newman ($439k, priced at 80) to Jayden Short ($456k, priced at 83). Similar defenders, similar price.

Newman has Round 2 bye. He only needs a 5-point edge per game to justify it.

If you think his role gives him that advantage, you’re laughing. The threshold is tiny. This is why mid-pricers from Opening Round teams aren’t traps—they need tiny edges to be worthwhile.

Elite premiums need to be genuinely, significantly better to clear the hurdle.

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My Round 0 Strategy

Loading every viable Round 0 rookie. If there are eight who look like locks for games, I’m taking all eight. I’d rather field 18 active players in a bye week than miss out on a cash cow.

Loading mid-pricers from bye teams if they’ve got genuine premium upside—fallen guns recovering from injury, role changes pushing them from 80 to 100+. One elite premium maximum, and only if they’ve got a genuine 9-10 point advantage over alternatives.

The rookies dictate everything else. Round 0 shows me who’s playing, who’s scoring, who’s got job security. Then I build around them.

Stop treating all bye players the same. Mid-pricers need small edges. Elite premiums need massive ones. Know the difference, back your numbers, move on.