Random Stats Guy
SC Playbook Contributor. Stats man on About Even
The Random Stats Guy analyses the player ownership of the top 1% of NRL Supercoach teams in Round 3
NRLRound 3 saw suspensions and injuries to some key NRL Supercoach players.
Ativalu Lisati was ruled out before kick off, Trey Mooney and Ryan Couchman were suspended at the worst time, and Payne Haas dropped a shoulder injury bombshell to top it all off…
Let’s see how the top 1% of Supercoaches have responded to the Round 4 team lists.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Sualauvi Faalogo | $661,400 | 99.90% | 1.40% | 117 | -22 |
| Keano Kini | $513,700 | 55.30% | 6.70% | 61 | 42 |
| Reece Walsh | $782,300 | 33.40% | 11.00% | 67 | 83 |
| Tom Trbojevic | $692,200 | 22.00% | -1.70% | 96 | 30 |
| James Tedesco | $825,700 | 5.10% | -3.70% | 75 | 132 |
| Scott Drinkwater | $729,400 | 3.60% | 1.70% | 58 | 80 |
| Kalyn Ponga | $607,800 | 63.30% | -3.00% | 85 | 25 |
| Dylan Edwards | $772,500 | 1.90% | 1.00% | 81 | 90 |
| Jye Gray | $582,000 | 1.60% | 0.90% | 69 | 40 |
| Isaiah Iongi | $635,500 | 1.30% | -3.20% | 66 | 72 |
| Kaeo Weekes | $557,600 | 1.00% | 0.10% | 66 | 55 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | $696,400 | 0.90% | -1.00% | 73 | 71 |
| Hugo Peel | $201,400 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0 | 22 |
| Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | $521,600 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 55 | 57 |
| Motu Pasikala | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0 | 22 |
| Jahream Bula | $606,900 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 52 | 91 |
| Clinton Gutherson | $600,200 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 49 | 85 |
| Liam Ison | $216,800 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 12 | 40 |
| Connor Tracey | $611,200 | 0.00% | -0.10% | 76 | 44 |
| Trai Fuller | $559,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7 | 115 |
Reece Walsh time.
The Broncos’ star fullback has finished a tough start to the season, and now his draw opens up for him.
It will be scary not owning him across his next 4 fixtures against the Dolphins, Titans, Cowboys and Tigers.
The top 1% of Supercoaches have responded, with Reece being the 2nd most traded-in player this week.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Heamasi Makasini | $235,600 | 93.40% | 5.50% | 57 | -37 |
| Setu Tu | $264,600 | 93.00% | 3.00% | 48 | 4 |
| Latrell Mitchell | $679,100 | 91.40% | -1.70% | 89 | 65 |
| Sialetili Faeamani | $254,100 | 84.70% | 0.90% | 43 | 6 |
| Herbie Farnworth | $804,000 | 80.50% | 10.60% | 79 | 95 |
| Tom Chester | $292,100 | 77.90% | -9.10% | 54 | -7 |
| Stephen Crichton | $600,000 | 27.50% | 11.30% | 83 | -79 |
| Campbell Graham | $431,200 | 22.80% | 10.30% | 61 | 16 |
| Valentine Holmes | $728,200 | 15.90% | 5.90% | 76 | 60 |
| Brian Too | $587,500 | 13.30% | -6.40% | 59 | 48 |
| KL Iro | $651,500 | 11.90% | 3.00% | 53 | 94 |
| Jacob Kiraz | $746,700 | 10.70% | -17.00% | 64 | 113 |
| Thomas Jenkins | $697,100 | 7.30% | 6.60% | 105 | 14 |
| Moses Leo | $317,300 | 4.20% | -2.10% | 59 | 20 |
| Jamayne Isaako | $627,400 | 4.00% | 1.90% | 73 | 62 |
| Luke Laulilii | $246,400 | 3.80% | 3.20% | 66 | -52 |
| Fletcher Hunt | $322,700 | 3.40% | 0.40% | 60 | -16 |
| Dominic Young | $558,300 | 2.30% | -1.90% | 74 | 50 |
| Selwyn Cobbo | $518,900 | 2.10% | -0.70% | 54 | 59 |
| Cody Ramsey | $201,400 | 2.00% | -0.10% | 0 | 22 |
Jacob Kiraz let down his owners last week with just 28 points in the slop in Canberra, seeing some forced out of the top 1%
Meanwhile, Supercoaches who owned his left centre, Stephen Crichton continued to benefit from his roaming role for the Bullodogs, en route to 76 points.
Herbie Farnworth has also continued to deliver, without being on the try scorers list, scoring 85 points against the Sharks.
Fears of his high price at the start of the season plummeting have been squashed, with him only losing $20k last week.
Thomas Jenkins has averaged 105 points to start the season and rose $98k for this round to move into $697k.
It seems that the top 1% aren’t moving to him, as he has only gained 106 more owners.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Jonah Pezet | $294,700 | 92.90% | 0.60% | 50 | -37 |
| Cody Walker | $434,600 | 42.40% | -26.30% | 57 | 71 |
| Jaxon Purdue | $598,600 | 37.80% | 25.80% | 77 | 4 |
| Cameron Munster | $668,600 | 23.20% | 4.90% | 67 | 92 |
| Fletcher Sharpe | $730,700 | 4.90% | 1.10% | 61 | 98 |
| Braydon Trindall | $484,900 | 4.40% | 0.70% | 73 | 70 |
| Jarome Luai | $465,700 | 1.10% | -0.80% | 89 | -29 |
| Matt Burton | $557,400 | 1.00% | 0.60% | 58 | 64 |
| Reece Foley | $201,400 | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0 | 22 |
| Ethan Strange | $573,600 | 0.60% | -0.60% | 50 | 66 |
| Blaize Talagi | $562,300 | 0.60% | 0.40% | 54 | 60 |
| Sandon Smith | $495,400 | 0.30% | -0.30% | 50 | 52 |
| Tyson Gamble | $281,600 | 0.30% | 0.30% | 66 | -5 |
| John Fineanganofo | $201,400 | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0 | 22 |
| Daly Cherry-Evans | $578,000 | 0.20% | -0.10% | 49 | 66 |
| Chanel Harris-Tavita | $539,100 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 46 | 81 |
| Jake Clifford | $533,400 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 65 | 22 |
| Te Maire Martin | $235,600 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0 | 25 |
| Brandon Wakeham | $216,800 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 19 | 29 |
| Kade Reed | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0 | 22 |
Cody Walker has banged out back-to-back scores of 34, and with the bye this week, he has forced over 400 Supercoaches in the top 1% to sell him.
Jaxon Purdue has been an out-of-the-box replacement, following scores of 73 and 115 in the last 2 weeks.
He is the 9th most traded-in player overall this week, and despite facing the Storm this week, he has posted decent scores of 57 and 61 – which ex-Cody Walker owners will take.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Daniel Atkinson | $285,900 | 52.90% | 6.10% | 46 | -14 |
| Nicholas Hynes | $759,500 | 49.10% | 5.70% | 84 | 122 |
| Ethan Sanders | $324,500 | 36.80% | -9.50% | 59 | 22 |
| Tanah Boyd | $698,300 | 19.80% | 11.10% | 113 | 17 |
| Adam Doueihi | $556,000 | 7.30% | -1.70% | 90 | -1 |
| Jahrome Hughes | $662,700 | 4.70% | 2.00% | 80 | 38 |
| Mitchell Moses | $527,600 | 3.00% | -2.40% | 52 | 54 |
| Nathan Cleary | $808,300 | 1.60% | -2.70% | 81 | 81 |
| Sam Walker | $614,700 | 1.20% | -1.60% | 45 | 117 |
| Jayden Campbell | $711,400 | 0.40% | 0.30% | 97 | 58 |
| Lachlan Galvin | $555,200 | 0.40% | -0.10% | 62 | 54 |
| Isaiya Katoa | $612,600 | 0.20% | -0.40% | 57 | 84 |
| Brad Schneider | $311,600 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 35 | 37 |
| Joey Walsh | $235,600 | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0 | 25 |
| Tom Dearden | $601,100 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 53 | 109 |
| Latu Fainu | $384,200 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0 | 41 |
| Zac Herdegen | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0 | 22 |
| Jonah Glover | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0 | 22 |
| Latrell Siegwalt | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0 | 22 |
| Toby Rodwell | $201,400 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0 | 22 |
Tanah Boyd has been flying this season, scoring 3 tries, making 6 try assists and kicking 17 goals to start the season.
How long will this run continue? Maybe at least one more week against a Tigers’ side missing Jarome Luai; before he plays the Sharks and the Storm both on the road.
Luke Metcalf being back in the team will also be an interesting watch too.
Not too much movement in ownership in the halfback position this week.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Harry Grant | $650,200 | 94.70% | -1.40% | 83 | 54 |
| Brandon Smith | $235,600 | 25.60% | -0.90% | 0 | 25 |
| Benaiah Ioelu | $248,900 | 24.90% | 1.60% | 34 | 12 |
| Blayke Brailey | $672,200 | 22.80% | 10.30% | 77 | 66 |
| Reed Mahoney | $412,400 | 17.40% | -5.20% | 42 | 57 |
| Bailey Hayward | $343,900 | 8.10% | -0.90% | 45 | 21 |
| Tallyn Da Silva | $271,400 | 1.60% | 1.10% | 40 | -9 |
| Damien Cook | $559,600 | 1.20% | -0.90% | 70 | 75 |
| Reece Robson | $497,400 | 0.50% | 0.30% | 65 | 44 |
| Jake Simpkin | $422,700 | 0.40% | 0.00% | 46 | 45 |
| Phoenix Crossland | $397,300 | 0.30% | -0.10% | 47 | 47 |
| Ryley Smith | $385,300 | 0.10% | -0.40% | 43 | 26 |
| Bronson Garlick | $307,400 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 18 | 72 |
| Owen Pattie | $237,600 | 0.10% | -0.20% | 0 | 25 |
| Tristan Hope | $236,300 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 16 | 36 |
| Luke Sommerton | $235,600 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 15 | 37 |
| Brent Woolf | $201,400 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 19 | 25 |
| Wayde Egan | $500,000 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 45 | 64 |
| Mitch Kenny | $417,900 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 42 | 37 |
| Cory Paix | $333,700 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 30 | 36 |
Reed Mahoney hasn’t lived up to the Supercoach hype in Townsville, and now he isn’t even getting 80 minutes with Soni Luke coming on in the last 20 minutes of the match.
He is the 9th most traded-out player for the top 1%, with the most trades going to Blayke Brailey.
Whilst the Sharks’ performances haven’t been great, Blayke Brailey is still punching 82, 60 and 90 points to start the season.
With Harry Grant scoring 47 in a loss for the Storm, and Brailey with a low of 60 against a Penrith side that only allowed his side to score 1 try; he does seem a better option.
Nonetheless, Grant still commands 95% ownership among the top 1%… one to keep an eye on as a POD play.
Named on the bench, Ioelu is in limbo as he still needs to play and crack 10 points for his breakeven.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Payne Haas | $837,700 | 82.20% | -13.90% | 85 | 82 |
| Taniela Paseka | $328,600 | 45.50% | 11.10% | 56 | -6 |
| Jackson Ford | $669,800 | 31.40% | 29.10% | 97 | -7 |
| Keaon Koloamatangi | $661,000 | 18.40% | -1.10% | 69 | 82 |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | $557,100 | 17.00% | 10.00% | 72 | 27 |
| Thomas Flegler | $346,200 | 9.70% | -4.70% | 36 | 40 |
| Myles Martin | $201,400 | 8.50% | 0.00% | 0 | 22 |
| Terrell May | $811,300 | 6.10% | -1.60% | 74 | 113 |
| Ethan Roberts | $201,400 | 3.50% | 0.20% | 0 | 22 |
| Alex Twal | $488,500 | 2.30% | 2.30% | 68 | 21 |
| Cooper Clarke | $226,700 | 2.10% | -0.70% | 32 | 11 |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | $611,500 | 2.00% | -1.60% | 57 | 92 |
| Simione Laiafi | $201,400 | 1.00% | -0.50% | 0 | 22 |
| Tui Kamikamica | $278,700 | 0.90% | -0.10% | 39 | 17 |
| James Fisher-Harris | $566,800 | 0.80% | 0.30% | 70 | 45 |
| Bunty Afoa | $235,600 | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0 | 25 |
| Naufahu Whyte | $559,600 | 0.70% | -0.50% | 52 | 76 |
| Sebastian Sua | $216,800 | 0.40% | -0.30% | 0 | 23 |
| Joseph Tapine | $644,000 | 0.40% | -0.30% | 51 | 96 |
| Josh King | $481,300 | 0.20% | 0.00% | 51 | 56 |
| Hame Sele | $264,000 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 37 | 11 |
Payne Haas was a shock omission ahead for Round 4, and his undisclosed return timeline has the top 1% panic selling.
He ranks 2nd for trade-outs this week, with most Supercoaches downgrading to the in-form Jackson Ford or using him to bring in Reece Walsh.
Jackson Ford is the top traded-in player for the top 1% this week, killing it with consecutive tons helped by a try in each of those games.
My problem with Ford is that his minutes could be taken away by Mitch Barnett; and while the Morgan Gannon injury benefited Ford’s minutes against the Knights last week, it will be interesting moving forward.
But new owners will be thrilled to get at least another $70k out of him, which might be needed to bring back Payne Haas.
The 4th most traded-in player is someone I agree with, Stefano Utoikamanu.
Job security, minutes security, and he is delivering a 72-point average without any try involvement.
Trey Mooney (named in the 2RF table below) is the most traded-out player in the top 1%.
I would imagine with the FRF situation, this is a forced trade, because Mooney is only missing a week with suspension and scored 41 points in base in 44 minutes last week (10 minutes and points, deducted due to his sin bin).
If you are able, he’s a hold.
Embed from Getty Images| Player Name | Price | Own % | Change | Avg | BE |
| Noah Martin | $380,100 | 95.50% | 2.80% | 80 | -3 |
| David Fifita | $525,000 | 94.70% | -0.10% | 68 | 31 |
| Joe Chan | $444,100 | 85.60% | 43.50% | 89 | -37 |
| Arama Hau | $315,700 | 75.10% | 13.80% | 58 | -17 |
| Heilum Luki | $472,900 | 68.50% | 2.00% | 72 | 32 |
| Trey Mooney | $483,300 | 65.30% | -22.60% | 64 | 56 |
| Angus Crichton | $585,400 | 57.00% | -2.40% | 55 | 77 |
| Isaah Yeo | $622,400 | 49.70% | 10.00% | 70 | 51 |
| Ryan Couchman | $335,100 | 45.50% | -10.30% | 66 | -21 |
| Jesse Colquhoun | $378,700 | 42.40% | -7.10% | 55 | 1 |
| Ativalu Lisati | $269,400 | 32.10% | -21.20% | 72 | 48 |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | $542,100 | 24.10% | 6.80% | 86 | -1 |
| Jacob Preston | $684,600 | 9.50% | -1.00% | 88 | 45 |
| Cooper Bai | $257,700 | 9.20% | -4.80% | 34 | 5 |
| Cameron Murray | $564,100 | 8.80% | -5.10% | 65 | 57 |
| Patrick Carrigan | $636,600 | 8.70% | 1.10% | 68 | 52 |
| Hudson Young | $750,900 | 5.90% | 1.40% | 79 | 88 |
| Hamish Stewart | $432,600 | 5.20% | -0.90% | 56 | 26 |
| Leka Halasima | $540,100 | 4.70% | -0.70% | 69 | 4 |
| Toby Couchman | $562,800 | 4.00% | -8.50% | 52 | 96 |
Joe Chan has been the most popular trade-in this week, with nearly 30,000 Supercoaches moving to him from Ativalu Lisati or Ryan Couchman.
It is pretty hard to look past Chan, who has the highest 2RF average from a 3-game player this season; and when you’re playing for the Storm, and alongside Jahrome Hughes, matchups don’t really matter.
Ryan Couchman is the 3rd most traded-out player this week for the top 1% of teams, after being handed a 4-week suspension.
With a -21 breakeven and $65k projected price rise, he is one of those players that if you can afford to hold him, do it, but if not, probably he’d be a sell.
Arama Hau has flown under the radar, increasing in ownership by 14% among the top 1% of Supercoach teams – ranking 7th for trade-ins this week.
He is getting 80 minutes week in, week out; and it seems that Josh Hannay is sticking strong with the Titans 1-13… for now.
Not a bad pick-up, averaging 58 points and available to cover if down on 2RF coverage.
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