Niko’s AFL Supercoach Watchlist: Buy, Hold, Sell round 4

Another nice score of 1921 see’s me climb into rank 2,889.

However, I’m a little short on premiums this week with Sinclair, Whitfield, Callaghan and Flanders all out, plus the Xerri issue to resolve.

I’ll be trading, and potentially boosting, to try and keep the momentum going but also value hunting.

Become a member of the SC Playbook community by subscribing for less than $2 per week! Gain access to additional premium articles on site every week, our Discord community, prize money and plenty more. Check it out here.

Buy

Josh Lindsay ($122,500 West Coast DEF, B/E -59)

The number one bubble buy this week.  Back in the team and on some kick outs which is nice.  Great user of the footy and the team had a great win so expect he holds his spot now.

Tom Stewart ($528,100 Geelong DEF, B/E 59)

Is premium Stew back?  Will the tags come again?  Will his body continue to hold up?  

Too many questions for mine but he’s at a good enough price if you want to take the risk.

Embed from Getty Images

Colby McKercher ($445,400 North Melbourne DEF, B/E 67)

I liked what I saw on the weekend.  Back in the preferred role off half back, with kick ins, a spike in TOG and his teammates feeding him the ball with 19 handball receives.  He now looks ready to deliver like what he did post bye last year, and that’s good enough for me to lock him into my defence as D6 at a cheap price.

Luke Parker ($513,800 North Melbourne MID, B/E 75)

The Shinboners love affair with veterans playing off half back continues.  The only issue I have is that Parker is so capable as an inside mid or forward so the role can change at any moment, especially if injuries hit.  Has nearly played 100% defence to date.

Embed from Getty Images

Bailey Smith ($629,500 Geelong MID, B/E 82)

Back in a big way with 172 against the Crows.  I can’t trust that he won’t be a late out multiple times this season, but no denying he’s a great POD at only 3% owned.

Jordan Clark ($562,600 Fremantle DEF, B/E 84)

The poor 75 score from round 1 will drop off now and he’s looking good. A great option for those looking to move a rookie defender to the bench come best 22 in round 5.  Next month looks elite for his scoring capability and fairly priced.

Embed from Getty Images

Max Holmes ($604,800 Geelong MID, B/E 95)

I didn’t think he was particularly good last week but still scored 121 thanks to a big third quarter.  He gets around the ground so well, teammates use him, and he kicks it more often than not making him a great and reliable Supercoach asset.  

Nick Daicos ($638,200 Collingwood MID, B/E 101)

The number one CBA mid with multiple scoring avenues and pedigree coming off a 150.  The 6-day break and a date with Berry are the only negatives.

Embed from Getty Images

Tim English ($606,100 Western Bulldogs RUC, B/E 117)

Seems like the best Xerri replacement for non-owners.  The rules affect him the least being great around the ground and getting into transition and scoring chains, plus you should get a nice sugar hit this week against Essendon.  Round 16 bye helps and you save $80k for future trades choosing him over Gawn.  Luke Jackson and Brodie Grundy also serious options to consider.

Hold

Jack Lukosius ($242,100 Port Adelaide FWD, B/E -62)

Good scores against the Bombers and West Coast…  Yes Richmond is next, but I don’t think the fixtures are there post that to make serious cash.  It only takes one bad game to completely ruin everything like it did with Tanner Bruhn last week.

Jake Rogers ($179,800 Gold Coast FWD, B/E -60)

Our forward rookies are pretty stacked, so I don’t see the need to go sideways and trade into him.  He could easily drop a poor one like Lombard did.

Embed from Getty Images

Chayce Jones ($119,900 Adelaide MID, B/E -53)

I’m not convinced that he’s in the best Crows team and coming off a 38 score I’m not interested.

Zane Zakostelsky ($119,900 Brisbane DEF/RUC, B/E -47)

Handy DPP but if you didn’t start with him, I wouldn’t trade him in if named.  Likely to lose his spot when Andrews returns from suspension in round 5.

Ned Reeves ($242,400 Hawthorn RUC, B/E -46)

Splitting the ruck time with Meek and only playing 50% TOG, big pass unless Meek is dropped or injured.

Embed from Getty Images

Christopher Scerri ($99,100 Fremantle MID/FWD, B/E -45)

I don’t want to be trading into someone who was on 1SC at half time against Richmond.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he loses his spot.

Hugh Bond ($167,800 Adelaide DEF, B/E – 35)

Should still hold his spot even with Hinge likely back in but he’s a lockdown defender.

Oscar Steene ($119,900 Collingwood RUC/FWD, B/E -34)

The golden rule in Supercoach, don’t go early.  Very impressive against the Giants and will likely hold his spot in the short-term but wait for next week.

Willem Duursma ($270,000 West Coast MID, B/E -33)

I think the ship has sailed here.

Embed from Getty Images

Mattaes Phillipou ($185,400 St Kilda FWD, B/E 6)

On the bye and I see his name on the trade outs list.  Low breakeven and an expectation of increased TOG after their bye makes him an easy hold IMO.

Leonardo Lombard ($153,400 Gold Coast FWD, B/E 16)

Provided he holds his spot I’ll be holding him.  I don’t want to be too reactive with my rookies.

Dyson Sharp ($149,500 Essendon MID, B/E 17)

The Bombers fans need some hope for the future and playing this guy more and in the CBAs might bring that.  I’m holding as he looks set to return from his ankle injury.

Tanner Bruhn ($314,300 Geelong MID, B/E 29)

I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt due to the hit, bloody nose and low TOG that resulted.  

Embed from Getty Images

Caleb Windsor ($283,300 Melbourne DEF, B/E 51)

MID DPP will come in handy, and I’d lean to holding him for another two weeks (Gold Coast & Essendon).  If you don’t see a 85+ from him after that, move him on.

Marcus Bontempelli ($709,800 Western Bulldogs MID, B/E 118)

Can you buy into another $700k player after the Xerri play so epically failed last week?  If you don’t have a reliable captain option maybe the answer is yes and you plonk the C on him against the Bombers and sleep easy.  For me, I’m value hunting and there’s not much meat on the bone here, so I’ll wait for a poorish score to come and the subsequent price drops.

Touk Miller ($586,600 Gold Coast MID, B/E 127)

He will get FWD status but I don’t see the rush in getting him ahead of the pack, especially with the big breakeven and price.

Embed from Getty Images

Sell

Tristan Xerri ($682,500 North Melbourne RUC, B/E 136)

From masterclass to disaster class and a three-week suspension (lucky it wasn’t more).  Too much money to hold, unless McAndrew is stuck at R3 and you’re a league player.

Darcy Parish ($347,700 Essendon MID, B/E 71)

I spoke of the fan hope for the future earlier with Sharp, this guy doesn’t bring that.  We started him with the hope of a high floor and the potential for a ceiling game early.  Neither has come, and the pace of the game seems to have gone past him.

Embed from Getty Images

Lachlan Blakiston ($301,100 Essendon DEF, B/E 53)

Dropping 60’s as lead ruck and Nick Bryan is returning via the VFL this week.  A failed experiment much like how Sam De Koning was last season.