Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 9?

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Team insights and SuperCoach analysis
• DRAFT BREAKDOWN: Waiver-wire targets, Round 9

Is start/sit the most underrated area of SuperCoach?

These decisions can have as much impact on overall scoring as trades and captaincy.

However, they’re perhaps a little less exciting, being players on the fringe of our 17s. They can also be excruciating when they backfire, resulting in a giant score on our bench staring us in the face all weekend.

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I’m looking to build this as a weekly article looking at these decisions.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last 3 rounds and 5 rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen the most owned players based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.  

I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

I’ve ranked Curran at the top of this list, based on his floor and matchup. He’s shown the ability to get attacking stats and has a favourable matchup on the left edge vs Manly.

So, I have him marginally above Schuster. For those that still own big Tino, I’m tipping him to have a strong game returning from injury, so I have him next.  

Cody Walker could be a sit this week, due to a tough matchup against the Storm. Although, I’m expecting him to play the sweeping role on both sides of the field with Latrell still out, helping his case.

SuperCoaches with Burton may be looking to cash him in soon. However, I think he’s still a decent play this week.

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Simpkin showed great attacking prowess in NSW Cup, although this hasn’t translated to NRL just yet. I have him above Riki and Lodge. I then have Riki marginally ahead of Lodge, based on the left-edge matchup.

I somehow completely forgot Sam Walker in this list! Perhaps it’s because he’s no longer a borderline play, but a set-and-forget in our 17s.

If you think the Eels can contain the Roosters, sitting Sam for this week could be an option. The Blue and Gold were conceding 49 points to right halves for rounds 1 – 7 and Kyle Flanagan only scored 29 against them in round 8.

It would take a strong 17 and a brave SuperCoach off the back of Sam’s last two performances though! Granted his floors are low (lower floor = 14, mid floor = 20, upper floor is around 32). 

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Curran
2	Schuster
3	Fa’asuamaleaui
4	Watson
5	C Walker
6	Burton
7	Simpkin
8	Riki
9	Lodge
10	Condon
11	Utoikamanu
12	Leniu

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Season Ave
Curran	45	51	51	66
Schuster	40	50	52	67
Fa’asuamaleaui	46	53	53	55
Watson	43	49	49	63
C Walker	19	26	26	74
Burton	26	32	32	62
Simpkin	45	46	46	46
Riki*	39	43	44	49
Lodge**	39	48	48	49
Condon	29	33	33	49
Utoikamanu	34	38	38	44
Leniu	30	33	33	35

* Stats for starting games only

**Adjusted for injured game, based on base/power points per minutes & average mins from other games

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1 – 7 opp. Points allowed	Rd 8 opp. Points allowed
Curran	Sea Eagles	Left 2RF	75	23
Schuster	Warriors	Left 2RF	59	23
Fa’asuamaleaui	Tigers	Prop***	65	58
Watson	Raiders	Lock	49	NA (injury)
C Walker	Storm	Flb?	59	53
Burton	Sharks	Right Ctr	55	59
Simpkin	Titans	Hk	47	26
Riki	Cowboys	Left 2RF	61	66
Lodge	Cowboys	Prop***	58	43
Condon	Broncos	Left 2RF	68	66
Utoikamanu	Titans	Prop***	50	54
Leniu	Sharks	Prop***	58	54

***Average of two starting opposition props

CTW

I’ve got Laurie firmly planted in my 17 following last week’s performance. His floor is solid and the matchup against the Titans is favourable. It’s less favourable for Nofoaluma on the wing. However, I still have him above others due to his floor.

I have Hynes above the likes of Kelly and Ferguson. Nicho’s base stats are lower than these two. Nonetheless, he’s averaging 73 when starting fullback for the Storm and the matchup looks decent. This also suggests he could be a trade-in this week for those who don’t have other priorities.

Max Feagai put in a big base stat performance last week for a winger. Consequently, I have him the highest ranked of the cheap CTWs. If you have the likes of Simonsson / Staines / Saab in your 17, they could be a trade to Feagai this week. It is only a one game sample for Max though.

I also have Cini above them as a play. He was leading the NSW Cup in tackle breaks coming into last round, although this didn’t translate to similar stats in the NRL.

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Laurie
2	Nofoaluma
3	Hynes
4	Kelly
5	Ferguson
6	Max Feagai
7	Cini
8	Simonsson
9	Staines
10	Saab

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Season Ave
Laurie	25	36	37	63
Nofoaluma	26	41	42	57
Hynes*	18	26	26	73
Kelly	26	35	35	50
Ferguson	29	41	42	65
Max Feagai**	33	41	41	51
Cini**	14	22	22	59
Simonsson***	23	28	28	29
Staines	15	19	20	33
Saab	13	16	16	31

*Stats for starting games only

**One game sample

***Stats adjusted by removing injured game

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1 – 7 opp. Points allowed	Rd 8 opp. Points allowed
Laurie	Titans	FLB	74	156
Nofoaluma	Titans	R Wing	41	55
Hynes*	Rabbitohs	FLB	68	59
Kelly	Tigers	L Centre	41	28
Ferguson	Roosters	R Wing	36	32
Max Feagai**	Bulldogs	R Wing	71	33
Cini**	Titans	L Wing	62	49
Simonsson***	Knights	R Wing	46	88
Staines	Sharks	R Wing	32	17
Saab	Warriors	R Wing	59	30

So, there you have it. A few permutations for start/sit this week, that may also impact your trade decisions. As mentioned earlier, I’m keen to make this a weekly piece. If you have any feedback or suggestions let me know.

Enjoy round 9!

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[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/