Draft analysis: 2022 strategies and tips to success

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We are back for another year of draft for 2022 and we are kicking off the season with some strategies and tips to consider.

We’ve seen a fair bit of change in both NRL and SuperCoach over the last few years and as they say, we have to adapt or die.

At the moment we are filled with hopes and dreams as we have a clean slate to pick the perfect draft team.

This article is intended to give you some tips to make the best day of the year, draft day, even better.

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2022 strategy changes

The 2021 NRL season was one of the highest scoring seasons in NRL history. Most matches ended up as a 40-12 score line compared to the 20-12 score lines we were used to before 2020.

This means the more attacking players and sides became even more valuable in SuperCoach.

The base stats we relied upon for so many years are now almost inconsequential. It’s still good to have base to prevent the really poor scores, but it isn’t a top consideration when picking a player anymore.

The high ceiling players are becoming more valuable and 2021 saw the elite CTWs become extremely valuable for SuperCoach points.

The best forwards in the game are at their lowest value in terms of SuperCoach. A few years ago we were talking about Haas, Matto and Jurbo as great options.

Now we just need average Joe’s in our team that will pump out 40-50 points each week.

Last year Haas averaged 68 points per game and had the 2nd best average for FRFs.

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Tui Kamikamica averaged 48 points per game and was ranked 30th based on average points, averaging 20 points below Haas.

Brian To’o averaged 84 points per game last year and had the 2nd best average for CTW.

Maika Sivo averaged 55 points and was ranked 30th based on average points, averaging 29 points below To’o.

That’s a 9 point difference from the 30th ranked CTWs to 30th ranked FRFs.

I know 9 points isn’t a lot, but over 24 rounds, with x4 CTWS it will add up.

The stats show that CTWs are more valuable than FRF/2RFs and the difference between the top CTWs and bottom is significant compared to the top FRFs/2RFs and bottom.

However, attacking forwards such as David Fifita and TPJ are exceptions to this rule and I wouldn’t mind spending high draft picks on these attacking forwards.

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Draft CTWs before FRF/2RFs

This is a big change from previous years where you often left CTWs as the last position you drafted.

We also saw the elite spine players become more valuable. The difference between the good spine players and bottom spine players has always been an issue, but in 2020 and 2021 we saw the gap widen further.

The 2022 season will be similar and draft players should be targeting high ceiling players more than ever before, especially if they are playing captains and vice-captain rules.

Of course these players could cost you a game with an inevitable low score, but there are more opportunities for them to get attacking stats and carry you to a win.

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Target good teams

The huge score lines we’ve now come accustomed to seeing obviously means players in those teams are getting more SuperCoach points.

Players that should be average SuperCoach players are becoming great options simply for being in a good team.

Jason Saab would be an awful SuperCoach player in nearly any team, but in Manly (outside Turbo) he is genuine game winner for draft teams.

Targeting backline players in good teams should be a priority. Players in the Roosters, Storm, Panthers and Manly will be my target this year.

Conversely, I don’t see the Cowboys, Tigers, Knights and Titans scoring a heap of points this year and I will be generally avoiding backs in these teams.

This is a good rule you should apply when drafting and wavering through the season.

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SuperCoach changes

At the time of writing there have been no changes to the scoring system, but the Daily Telegraph have said they will reassess player’s SuperCoach positions throughout the year.

This could potentially cause some chaos throughout the season but it shouldn’t affect your drafting strategy too much.

However, be mindful if we start seeing players training or trialing in valuable positions outside of their SuperCoach position we may be able to get ahead of rivals.

E.g. A few years ago we saw Angus Crichton play centre in the World Club Challenge. If I saw that this year, I would shoot him up my draft rankings in the hope he gets CTW status when the Daily Telegraph reassess the positions.

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Prepping for draft, finding value

People do many things to help them on draft day, from a full out spreadsheet of all the players, to the simple pre-draft list on the SuperCoach website, to scribbles on a piece of paper with a few select players.

Personally, I have a cheat sheet of players I want to get and what round I would target them.

As long as you have some form of plan, I think any prep method could work.

The best thing you can do is be adaptable on draft day. Players you want are going to go really early and players you don’t want are going to sit there later than you expected.

You have to try and find value wherever you can and not go early on players you could get a few rounds later.

E.g. You are five picks away from your turn and want to draft a CTW. You line up Reuben Garrick for your next pick and just in case you have Brian To’o as your backup pick.

By the time it gets to you both those players and the two next best CTWs have been taken.

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The next CTW you have on your list is Jordan Rapana who you can get much later in the draft.

You have to look at another position that people haven’t drafted in and still have value for that early in the draft.

I expect this will happen in the first round this year with so many elite fullback options.

If you are at the back end of the first round there’s no point getting the 5-6th best fullback when you could get one of the elite half or even CTW options.

Another example of adaptability is recognising that every player should have a point you are willing to take them.

E.g. If you believe Ponga is going to score poorly this year but he is still sitting on the board at the end of round 3, you have to think even a poor scoring Ponga is worth a 3rd round pick.

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First three picks

I always think it’s valuable trying to pick two spine players in your first three picks.

In an ideal draft I would target an elite half and an elite fullback.

I don’t think this year is any different from the above guidelines.

The only thing that has changed is that you may consider some of the elite CTWs as one of your first three picks.

As mentioned previously, it’s fairly easy to find any FRF and 2RF that will do a job for you, so don’t go early on these positions.

Also don’t go too hard at HOK if the elite options get chosen early.

Finally, look at finals matchups before drafting, especially the grand final match ups. This will have a big affect on your chances of winning the draft and should influence your draft rankings.