Spy Talk: Tackling the week’s big questions, Round 1

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Analysing the Round 1 SuperCoach teams
• ROOKIE COMMANDMENTS: No place for heart in SuperCoach

Well… Don’t look now, but it’s nearly here troops. The 2022 NRL Season!!

It’s doesn’t get much better and from a Supercoach sense it really seems to be one of the more exciting openings to a comp because they are so many different ways to go tactically.

And to be honest I see multiple avenues to early success, so don’t lose faith in yourself just because someone is going another way.

Personally I still haven’t fully decided what I want to do. I wanted Cleary if named. I also really want Sammy Walker. I probably can’t afford both but would like to. With Cleary now out it’s Walker time.

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Turbo is a no for me early, but is more appealing now that Nathan is out.. I think cash generation is simply too vital given the amount of guns we will all want in our final 17s.

This may backfire but given Tommy may have to average up around 120-130+ to be worth it it’s a big ask, especially with wet conditions and Penrith in round 1.

It will be a nervous watch though especially in round 3 and any additional weeks I don’t own him. My number one target no doubt in about Round 5-6 .

I spend a bit of last week trying to think deeply around some ideas I have had. Here they are below.

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1. As mentioned above, money I think is so vital this year!

There are so many good players to get. Turbo, Cleary, Fifita, Papi, Teddy, Cody, Garrick, To’o and more.

Further to this, if points in games drop back a little on the back on less six-agains, that would generally mean price drops for all the elite guns, so maybe starting with too many super elite guys is a risk and not starting with a few superstars could see you make money with mid-range options.

The way it may play out (at least I hope so) is that a few mid-range guys could make say $100-200k, and then you can pick up some true elites like Turbo and Cleary at $100-200k cheaper.

That’s potentially around $400k per player if you nail it and is equivalent to buying Cleary off the bat at $580k!!

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This comes with risk of a few less points early of course, which is always the risk of not owning these kind of guys. Will the game change dramatically?

Probably not, but I do suspect that the six-again count may be down a bit more than 2021 which could see a slight reduction in total points. This is purely speculation however.

If you do own Tommy, one thing I would really prefer not do is use two trades to drop him in round 3 and then bring them back. It’s ride or die once in unless maybe if his breakeven got to around 300-400 of course.

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The flip side of this is of course that if points come down a little then mid-rangers may have less chance to make money.

This is why I like the idea of worker type forwards with minute increases on the cards who don’t necessarily rely on attacking stats too much.

There are still some really good options at centre however who rely on attack who are classed at cheapish to mid-range.

You only need them to score one or two in a game for profits to emerge, but can you get the right ones?

Coates, Naiqama, Penisini, Russell to name a few that I have in my side to partner Staggs and likely Tupou.

The more I write this the more I think I hedge my bets with a couple of mid-rangers and then go a few potential upside guys like Josh Curran and Dan Tupou.

It’s still attacking in this way, but it leaves room for potential growth and an opportunity to pick up Turbo and a few other guns mentioned above at a discount.

Even $100k cheaper on average across six guys is a lot of money. And if the guys you sell make you $100k each then you are suddenly $1.2m better off!! Maybe that is ambitious, but it shows what can happen.

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2.  Rain!

It’s has been flooding as we know. If it’s still super wet come round 1 that hurts attacks no doubt.

But if it’s just a little bit of rain it might not be so bad. Again, this could give value to workers early on.

The forecast seems to be that the really heavy stuff could be gone, but it could still be slippery and heavy under foot.

I don’t think it will have enormous consequences as a result, but it certainly adds to the chance of a few less opening weekend tries.

3. More Turbo talk…

Back to Turbo because he is such a vital topic and I’ll throw a stat out that scares me as a non-owner and should give confidence to those starting him.

The stat – Tommy had 3x 200s in his last eight games of 2021. Five of those games were 170+! Goodness….

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4. Souths players

Their draw is horrendous from rounds 2-4. Like truley bad. I’m avoiding Cody and AJ and these guys early.

The Broncos game could see them tee off, but if the Brissy boys can keep them half in check then they will surely be outstanding value in rounds 6 or 7! Ilias is okay due to being so cheap and with the ability not to play him.

5. Value first

Above all I would recommend looking for value. If your team can score decently and make money early I think you will be nicely set up for the season ahead.

Round 1 is going to be so vital for Turbo. It’s the big watch of the week. A score of 90-110+ would be massive for owners. A score of 50 would set his BE through the roof. Souths are similar.

The Cowboys forwards rotation is an unknown and will be critical. I haven’t gone cold on Nanai and Luki, but I am considering just watching and picking up the best of the two in round 3. If not both!

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6. Looking elsewhere

How will teams handle Fifita? First stop Canterbury!

The Chooks, well they could be very good. I’m excited to watch them and really like Teddy this year if the great man can stay healthy. A good combination with Tupou would be ideal.

And finally. Lil Papi (Papenhuyzen) Does he play? We may not know until 1]one hour out from the game on Saturday. A quick switch to King Gutherson is on the cards to get me out of the blocks.

It’s safe to say I’m pumped and will have a final team reveal Wednesday or Thursday after I make a couple of key decisions following team lists.

Cheers legends, good luck and like I remind myself, just enjoy the footy because you won’t be able to get all decisions right and there is plenty of time to fix up any early errors!

It’s not won in Round 1, but gee it’s nice to start hot.

Spy