Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 3

• MONEY MOVERS: Players to trade/target to up cap value
• WEEKLY WRAP: Round 2 studs, duds, injuries

It is time for another edition of pain points and gain points – the metric that looks at the most highly owned players and explains why you are charging up or tumbling down the rankings.

We are essentially taking each player’s over and under performance and multiplying this by the ownership rate.

Check out last week’s article for a more detailed explainer on the methodology here.

The difference for this week is that we will use the week two ownership numbers by each player’s week two score (the pain and gain points will reflect the whole season) – and still no rookies.

With prices set to move from next week, it’s time to hit that trade boost button and start burning trades. These are some of the most critical decisions you will make all year.

Sign up to SC Playbook for stacks of extra premium articles across the AFL season, including access to our contributor inclusive Whatsapp group where your SuperCoach dilemmas can be answered minutes before kick off!

Embed from Getty Images

The gainers:

• Not owning these guys may be the reason your ranking is not where you want it to be. You probably want to own at least five or six of these guys as we move into round three (unless all your PODs are working – but who are we kidding there!).
• A big score from Neale (198) puts him atop this list and congrats if you had him as captain. He should already be in your team, but get him in if you don’t have him.
• The Carlton midfielders (Cripps and Hewett) scored well again and will be popular trade targets this week – can they keep up the scoring though?
• About 14,000 coaches traded in Rowell this week and would have been disappointed with a score only slightly above his price point (the majority of gain points are from round one). A good lesson to not chase points, but I would still back him to work out in the long run.
• Caldwell is an interesting option here as he is performing well above his price point (+40 points) with relatively low ownership (15%).

Name	Own R1	Score R1	Own R2	Score R2	Price	Exp. Score	Pain/Gain Pts
Lachie Neale	54%	140	54%	198	$ 543,200	100	11,439,766
S. Coniglio	75%	80	75%	99	$ 261,300	48	9,581,305
Matt Rowell	51%	157	60%	71	$ 342,900	63	8,118,788
Patrick Cripps	35%	132	37%	162	$ 454,800	84	7,040,270
Zak Butters	47%	114	48%	136	$ 443,600	82	6,371,517
Will Brodie	40%	76	39%	101	$ 224,300	41	5,637,231
George Hewett	32%	131	39%	117	$ 399,000	73	5,414,343
Isaac Heeney	20%	141	24%	140	$ 454,500	84	3,780,440
Jayden Short	31%	109	31%	136	$ 535,200	98	2,273,183
Jye Caldwell	15%	91	15%	90	$ 266,700	49	1,902,533

The painful:

• Gawn, Whitfield and to a lesser extent Steele have all underperformed and loom as the big trade out decisions. Having all three of these players in your team (like I do …) has cost you about 80 points per week. The good thing is that they are in a lot of other teams so you are not alone. Hanging on to them now or bailing out could make or break your season – good luck to you.
• Mitchell owners wouldn’t be happy after two weeks of scoring in the 80s. This probably won’t continue, but he might not be worth the $638k you paid for him either. Think about a trade if you don’t have bigger issues in your side.
• The remainder may have redeemed themselves with scores above 100 and should be safe in your team for now. Every player will have down weeks, they just happened to have theirs in round one and should remain at their higher round two scores (we hope anyway!).

Name	Own R1	Score R1	Own R2	Score R2	Price	Exp. Score	Pain/Gain Pts
Max Gawn	60%	92	53%	88	$ 657,400	121	-5,318,073
Lachie Whitfield	53%	73	51%	70	$ 502,600	92	-3,328,169
Jack Steele	36%	87	33%	111	$ 685,800	126	-2,878,310
Jack Crisp	40%	69	36%	121	$ 571,000	105	-1,324,294
Jordan Ridley	22%	68	21%	102	$ 537,100	99	-951,969
Tom Mitchell	8%	80	7%	82	$ 638,100	117	-858,163
Clayton Oliver	32%	112	32%	121	$ 672,000	124	-692,997
M. Bontempelli	13%	105	12%	105	$ 651,700	120	-557,559
Brodie Grundy	49%	124	49%	101	$ 627,100	115	-414,078
N. Naitanui	5%	63	4%	na	$ 627,400	115	-385,149

Pat and George from Mortgage Choice SCW are experts in all types of loans, so if you’re looking to purchase your first home or chase the lowest refinance rate, call on (02) 9521 1611, mention ‘SC Playbook’ for your FREE tailored expert advice session!