Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 9

It was back to normal in round 8 with a score of 2,250+ generally enough to see you rise in the rankings.

We had some big scores from familiar names but also a few shockers to bring us down to earth (let’s hope it wasn’t someone you just used three trades to get!).

To understand which players are driving the rankings, let’s take another look at pain and gain points. Check out the round one article for a more detailed explainer on the pain/gain methodology here.

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From a trade point of view, we want to be targeting value priced premiums (looking at you Brayshaw, Dawson, Petracca, Wines, Lloyd) and moving on rookies that have peaked in price (Ward, Rachelle, O’Driscoll, Horne-Francis).

Just be sure you are keeping enough points on the field – if you add a premium but have to field a low scoring rookie rather than a high scoring rookie – you haven’t gained all that much.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on the byes and not overloading a particular week (round 12 in particular).

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The gainers:

• If you didn’t start Brodie (or traded him last week after one lower score) then it might be time to pack up your team. The same could be said for Coniglio (70 points) who had a quieter week, but still produced well above the price you paid for him.
• Cripps rewarded the roughly 14,000 coaches that traded him in with a massive score of 151. He is well and truly looking like a must have (also likely leading the Brownlow) and was good value last week at $526k and might still be value this week at $580k.
• Jarrod Witts is ranked 7^th in total season points (I had to double checked that) and has exceeded all expectations. Will he keep scoring like this all year? And do we cash out if his scores drop off – a question for another a day.
• Charlie Curnow (149 points) – welcome to the party – is looking a shrewd pickup having gained more value than most rookies and being in just 10% of teams and 2% of the top 1000.

Full Name	Price Current Round	Owned Current Round	Owned Top 1000 %	Points Current Round	Pain Gain Current Round	Pain / Gain Total
Will Brodie	$466,600	52%	93%	115	5,758,760	32,499,776
Patrick Cripps	$580,700	55%	79%	151	5,585,223	19,157,371
James Sicily	$569,900	40%	72%	132	3,090,308	13,444,226
Stephen Coniglio	$452,000	76%	99%	70	2,627,927	45,175,101
Lachie Neale	$663,000	69%	99%	123	2,431,533	29,800,295
Jarrod Witts	$595,600	26%	40%	132	2,239,239	11,502,323
Charlie Curnow	$418,000	10%	2%	149	1,649,681	5,429,007
Matt Rowell	$437,000	36%	36%	88	1,445,697	18,643,619
Jack Macrae	$630,200	53%	86%	144	1,334,458	-2,337,683
Clayton Oliver	$661,400	41%	69%	135	931,653	318,475

The painful:

• Gawn had a down week (82 points) but is still the 5^th highest scoring player for the year so not someone you would trade out. The more interesting decision for Gawn was whether to take an alternative vice-captain score (e.g. Neale at 123) or risk the captaincy on Gawn – a lesson not to get greedy. Nevertheless, a win for those rocking Preuss and Hayes in round 8.
• Dunkley had a down week (78) but is in such a high proportion of teams that it wouldn’t have hurt too much if you had him. You are still well ahead on the year for starting him.
• Tom Stewart (74), Steele (75) and Callum Mills (60) gave us examples of why we don’t chase points and bring players in at their peak or greater value. These scores probably won’t lower their price enough to bring in and may leave them still out of reach for now.
• What do we do with Butters (52)? It seems a coin toss between scoring 50 or 100+ and he is not priced high enough to trade sideways. He is also in a huge percentage of top 1000 teams so could be a good one to bet against in an attempt to gain some ground. Most likely scenario for me is to trade him out at his bye with another underperformer (i.e. Whitfield).

Full Name	Price Current Round	Owned Current Round	Owned Top 1000 %	Points Current Round	Pain Gain Current Round	Pain / Gain Total
Max Gawn	$669,400	49%	60%	82	-3,048,952	-1,477,273
Josh Dunkley	$600,100	63%	95%	78	-2,512,271	8,035,794
Jack Steele	$637,100	31%	47%	75	-2,507,327	-5,000,836
Zak Butters	$421,400	44%	77%	52	-2,073,070	2,962,362
Tom Stewart	$609,200	22%	22%	74	-1,192,952	1,135,779
Isaac Heeney	$511,600	47%	57%	75	-808,194	9,449,358
Callum Mills	$686,400	7%	10%	60	-684,221	-217,950
Tom Mitchell	$526,700	5%	3%	40	-648,051	-2,013,482

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