Data analysis: Structure check up

The byes are one week closer and will be pivotal to how your end of year ranking ends up. I will take a similar look as last week at how the top 1,000 is structured and what the generic team made up of the most picked players looks like.

A score of around 2,350 would have held you in good stead last week as we saw some big scores and ever improving teams (congrats if you held Coniglio and captained Oliver!). Definitely think about the byes for any trades this week and even plan out how you will upgrade your team. You want to have enough cash left over to upgrade each spot (so think about this before spending $600k+ on a given player).

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Bye Structures:

The table below shows the average number of players and points that the top teams would field in each bye round with their current teams. 

Round 12 was looking particularly low for players and points but this looks to have levelled out somewhat. Generally speaking, coaches seem to have traded out a round 12 bye player and traded in a round 13 bye player. The most common move looks to have been trading out N. Martin / Coniglio / Steele for G. Clark or a midfield premium (Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw etc.). These two rounds are now looking equally lower scoring with round 14 expected to be a very strong.

I will be looking to set up my team with a slight advantage heading into each of these rounds and will not be holding back on any trades – this is the time to make some moves up the rankings.

Byes	Rd 12	Rd 13	Rd 14
Avg. no. of Scoring Players	17.9	18.2	21.1
Avg. no. Premium / Keeper Players	12.3	13.0	13.2
Sum of scoring players points avg.	1745.6	1806.0	1961.2

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Premium Count:

In terms of team structure, we can see the count per line of premium players for our top teams.

There doesn’t appear to have been too drastic a change in terms of premiums added or fielded average points compared to last week (2,324 to 2,315). The main change is that the model thinks Coniglio and Butters are keepers again (average over 90). How you answer this will probably play a key part in how the rest of your year goes. Keep or trade?

Expect coaches to fill out their team over the next few weeks with roughly one premium defender, midfielder and forward remaining.

Structure	DEF	MID	RUC	FWD	Total
Scoring Players Avg	7.5	10.4	3.0	7.7	28.6
Premium / Keeper Avg	5.3	7.1	2.0	4.8	19.3
Avg Points	623.9	892.7	220.5	578.4	2315.6

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Generic Top 1000 Team:

Based on the above table, we can form a consensus top 1,000 team based on the most selected premiums and non-premiums. 

There wasn’t too much movement in the generic team this week, with the main change being Steele moving out for Andrew Brayshaw. G. Clark saw the largest ownership increase (+524) but was already in a fair number of top 1,000 teams (424) – so much for waiting for the bubble. Most coaches look to have moved out one of Coniglio (-20% ownership in the top 1,000), Martin (-32%) or Daicos (-36%) – however they remain in enough teams to stay in the consensus squad.

It looks fairly straightforward in terms of completing your defence and midfield – there are plenty of good options. They key questions look to be – which bulldogs players do you finish your forward line with (Bontempelli, Smith, English, Liberatore)? Do you keep Coniglio and Butters? And what will happen with our rucks? 

Consensus Top 1000 Team
	Avg			Avg
George Hewett	118		Lachie Neale	132
James Sicily	116		Clayton Oliver	126
Sam Docherty	110		Jack Macrae	122
Jayden Short	109		Christian Petracca	117
Jack Crisp	106		Patrick Cripps	116
Nick Daicos	80		Andrew Brayshaw	114
Patrick McCartin	70		Touk Miller	114
Sam De Koning	64		Greg Clark	74
			Maurice Rioli	60
			Robbie McComb	58
			Jack Carroll	55
	Avg			Avg
Josh Dunkley	114		Jarrod Witts	120
Isaac Heeney	106		Braydon Preuss	110
Will Brodie	105		Sam Hayes	75
Stephen Coniglio	93
Zak Butters	92
Nic Martin	82
Cooper Hamilton	61
Malcolm Rosas	54