Data analysis: Fixtures and structures, Round 16

We have made it through the byes and are into the home stretch. It is now time to nail our last couple of trades and pray to the fantasy gods for no more injuries!

To help with your decisions and planning, I will take a look at the strength of schedule for each team’s run home. I’ll also take a look at some ownership data so that you can check in on how your team stacks up versus the consensus top 1,000 team.

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Strength of Schedule

The below table shows the average number of SuperCoach points that each team’s opponent has conceded for the upcoming games and each team’s average score and conceded amount.

• We can see that Gold Coast has the easiest schedule with 1,699 average points allowed and that Melbourne has the hardest schedule at 1,600 points.
• North Melbourne is the easiest matchup (no surprises there!) – conceding a whopping 1,836 points on average. Somewhat surprisingly, Carlton has been the toughest matchup with a stingy 1,548 points conceded on average.

Now this doesn’t mean that Touk Miller is going to average 140 and Clayton Oliver is going to average 75 – but could help tip you either way on some of those borderline decisions.

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• The Suns have it easy (hello first finals appearance?) – Look at getting T. Miller in if you don’t have him and it’s another reason for Witts as your Preuss / English replacement.
• Richmond has an easy schedule too – enough of a reason to hold onto Short?
• Based on recent form and the run home I would also like to get Laird or Mills into my side – although I imagine not many would have the cash or trades.
• The Bulldogs have the 3^rd toughest schedule – I might not trade in another bulldog if I already have four or five of them.
• GWS have a hard schedule too – This suggests getting rid of Preuss and avoiding the likes of Taranto or Kelly. I think you have to hang onto Coniglio based on recent form.

There are plenty more examples so take what you need from below and also consider this with your captain choices each week.

Team Name	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	Total		Avg. Scored	Avg. Allowed
Gold Coast Suns	1,660	1,648	1,694	1,587	1,805	1,751	1,611	1,836	1,699		1612	1689
Richmond	1,805	1,689	1,836	1,576	1,587	1,576	1,751	1,694	1,689		1651	1648
Hawthorn	1,626	1,665	1,805	1,836	1,628	1,689	1,648	1,575	1,684		1549	1751
Adelaide Crows	1,594	1,751	1,660	1,627	1,548	1,805	1,836	1,576	1,674		1636	1665
North Melbourne	1,611	1,660	1,648	1,751	1,694	1,627	1,665	1,689	1,668		1465	1836
Sydney Swans	1,694	1,575	1,576	1,665	1,626	1,836	1,660	1,628	1,657		1673	1627
Geelong Cats	1,836	1,594	1,548	1,576	1,575	1,628	1,689	1,805	1,656		1689	1611
Essendon	1,627	1,587	1,689	1,660	1,836	1,626	1,576	1,648	1,656		1606	1694
Collingwood	1,689	1,836	1,665	1,694	1,576	1,594	1,627	1,548	1,653		1640	1660
Carlton	1,628	1,805	1,611	1,626	1,665	1,587	1,594	1,660	1,647		1753	1548
West Coast	1,648	1,548	1,751	1,628	1,689	1,665	1,576	1,611	1,639		1489	1805
St Kilda	1,548	1,576	1,575	1,805	1,751	1,611	1,587	1,627	1,635		1672	1628
Fremantle	1,576	1,628	1,627	1,648	1,594	1,575	1,805	1,626	1,635		1725	1576
Port Adelaide	1,576	1,626	1,594	1,611	1,660	1,648	1,694	1,665	1,634		1724	1576
Brisbane Lions	1,575	1,694	1,626	1,689	1,648	1,548	1,628	1,594	1,625		1705	1587
Western Bulldogs	1,587	1,627	1,628	1,594	1,611	1,576	1,626	1,751	1,625		1724	1575
GWS Giants	1,751	1,576	1,587	1,548	1,627	1,694	1,575	1,576	1,617		1673	1626
Melbourne	1,665	1,611	1,576	1,575	1,576	1,660	1,548	1,587	1,600		1707	1594

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Generic Top 1,000 “Why doesn’t my team look like this” Team

We look to have just about gone full premium. How coaches have dealt with the ruck crisis looks like it will be a key decider on the run home.

• The first few changes are fairly straightforward:
  • Last midfield premium position filled by Laird.
  • Bontempelli into the forward line.
  • Shuffling of rookies see’s McCartin, Rosas and C. Stephens cashed in.
• We then see a variety of approaches for the ruck line:
  • English has largely been held and is still in 70% of the top 1,000 teams.
  • 90% of the top 1,000 now have Witts.
  • Cover for English has been spread fairly evenly across D. Cameron (36%), S. Darcy (35%) and L. Jackson (29%).
• There are also a few good players outside the consensus team if you are looking for a relative point of difference – J. Dawson (32% owned), C. Mills (33%) and S. Walsh (32%).

Consensus Top 1000 Team
	Avg			Avg
James Sicily	115		Lachie Neale	129
George Hewett	114		Clayton Oliver	128
Sam Docherty	112		Rory Laird	124
Jack Sinclair	110		Jack Macrae	122
Jack Crisp	104		Touk Miller	115
Jayden Short	103		Andrew Brayshaw	113
Jacob Wehr	62		Patrick Cripps	112
Massimo D’Ambrosio	52		Christian Petracca	106
			Greg Clark	65
			Cooper Hamilton	61
			Mitch Owens	39
	Avg			Avg
Tim English	120		Jarrod Witts	118
Marcus Bontempelli	113		Sean Darcy	103
Josh Dunkley	112		Brynn Teakle	30
Will Brodie	107
Luke Parker	104
Stephen Coniglio	101
Maurice Rioli	52
Judson Clarke	45