Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 17

Argh I sat on my hands, and it brought my first rank slide in a while. 

I really wanted another look at my targets like Cripps and Mills and opted for a safe score of 75 from Dev Rob. 

I’m now out 313 spots to exactly 1300.  

Not too bad really with a sub-par score of 2462 which included poor scores from Witts, Brayshaw, Day, Sheezel, Laird, Taranto, Cogs and Cameron.

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In hindsight, the play was to trade Fyfe out and bring Houston in which would’ve brought me another rank rise.  Now I need to trade Fyfe, and I’ve lost that Mid/Fwd cover I wanted. 

In the words of Richard Marx, I should’ve known better.

Fyfe, Cincotta and Ford are the trade out options for me so I’m looking at players $541.5k and under and that is reflected in my watchlist. 

Unfortunately, the Houston rocket has sailed like his match-winning goal. 

Full premo might have to wait with the news Josh Dunkley is now confirmed out for 1-2 weeks.a

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My Watchlist

Touk Miller (MID $592.6k) – He makes the list due his 40-score staying in his cycle for 2 more weeks of footy.  He will likely fall into my price category if I have the patience.

Sam Docherty (DEF $535k) – Definitely playing half back and has bottomed out now.  A great option who is only in 7% of teams.

Bailey Dale (DEF $527.9k) – 5 round average of 105.8 but JJ is back before Supercoach finals which is a turn off.

Sam Walsh (MID $517.9k) – Only the one 100 score in the past four matches.  Not sure I can dive in, even with the possibility of Fwd status.

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Max Gawn (RUC $517.9k) – A good chance he will get Fwd status.  Moving Dunkley into the mids to accommodate this is a consideration.  The ruck fixture run is not the best.

Ben Keays (MID/FWD $506k) – Dropped out of the CBA rotation which is the concern with him.  Still on a tear.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $494.4k) – Sub ton on his return but was the clear number 1 mid with 72% CBA’s.  Simply ran out of petrol towards the end of the game so will be much better for the run.

Angus Brayshaw (DEF $474k) – He’s clearly in the midfield with Clarry out, but you’d think that won’t last.  3 round average of 100.

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Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $468.8k) – Still in the frame as a trade in with Aaron Hall out.

Patrick Cripps (MID $465.9k) –He’s the main guy in the middle and has back-to-back tons now.

Harry Himmelberg (DEF/FWD $405k) – Should be good for a 90 average in this role across half back, if he keeps it.

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Jeremy Cameron (FWD $395.2k) – A break-even of 178 when he returns.

Callum Mills (MID $404.1k) – Ripe for the picking with a break-even of 47.  Both 76% CBA’s and TOG are good signs.

Angus Sheldrick (MID/FWD $316.5k) – This kid is so good.  Still has a negative break-even and could be a straight swap for Fyfe keeping that Mid/Fwd cover.

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Break-even Analysis

MUST HAVE’S

• N/A

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CONSIDER

• Lachie Fogarty (MID/FWD $167.4k BE -55) – Stats from last week look pretty good, especially the 7 tackles.  One bad game rule applies here with Hewett the sub.
• Sam Flanders (MID/FWD $304.6k BE -46) – He’s in form but Touk should be back this week.
• David Cunningham (MID/FWD $163.8k BE -46) – Former first round draft pick coming back from injury.  Same rule applies as Fogarty.
• Oisin Mullin (DEF $102.4k, BE -33) – If he’s back in the Geelong team he’s in mine.  Continues to play well in VFL.
• Liam Henry (MID/FWD $329.7k BE -18) – Role change being more off half back.  Not sure it will last the season so passing.
• Angus Sheldrick (MID/FWD $316.5k BE -15) – Just a very good footballer.  Good option as a 23^rd player who can provide you much needed injury/suspension coverage.
• Jaspa Fletcher (MID $204.2k, BE -13) – Should keep his spot with Dunkley likely out and playing good footy.
• Ryan Maric (FWD $140k, BE -12) – Late in and played really well for his 72 points which hopefully means he keeps his spot.

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• Brennan Cox (DEF $449.4k BE 32) – If you can’t afford his teammate, he could be a decent gamble.
• Hugh McCluggage (MID $506k BE 33) – Sicily has knocked him into form.
• Ben Keays (MID/FWD $506k BE 44) – Dropped out of the CBA’s which is very concerning.
• Callum Mills (MID 404.1k BE 47) – He does look the clear #1 trade in target this week and should keep a great role with Chad Warner out for a few more weeks at least.  I’m just petrified of an injury reoccurrence.
• Tarryn Thomas (MID/FWD $328.8k BE 48) – Still doing the business, even with LDU back.
• Alex Witherden (DEF $402.1k BE 60) – In form and you know the ball will be down there more often than not.  Has been prone to a dropping throughout his career.

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TRADE OUT OPTIONS

• Bailey Humphrey (MID/FWD $365.8k, BE 121) – Hopefully you listened and sold him last week.  If not, please trade him now.
• Stephen Coniglio (MID/FWD $506.9k BE 90) – If you can luxury trade him out I would.  I’m sick of seeing him in my side and there is absolute Buckley’s he is in my side next season.
• Will Day (DEF/MID $497.7k BE 77) – Another perfect luxury trade out option on the back of his dismal 65 where Ward pushed him out of the CBA’s.
• Eddie Ford (FWD $261.3k, BE 69) – A fixture away to the Cattery doesn’t fill me with any confidence as Dunkley cover.

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• Josh Weddle (DEF $346.7k, BE 66) – Decent score of 80 keeps his BE relatively constant.
• Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $313.1, BE 58) – May well be out for the season so trade, unless you can use him for looping purposes.
• Devon Robertson (MID $283.3k, B/E 53) – Take away the horrific 33 and he’s been scoring very well.
• Alex Cincotta (DEF/MID $255.9k, BE 52) – I feel like he’s losing his spot any minute, but the Blues are winning.

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Tag Watch

Keidean Coleman / Conor McKenna – Xavier O’Niell will get a job on one of the running backs.

Tom Green / Josh Kelly – Conor Nash will likely have a job to do here.

Christian Petracca – Marcus Windhager might get a cooling job, especially if Trac starts dominating.

Dan Houston – I feel like his form will bring attention, likely from Nick Holman.

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Patrick Dangerfield – Liam Shiels will go to him if he starts hot.

Jordan Dawson – If I was the Bombers coach, Jye Caldwell would be deployed to limit the opposing Captains influence.

Darcy Parish – I’d be surprised if Keays wasn’t on him.  Still hasn’t successfully broken a tag in my view.

Adam Cerra / Patrick Cripps – I’m positive James Aish will be getting a very close eye on one these two, especially from stoppages.

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Potential Trades

1. OUT     Fyfe + Ford/Cincotta      IN         Docherty + $102k DPP player
2. OUT      Fyfe + Ford                   IN         Mills + Bauer + $115.9k

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