How to Prepare for H2H NRL Supercoach Finals

As we said in preseason, if you’re not first you’re last.

Making your H2H finals is an achievement, but no one remembers who finished second.

The time to start planning your path to the title is right now.

Serious H2H players know the true secret to winning your league is your finals strength of schedule.

Because while the overall difference in points over a whole season is crucial, in a H2H finals format, it all boils down to just four weeks of matchups.

So if you’re lucky enough to progress to the finals of your league, having the match-ups in your favour will give you a major advantage.

Your finals will typically run for four rounds and it’s important to check your league settings to know when they start and finish.

It could be 22-25, 23-26 or 24-27. Good luck if it’s a round 27 final which will mean you’re also factoring in restings.

Experienced coaches also know that match-ups have a different impact for each position on the field.

Largely in the forwards, tougher games do not have as big of an impact on scoring.

But in the backs and halves, the big scores can have a huge say with major scoring variations. 

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Finding players who can play above their value when it matters is one of the critical components of winning your league. And with less than 10 rounds to go until Finals start, now is the time to be considering every trade with respect to the team you think can win it all.

With have a decent enough sample size of data to know the good and bad teams in SuperCoach. Leveraging this is crucial for your forward planning.

As it stands there are six teams we consider that are ‘hard’ matchups based on their defense; Bulldogs, Roosters, Panthers, Storm, Sharks and Broncos. 

There are seven sides we consider ‘easy’ matchups based on conceding a lot of points; Dragons, Tigers, Raiders, Knights, Eels, Titans and Bunnies.

Everyone else is somewhere in between. And while we know game plans and styles can also dictate how certain sides match-up, the general data tells a compelling story in most instances.

Now we know that not everyone will enter this period flush with trades, but ideally most H2H coaches will give themselves 6-8 to play with for the four weeks of finals.

This would allow for the flexibility to truly exploit the matchups on a week-to-week basis.

Realistically, if you’re in a good position already to qualify for finals, looking at the team with the best start to finals, or the teams with the best four week run and attacking those squads right now may be the better tactic to ensure you’re not using trades in the home stretch of the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the good and not so good draws for the various Finals Systems.

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Round 22-25 Finals

The Good

• Sharks: An absolute dream run with four ‘easy’ matchups. Knowing who to pickup is always the hard part with them.
• Panthers: The Storm matchup in the preliminary final (r24) shapes as a difficult game, but the bookended matchups are very solid for a team who know how to score points.
• Bulldogs: Two easy games and two ‘moderate’ games. A side whose overachieved on preseason form but need to be taken seriously.
• Sea Eagles: The round 22 bye is a banana peel, but winnable games exist either side. A grand final against the Tigers is every clubs dream.
• Roosters: The round 23 bye is tough; games against the Eels and Titans look anything but.
• Broncos: Another side with a bye during finals, but post Origin this team could fire and they’ve got some high scoring matchups during that time.
• Tigers: Not many relevant SuperCoach players but the draw doesn’t look too difficult.

The Bad

• Eels: Doesn’t get much harder than their round 23-25 run. Could hurt if you’re heavily invested and likely good anti-POD opportunities on guys like Dylan Brown.
• Titans: Three tough games and an easier one against the Dragons in round 24.
• Dolphins: A brutal run home, and given all they’ve achieved early it remains to be seen how they’ll go against the best sides. Perhaps their player stand tall, but perhaps selling them on a high is the move.
• Dragons: Another club with three tough games, albeit not much relevance from their side.
• Raiders: The two best defensive sides in their four games makes the Raiders a tough team to be heavily invested in for Finals.
• Cowboys: The bye in the grand final makes them a very difficult side to be invested in. This will be offset however by the first final against the Tigers, and a winnable game against the Raiders.

Summary of potential moves:

• Trading Drinky to Turbo in round 23
• Buying Sharks outside backs
• Buying latrell in round 24
• Selling Dylan Brown to Burton in round 23
• Punting on DCE as a POD from round 25

Round 23-26 Finals

The Good

• Sharks: Three ‘easy’ ones and a game away against the Warriors in the Grand Final. That’s about as good as it gets.
• Panthers: Another three ‘easy’ ones, the round 24 blockbuster against the Storm however may prove difficult however. That being said, the Panthers can beat anyone on their day.
• Roosters: Taking out the bye in 23, their run is juicy. It is likely they’ll be aiming to win well too late in the season and push into the top 4 or even top 2.
• Knights: Another side who you’d expect will have a lot to play for late in the season. A round 23 match with the Tigers and games against the Rabbits and Titans could be high scoring affairs with none of those teams showing any defensive instincts.
• Sea Eagles: In preseason this looked like the best draw of the lot. That was until the Bulldogs came out as the new best defensive side in SuperCoach. That makes the grand final a tough prospect, but the other three games are awesome.
• Bulldogs: Only one ‘easy’ game, but thankfully no ‘hard’ ones on current form.

The Bad

• Dolphins: play three of the best defensive teams to finish the season. On current attacking form it might not slow them down, but it might.
• Eels: Panthers, Roosters and Broncos in a row doesn’t get much harder. A grand final against the Dragons looks good but it may be hard to get there.
• Raiders: the round 25 and 26 matchups don’t get much harder, albeit the Sea Eagles and Cows games could be decent for scoring.
• Warriors: two ‘hard’ games isn’t ideal, but another side who could be matchup proof if they’re on song.
• Cowboys: Broncos, Storm and a bye make them a very difficult team to be reliant on during this period.

Summary of potential moves:

• Investing in Sharks backs
• Buying Latrell in round 24, selling to Ponga in 26
• Selling Ponga in round 24 to James Tedesco
• Investing heavily in Roosters from round 24
• Panthers right edge players in round 25 and 26

Round 24-27 Finals

The Good

• Roosters: It simply doesn’t get any better than this. Four ‘easy’ ones for a side we know will be playing hard football at this time to finish as high up the ladder as possible.
• Sharks: Two nice games against the Knights and Dragons precede slightly tougher ones against the Warriors and Sea Eagles.
• Panthers: a tough opening encounter against the Storm is offset by three beauties. They may rest players in round 27 against the Titans if they can afford to but otherwise that’s a great grand final.
• Dragons: Three ‘easy’ ones and a tougher one against their local rival the Sharks. 
• Knights: Should finish strongly against the Rabbits, Titans and Phins.

The Bad

• Warriors: Bulldogs, Sharks and the bye in the Grand Final. A hard team to be invested in during the time, albeit a late season surge like last year could offset the matchups.
• Cowboys: Another side with a bye round at a bad time, plus the Bulldogs in the Grand Final. Far from ideal.
• Dolphins: Three ‘hard’ ones to begin finals before the Knights in 27.
• Raiders: Taking on the Panthers in finals is less than ideal. The Roosters aren’t much easier at the moment either. A grand final against the Dragons is ok but you’ve got to get there.
• Broncos: a bye in the opening round of Finals is rough, as is a Grand Final against the Storm.

Summary of potential moves:

• Investing heavily in Sydney Roosters
• Honestly just need to repeat the point – invest heavily in Sydney Roosters
• Be cautious with Panthers who may rest in round 27. Consider getting Titans if they’re undermanned
• Buy Eels in round 26.
• Buy Knights in round 25. Latrell to Ponga in 26.
• Cody Walker in round 24. Sell to Dyl Brown in 26.

So there you have it. Hopefully this in-depth knowledge can help you in navigating your way through to glory in your league.