Spy Talk: Ponga vs Latrell, NRL Supercoach Round 1

G’day troops,

This season in addition to the podcast I’ll be dropping a weekly article which will specifically look into the key issues that arise in the Supercoach scene, and you’d better believe there are plenty.

To kicks things off let’s chat pre-season dilemmas and issues.

In fact, I have just one major dilemma to begin because it’s a doozy and will lead nicely into next week’s article.

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Kalyn Ponga v Latrell Mitchell

This is one that is growing in chat in recent weeks.

I love Trell, I really do, but I love KP more.

But that doesn’t really matter does it. You just want to know who is likely to score you more points to begin a charge to the SC title.

Kalyn Ponga 2020-2024

Averages in order from oldest to most recent: 80PPG, 68PPG, 50PPG, 87PPG and 81PPG.

Key notes:

In 2020 he averaged 80PPG. Tick!

In 2021 he managed 73PPG in full matches.

In 2022 Kalyn only managed 14 games and lasted 9 and 15 minutes respectively in two of those.

He averaged 57PPG outside of these two games. A poor year. Disregard?

Notably in 2023 he started at 5/8 and had a very early HIA in round 2.

When he was officially named in the 1 jersey for the last 12 games he averaged 105.25PPG!

Interestingly he only goal kicked for eight of those last 12 games, but it is also important to note that averages in the backend of a season are typically far higher than early on.

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This was all during the Knights run to the finals of 10 straight from memory and they played some sides already with a mind on Bali. Nonetheless, huge!

In 2024 KP averaged 85.5PPG outside of the ‘hip pointer’ game where he only lasted until just after halftime and could barely move.

There is one big con here.

Kalyn’s total games played list is as below (oldest to latest)

18, 14, 14, 18 and 15.

This is not good! I know he had a big phase of head knocks which he has overcome in recent years (touch wood) while last year was a foot injury.

Either way you slice it there is concern here, but KP starting with a decent run, possibly coming into the prime of his career and priced at an 81PPG average is very enticing in my eyes.

It’s also important to note that in 2023 he played 18 games plus Origin and finals.

If the foot injury is an isolated incident he is a chance to do damage and perhaps stay injury free.

There is no reason he can’t average 85-100PPG. The last two seasons I like as a sample.

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Latrell Mitchell 2020-2024

If we look as per the above analysis we can see that Latrell’s five year averages are:

Oldest to most recent: 59PPG, 82PPG, 85PPG, 77PPG and 89PPG.

This is remarkable scoring outside of his average five years ago (disregard this!)

There is less to delve into because unlike KP his averages are typically based on closer to 80 minutes being played (less early injuries), however his games played is similar to KP and make for tough reading.

Mitchell’s total games played list is as below (oldest to mot recent)

14, 17, 14, 16 and 11.

The big pro here is that he has Wayne Bennett back and is looking as fit as I’ve ever seen him.

There’s no reason why he can’t average 85-100PPG as per KP.

Comparative totals/averages across 5 years:

Kalyn Ponga – 73.20PPG average which goes up to 80PPG if you take out the really clear early in-game injuries and games played at 5/8. I believe this is very relevant.

I’m happy to discount the 2022 season of 50PPG also because he is simply not that player these days (87.5ppg in this scenario).

Average games played last 5 years = 15.8 (Getting past the common headknocks/HIAs is a recent positive)

Latrell Mitchell – 78.40PPG average which goes up to 83.25PPG if you exclude the 2020 average which is a long time ago and is not relevant in my opinion.

Average games played last 5 years = 14.4

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What do the stats suggest?

I take from that that Latrell is a more consistent scorer and tends to last the game more often when he steps onto the field.

But…

Ponga at fullback is about the same as Latrell when you compare him at fullback in 80 minute games.

The risk based on history is that if KP cops a knock early and is forced off and you don’t score well in an early season game this would hurt, but this hasn’t really happened since round 2 in 2023.

There is the difference of KP being $76k cheaper. This is not insignificant.

They both played in poor teams in 2024 with the Bunnies struggling and Newcastle being an 8 point try away from the worst attack in the comp.

We might have to do one more face off challenge to split the 2 and that’s the draw.

Newcastle face Wests Tigers, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, Bulldogs whilst the Bunnies face Dolphins, Dragons, Sharks, Penrith, Roosters.

Well… KP wins the opening three weeks, whilst round 4 and 5 are bad for Newcastle but also tricky for the Bunnies.

The lack of bye helps Latrell, but I really only like his round 1 clash.

In saying this, does matchup really worry Latrell? Doubtful!

Maybe a lack of supporting cast in the spine costs him space, but he ups his playmaking responsibilities.

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THE VERDICT

I think at nearly $80k cheaper and just a gut feel that Ponga is about to go into the prime of his footy career, so I’ll take him and reassess come round 4, but I tell you what this has basically told us there isn’t a heap between them.

Maybe both is the right call, but I can’t do that with Turbo in my side unless I go triple fullback guns which I’m slightly against as of right now and will chat about next week.

I have tried to keep the analysis objective as my team currently has KP in it and I think the last two years help as it’s a good sample size and reflect current ability and output.

KP’s 80 minute fullback games see him average 85PPG which is music to my ears.

However the round 4 bye has me spooked a little given Latrell’s numbers and lack of said bye.

The extra $$ saved and what that does to the rest of my side may make the decision for me.

Alas, there is still a bit to unfold here and I am nowhere near as sure as I was two hours ago. Welcome back Supercoach.

Cheers, Spy